Seeing as Jan 15 marks the official 1/2 point of Meteorological winter...

[Clinch Leatherwood]

The following seasons were held to single digits in every month through January IMBY:

1958-'59- 15.5" through the end of January and ended with 52.7"

1962-'63- 21.4" through the end of January and ended with 52.9"

1968-'69 (lol)- 12.8" through the end of January and ended with 86.5"

1979-'80- 6.6" through the end of January and ended with current record for futility with 19.9"

1985-'86- 15.9" through the end of January and ended with 33.2"

1988-'89- 5.6" through the end of January and ended with the 2nd most futile total of 20.3"

1991-'92- 10.6" through the end of January and ended with 4th most futile total on record of 26.6"

1994-'95- 8.2" through the end of January and ended up with the 3rd most futile total on record of 22.5"

1996-'97- 18.4" through the end of January and ended up with 63.5" on the season. Salvaged by the best storm of my life

2006-'07- 3.5" through the end of January and ended up with 34.5"

Best season is 1968-'69 with 86.5"

Worst is 1979-'80 with 19.9"

Mean season is 41.3"

My seasonal total currently stands at 6.5" and is doubtful to change much from now until month's end; if that is indeed the case, then that would render 1979-'80, 1988-'89, 1994-'95 and 2006-'07 as the best indicators of where we may be headed with a mean snowfall of 24.3" IMBY.

Horrific.

Good stuff, probably shows historically we needed to see the clean break towards the end of this month for it to stick.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was posting to scott a few weeks ago...seems as though there is a weenie term every winter and SSW is it for this year. Remember we had annular in the tropical threads on eastern for awhile? It's a legitimate phernomenon but poorly understood...so it's seems to be a breading ground for weenies and less than informed mets to latch on and act like they know what they are talking about.

Well... At least for me, I have been following formal papers on the subject matter for 10 years, if you have any technical questions that directly demonstrate why/how these correlations work, I would be happy to divulge - and quote sources accordingly so as not to be demonstrated as less than informed...

In fact, I was the one who first introduced this subject matter to Eastern back in 2005, discussing in great length and technical detail the going theoretical research regarding propagating stratospheric warming events - long before people started coining it as "SSWs".

Also, the relation and understanding is not as unknown as you and others have intimated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well... At least for me, I have been following formal papers on the subject matter for 10 years, if you have any technical questions that directly demonstrate why/how these correlations work, I would be happy to divulge - and quote sources accordingly so as not to be demonstrated as less than informed...

In fact, I was the one who first introduced this subject matter to Eastern back in 2005, discussing in great length and technical detail the going theoretical research regarding propagating stratospheric warming events - long before people started coining it as "SSWs".

Also, the relation and understanding is not as unknown as you and others have intimated.

Among the weenies and even a few mets it is....which is what we are saying.

No one is claiming that you are uninformed on the matter.

[CoastalWx]

Well... At least for me, I have been following formal papers on the subject matter for 10 years, if you have any technical questions that directly demonstrate why/how these correlations work, I would be happy to divulge - and quote sources accordingly so as not to be demonstrated as less than informed...

In fact, I was the one who first introduced this subject matter to Eastern back in 2005, discussing in great length and technical detail the going theoretical research regarding propagating stratospheric warming events - long before people started coining it as "SSWs".

Also, the relation and understanding is not as unknown as you and others have intimated.

I don't think he meant what you thought he meant? I think he meant that every year features a weenie term, that weenies run with, in hopes of giving them heavy snow.

[OSUmetstud]

Well... At least for me, I have been following formal papers on the subject matter for 10 years, if you have any technical questions that directly demonstrate why/how these correlations work, I would be happy to divulge - and quote sources accordingly so as not to be demonstrated as less than informed...

In fact, I was the one who first introduced this subject matter to Eastern back in 2005, discussing in great length and technical detail the going theoretical research regarding propagating stratospheric warming events - long before people started coining it as "SSWs".

Also, the relation and understanding is not as unknown as you and others have intimated.

the mechanisms for the development of stratospheric warming and it's propogation are not well understood...even in the meteorology community. Yeah, the basics are I guess..but the entire phenomenon? I'm not sure. If they were, there'd many using them to long range forecast with skill. I wasn't talking about you...anyway...just in general.

[OKpowdah]

EP flux forecasted to turn poleward. Also, the ECMWF projection of stratospheric temperatures is pretty impressive. Normally, an SSW comes as a wave, in which high stratospheric temperatures fall thereafter, but the Euro plateaus 10mb temperatures through next week

[Typhoon Tip]

the mechanisms for the development of stratospheric warming and it's propogation are not well understood...even in the meteorology community. Yeah, the basics are I guess..but the entire phenomenon? I'm not sure. If they were, there'd many using them to long range forecast with skill. I wasn't talking about you...anyway...just in general.

