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Winter 2011-2012 Status Report


wxsniss

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Just how bad is your location faring compared to other US locations?

Using NOAA data, I've compiled seasonal total snowfall and calculated % normal.

(note: most locations start Dec 1, so does not include Halloween freakshow, except for BDR and JFK)

The numbers:

Graphical display:

post-3106-0-68353700-1326578884.jpg

Fold Normal --- this better conveys those sites that are getting a complete shutout (0% normal):

post-3106-0-48373400-1326578892.jpg

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Well, I just looked up my numbers for last year and I can't believe that to date, I'm actually ahead of where I was a year ago. Currently at 38.4" for the season whereas last year on this date, I was at 34.4" and finished the season at 121.3".

The numbers are a little skewed as 10" of this year's total came on the day before Thanksgiving, none of which lasted otg. That's where we're behind here this season--snowpack. I had over a foot on the ground last year on this date and now, 9".

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Well, I just looked up my numbers for last year and I can't believe that to date, I'm actually ahead of where I was a year ago. Currently at 38.4" for the season whereas last year on this date, I was at 34.4" and finished the season at 121.3".

The numbers are a little skewed as 10" of this year's total came on the day before Thanksgiving, none of which lasted otg. That's where we're behind here this season--snowpack. I had over a foot on the ground last year on this date and now, 9".

Yeah this time last year we were watching from the outside as SNE got smoked time and time again. We really turned it on late last year. That's pretty crazy that you got like 90" of snow from here on out last winter. That's a nice finish to the winter.

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Using my Waterbury snowfall data, I’ve been monitoring the snowfall progress at points this season, but planned to reassess at the 50” mark; it’s a good round number and is typically in the range of the ¼ mark for the season. In the plot below I’ve got the snow totals through Jan 14 for ’07-’11 (blue gradient pattern bars) and ’12 (red bar). Also shown is the mean value for those six seasons (green bar). The error bar on the mean value represents one standard deviation (29.6") for the data set. Thus far, ’11-’12 snowfall at this location is certainly on the low side (~20” below the mean) but it is well within one S.D. In fact all the seasons shown (even the high seasons of ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09) essentially fall within that one S.D. window except ‘06-‘07, which is the real outlier up through January. It wouldn’t be too hard for this season to make up some ground on the next closest season (‘09-‘10) because we’re currently only ~14” behind that one and only about 7” of snow fell in the entire second half of that month. While ‘06-‘07 did have a nice finish, let’s be thankful we’re not there at this point.

14JAN12I.jpg

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Using my Waterbury snowfall data, I’ve been monitoring the snowfall progress at points this season, but planned to reassess at the 50” mark; it’s a good round number and is typically in the range of the ¼ mark for the season. In the plot below I’ve got the snow totals through Jan 14 for ’07-’11 (blue gradient pattern bars) and ’12 (red bar). Also shown is the mean value for those six seasons (green bar). The error bar on the mean value represents one standard deviation (29.6") for the data set. Thus far, ’11-’12 snowfall at this location is certainly on the low side (~20” below the mean) but it is well within one S.D. In fact all the seasons shown (even the high seasons of ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09) essentially fall within that one S.D. window except ‘06-‘07, which is the real outlier up through January. It wouldn’t be too hard for this season to make up some ground on the next closest season (‘09-‘10) because we’re currently only ~14” behind that one and only about 7” of snow fell in the entire second half of that month. While ‘06-‘07 did have a nice finish, let’s be thankful we’re not there at this point.

Interesting! I think that speaks to Waterbury VT being on that sliver of northern-lower-48 that has regularly seen snow this season...

You can appreciate that from these NOAA snowfall maps... Dec 15, Jan 6, Jan 15...

Northern VT has been ok throughout.

The area that benefitted the most from the dip in the AO / relaxing of the AK vortex in the last 2 weeks spans Dakotas to upper Mid-West:

post-3106-0-35346900-1326648288.jpg

post-3106-0-07727200-1326648302.jpg

post-3106-0-78859600-1326648315.jpg

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Graphical display:

post-3106-0-68353700-1326578884.jpg

Fold Normal --- this better conveys those sites that are getting a complete shutout (0% normal):

post-3106-0-48373400-1326578892.jpg

That log scale hides the very strong gradient between BOS and ORH.

At Sudbury (the halfway point between the two), we had negligable accumulations (2-3" max) in the October storm, followed by maybe a summed 3" during meteo Winter.

Sure feels like nothing.........

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Using my Waterbury snowfall data, I’ve been monitoring the snowfall progress at points this season, but planned to reassess at the 50” mark; it’s a good round number and is typically in the range of the ¼ mark for the season. In the plot below I’ve got the snow totals through Jan 14 for ’07-’11 (blue gradient pattern bars) and ’12 (red bar). Also shown is the mean value for those six seasons (green bar). The error bar on the mean value represents one standard deviation (29.6") for the data set. Thus far, ’11-’12 snowfall at this location is certainly on the low side (~20” below the mean) but it is well within one S.D. In fact all the seasons shown (even the high seasons of ‘07-‘08 and ‘08-‘09) essentially fall within that one S.D. window except ‘06-‘07, which is the real outlier up through January. It wouldn’t be too hard for this season to make up some ground on the next closest season (‘09-‘10) because we’re currently only ~14” behind that one and only about 7” of snow fell in the entire second half of that month. While ‘06-‘07 did have a nice finish, let’s be thankful we’re not there at this point.

14JAN12I.jpg

Good data, J.Spin. I was looking through the Stowe CoCoRAHS observations (I think that guy is in the lower village) and that's showing 40.7" so far this season which sounds in the ballpark. I think we may be more like 45" as I think he's missing a day or two of light snowfall in there looking through the records. The big differences between here and Waterbury was that upslope event after Christmas that really favored the western slopes more so than this side. J.Spin in Waterbury had 9.7" (a lot of 10"+ amounts up and down the west slope) whereas here at my place I remember only getting 3" or so. CoCoRAHS in the Lower Village reported only an inch another mile or two east. There was a very sharp gradient with that one as I was working at Topnotch a few miles closer to Mansfield and had around 6". You basically dropped an inch for each mile you traveled east on RT 108.

I'd feel pretty safe saying I'm near 43-45" on the season with some crude tallies. And we got completely whiffed by the October storm.... so we've made up some serious ground after starting the season so far behind just about every other location to the south and/or east of here where October gave some areas a 10-30" head start.

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