No yeah - I absolutely agree there (bold) - and there is DEFINITELY room for theoretical expansion (understanding) in all this.

----------------------------------

For the general reader: I understand that the EP Flux numbers may or may not jive for the time being, but there should be a partial disconnect there. Negative U-Mean wind anomalies are shown to be correlated with the current QBO phase over longer durations, where as EP FLux has shorter time-dependencies; on a foundamental level that argues for plausible disparate source regions for forcing.

Either way, the overnight observations now show that the negative U-Mean anomaly has strengthened to stronger than moderate (not yet major), and the region of the pressure depth (altitude) is growing, indicating that a positively differentiating amount of mass is actually involved. The overnight CPC, AO teleconnector (derived off of GEFs mean) is heavely tanked to -2SD by the beginning of week 2. The usual mop-ending takes place thereafter but a few of the members dip even deeper beyond that enough to wonder if the domain in general is beginning to detect the exertion of the mechanically forced collapse of the ambient PV strenght, among the various GEFs members.

Bottom line, with bigger than median amounts of mass reversing flow now it would become more physically difficult NOT to register changes in the dimensions of the PV. It's a matter of when, not "if" at this point going forward, if the idealized model has any veracity.

Having said all that ... The fairly tight clustering to -2 in the foreground is impressive, and would ear-mark the greatest cold to middle latitude signal thus far this previously, winter weather frustrated season. It will be interesting to see what takes place when this gets more measureable/verified, and we end up with a hemispheric cold transport while this maddening Pacific monster-tormentor tries to fight against.

[CoastalWx]

First time I've seen that, Sam. Not bad.

[Typhoon Tip]

EP flux forecasted to turn poleward. Also, the ECMWF projection of stratospheric temperatures is pretty impressive. Normally, an SSW comes as a wave, in which high stratospheric temperatures fall thereafter, but the Euro plateaus 10mb temperatures through next week

...

Thanks for the Product~!~!

I was not aware of these very recent EP numbers, but was referring to the previous data suggestions. That would probably only add to the collapsing AO signal, duh -

[weathafella]

Rays numbers for his by are sobering, in every Nina, the end result was vomitaceous.

[boolean]

im still standing by my 28" prediction for bos.

26.5" left to go!

[Typhoon Tip]

"La Nina conditions and additional subseasonal tropical variability continue to contribute much to the patterns of anomalous convection in the global Tropics."

That's the word from NCEP per their weekly update/address regarding the MJO status report. What I find to be intriguing about that is that the Pacific pattern, definitely how it has preloaded North America this entire autumn and cold season has NEVER looked La Nina-like, and this is the third iteration of MJO incoherency where that La Nina statement was uttered.

Sometimes I wonder if they must have some bullshyt phrases they are supposed to default to in times when their jobs are pointless. Haha. They should come up with something better than that. Hell, I'd take, "We have no idea why La Nina is not expressing on the circulation. In addition, MJO does not currently appear factorable for the next 1-2 weeks" - that would sound brilliant compared to the other.

Anyway, the AO teleconnector overnight is even more impressively negative. More tightly clustered in general, with every member down to -2SD or deeper by D10. Afterword, as usual, there is contention a bit on whether it continutes to go down or recovers up amid the individual memebers, but more members have collapsed to the downward thinking overall enough to suggest that is a growing consensus there.

Meanwhile, the negative U-Mean wind anomalies continue to strengthen in the altitudes over the NP; the emerging flip in the high altitudes of the PV now into the -70 m/s velocity, now down to 30mb and lower, with core still admittedly elevated. However, it will never be AS strong at 30mb as it is at altitudes of typical origin at 5-10mb (typically). Just as 70mb will not have the same degree of anomaly as the 30mb... In other words, the signal always weakens while it downwells. That is true for the temperature component of the warming event as well. Which incidentally is above median at this point as well.

What I like about this analysis is that the teleconnector progs for the AO are in concert with the U-Mean anomaly and its apparent early indications for downwelling behavior.

It is important to not allow the disappointing reigning previous 45 days of winter be our guide. There is still this 2nd half of month, all of February, and for statistical purposes the first half of March. A sharply declining(ed) AO working with any subtle blurps in the PNA would send cold storm signals through the middle latides of N/A in a heart beat.

[OKpowdah]

Nice post Tip.

Some other thoughts after a brief look at things this morning ...

AO is looking quite nice over the next couple weeks as Tip pointed out. Nose dive within the next week and hanging out in the negatives into February.

The stratosphere continues to look interesting. ECMWF is consistent with increasing EP flux convergence over the pole, which is conducive to propagating SSWs. In addition, the ECMWF does not back off the warm temperatures in the upper stratosphere, which I find interesting. As I mentioned before, usually these things come in wave formation, with notable subsequent cooling.

GEFS, in addition to supporting the tumbling AO, also suggesting a fall in the NAO, becoming negative by the start of February; as well as a rise in the PNA by the end of the month, to near neutral by the start of February ... signal? Still far away, but in fact the fantasy range GFS has been suggesting a significant storm around right around February 1st.

Also, another negative E Asia MT event in the last few days may support the redevelopment of a -EPO by the first week of February.

Note the progression of the last event:

[OKpowdah]

let's see which post gets more replies ...

BLIZZARD LIKELY FEBRUARY 1-3

[CoastalWx]

Sam, great post. Nice to see side by side comparison like that.

[Typhoon Tip]

I intend to keep updating the progress of this until we know what the end result ultimately is/was... Good learning tool. The overnight measures haven't significantly changed this overall appeal. And, as Sam has contributed/shown, this will take time - as I and others have intimated numerous times in the past. These top-down teleconnectors have time lags.

That said, the AO prog is still clustered heavily to -2SD in the GEFs mean, deeper than at any other preceding nadir so far this cold season, and the fact that the U-Mean wind anomaly as of last night strengthened in the 5hPa level beyond the scale (exceeding -80m/s!!!), and that early indications via EP Flux and graphical monitoring suggest downwelling to ensue/if not already begun, it becomes harder to believe the tightly clustered GEFs notion of a -2SD by week 2 is mere coincidence. As usual, thereafter there is mop ended dischord among the members as to what it will do next, but I suspect as those incoherent time ranges get nearer a more negative appeal would like emerge.

So... it is noted that there are light to moderate wintery storm threats.. Just wanted cautioned/noted, that none of that should really be "connected" to this/these overviews supplied by Sam/myself/others. This is to suggests with growing confidence that the whole of the hemisphere is likely entering a paradigm more --> winter than we have been thus used to experiencing. In other words, these types of environmental signal-related discourses don't cause specific events; rather, specific events may behavior a certain way do to these influences. Namely, -AO of -2SD, when the preceding 3 months were heavily +AO biased, and thus created a massive cryosphere/associated cold stow N of middle latitudes, the former would like mean a release on macroscales, in the form of general relaxation in the PV gradient up N and a positive low level cold flux around favored conveyors across the Hemisphere. Luckily for winter-weather enthusiasts, one such conveyor is the Siberian/NW Territories/NP route. But that's getting ahead... Anyway, typical storm frequency would like avail of colder thermal fields in general.

It is indeed interesting that this is happening already in the models.

[OKpowdah]

This node of the SSW appears to have reached an end. We'll see what the amplitude is of the next descended node.

Euro still wants to increase EP flux convergence over the pole.

Nice to see the GEFS steady with the AO drop, ...but a little dialed back on the NAO drop and PNA rise.

Still looks like they want to put together an east based -NAO by the start of February.

Also, the E Asia MT event is turning out to be fairly significant. That could support another surge in -EPO ridging maybe by the second week in February.

[Typhoon Tip]

Some genious needs to create a "can f* snow at all index" - the CFSAA. I mean... this is a plague with no apparent cause. One cannot tell me it is for lack of cold. There's plenty of cold. There's been plenty of moisture too.

What there is, is some non-defined physical process that stops the kind of mixing that causes snow. Yeah it snowed the other day. Yeah it's supposed to snow a little tonight. Maybe on Saturday... But notice the major cyclone energy event for this 7 day stretch will be the glacial gobbler at 120+ hours? These pitiful POSers that we are Stockholmed into thinking are good - crap. Then it's back to more garbage time recouperation. It's like being behind to the Patriots by 7 touchdowns and trying to get excited because they gave you the middle of the field and you got a couple back. The reality is. ...your eating schit, period. That's what this year is, a big chomping foray into the wonderment of how much stanky schit we can colllectively eat, and still maintain a grin while doing it.

[OKpowdah]

We've lost John

Still liking the Feb 1-3 period for a major storm for the eastern half of the CONUS. Can't guarentee snow here ... probably won't snow all based on the CFSAA ... but it looks like 562nd massive Alaska vortex of the winter will be ejecting southeast, with a significant trough dropping into the Plains. Wouldn't it be nice to have a -NAO? Anyway, major storm for someone.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Some genious needs to create a "can f* snow at all index" - the CFSAA. I mean... this is a plague with no apparent cause. One cannot tell me it is for lack of cold. There's plenty of cold. There's been plenty of moisture too.

What there is, is some non-defined physical process that stops the kind of mixing that causes snow. Yeah it snowed the other day. Yeah it's supposed to snow a little tonight. Maybe on Saturday... But notice the major cyclone energy event for this 7 day stretch will be the glacial gobbler at 120+ hours? These pitiful POSers that we are Stockholmed into thinking are good - crap. Then it's back to more garbage time recouperation. It's like being behind to the Patriots by 7 touchdowns and trying to get excited because they gave you the middle of the field and you got a couple back. The reality is. ...your eating schit, period. That's what this year is, a big chomping foray into the wonderment of how much stanky schit we can colllectively eat, and still maintain a grin while doing it.

#1 favorite rant of all time.

My hopes have been in the toilet for two+ months so I'm cool with this disaster...those that keep getting all hot and bothered over 7+ day modeled changes are due for much agony.

This is the Richard Gere winter, no matter how many times it looks better the gerbil just keeps on coming.

[Typhoon Tip]

We've lost John

Still liking the Feb 1-3 period for a major storm for the eastern half of the CONUS. Can't guarentee snow here ... probably won't snow all based on the CFSAA ... but it looks like 562nd massive Alaska vortex of the winter will be ejecting southeast, with a significant trough dropping into the Plains. Wouldn't it be nice to have a -NAO? Anyway, major storm for someone.

LOL, ...I'm good. I just think it's hilarious how excited the winter fans now have to be over the prospect of an inch. What have we become -

Oh how unrelenting it can be.

[Typhoon Tip]

If things break right ... we may get all our winter in the first 2 -3 week of February.

[N. OF PIKE]

well being an eternal optomist that does best to overlap as a realist

last witner began in earnest with a 6 week stretch from dec 27 to feb 3 or so...perhaps this winter can go jan 15 into march at perhaps a more pedestrian pace...but also bring up back above average

[Typhoon Tip]

Whatever is causing the AO to decline in the GEFs mean, now down to nearly -3 standard deviations by the end of next week, then vacillating yet remaining negative thereafter, it is becoming less coherently connected to events in the higher altitude PV. That does not mean there won't be for the remainder of this now middle aged winter season.

Although the U-Mean anomalies were of the higher order intensity in the 5-10hPa level ...pretty much half way to the moon.. the "pattern" of the emergence since first detected earlier last week is not typical for those where subsequent downwelling took place. This one appears intense, yet static for vertical displacement. If you recall ...and no how to read, it wasn't abundantly clear that it would - although admittedly it was promising. This winter's been like that - like a 30million a year free agent dud.

The science is young. There may in fact be some physical exertion on the PV without having actually downward propagating anomalies, as yet undefined. Perhaps not... Last year the AO dove and was negative much of the time between December 15 and January 20th, with little or no antecedent coherent signal of this ilk.

Growing signal for a higher impact ...larger type winter storm from the 28th through the 8th of February. I'm liking that time frame because of how the quick and dirty teleconnectors are aligning: The antecedent AO spends 7 days negative, effectively loading cold (despite any local time scale anomalies relative to that, such as our Lake cutter on Monday); the NAO slips negative by next weekend; the PNA has risen from -1SD to +1.5.

That could be like the Rook, Queen, and the Bishop threatening Mate here. However, a defense against that is the MJO; it has rather unexpectedly emerged from incoherence right smack in the middle of the "end of winter" - not sure what it is about the Pacific tropical oceanic/atmospheric coupled system ... but it obsessively hates Phase 7, 8 and 1. Least excuse imaginable all year - the wave just can't wait to get back to Phase 4/5 Prozac. It does this though year to year. Some years the wave strength is biased over the western Pacific region, other years it's not. Now is one of those winters where it's not. And ... joking aside it probably does have something to do with how the layout of the sea-surface temperature distribution between the Indian Ocean the SE of Japan is interacting with the seasonal gradient - gradient drives everything, moisture and temperature. Without gradient in those, there is no need to restore balance; no restoration of forces = nothing happens.

So it is what it is and we just have to deal with the fact that the MJO is perhaps physically incapable of maturing a wave strength on the left hand side of the old trusty Wheeler D for the time being. Thankfully for the snow and cold geese, the correlation of any given MJO wave is not 1::1. The former indexes could signal a favorable result in that regard, and damp out the MJO if they happen to be in deconstructive wave interference. My own personal belief - to re-iterate - is that the MJO's influence on the pattern needs an assist. If these other middle latitude teleconnectors "support" then a given synoptic pattern/evolution will "seem" to be more highly correlated/caused by the MJO; when the middle latitude teleconnectors don't support, the MJO science seems like a big huge waste of time. I've never tried to study that assertion directly my self, so taken with the grain of salt - or is it "assautl"? ...Excluding any possibility that I just inadvertently insulted someone ... I am less nervy about a Phase 5 MJO emerging for the time being, until the result of any -AO/-NAO/+PNA tandem teleconnector spread is fully registered.

We have had 4 snow and or mixy type events regional to SNE over the last 9 days ... albeit pieces of shyt as they were. I still think, though, that much of the colder like profile overall since Jan 10 or so is likely connected to a 3 day -EPO pulse that took place near the beginning of that time span - perhaps this shows what this winter could be like if these statistical packages really do more meaningfully switch their persistent signs.