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Seeing as Jan 15 marks the official 1/2 point of Meteorological winter...

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Well, employing that logic, I'll look forward to my couple of Miller B-East oak obliterators this spring.

Saying we are due, doesn't mean saying that it will happen on a certain date or time...it just means that it will happen sooner or later. '06-'07 was bound to happen sooner rather than later.

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Posted
Posted

the problem is I think almost all correlations would be weak...for temps it be fine...but LES doesn't always play by the rules. Look at 2001-2002...132" in a really awful winter.

I could get 30" more inches, and still be on par with one of the most infamous winters in east coast lore, '01-'02. That sums up the current situation quite nicely.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

the problem is I think almost all correlations would be weak...for temps it be fine...but LES doesn't always play by the rules. Look at 2001-2002...132" in a really awful winter.

Yeah LES is fickle for sure. '01-'02 for a while had a deep trough in the GL region. I remember Pit being like 10F one day and we were 35F trying to advect cold on a wsw wind.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

That's ok...I'll settle for '78.

I'm starting to like Scooter's whole "due" logic.

Just remember...I don't like that word per se, because in weather...the word "due" sometimes does not apply...but you understand what I mean.

Just like some say we are due for another 1938. These storms may have happened twice in 20 yrs and then maybe did not come about for another 200 years. So saying we are due, is not a good argument..but we know it's coming eventually. Tell the people living near the Merrimack river about 1-100yr floods. They happened back to back in 2006 and 2007...lol.

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Posted
Posted

Just remember...I don't like that word per se, because in weather...the word "due" sometimes does not apply...but you understand what I mean.

Just like some say we are due for another 1938. These storms may have happened twice in 20 yrs and then maybe did not come about for another 200 years. So saying we are due, is not a good argument..but we know it's coming eventually. Tell the people living near the Merrimack river about 1-100yr floods. They happened back to back in 2006 and 2007...lol.

I was attending UML for both of those....that was nuts.

Portions of N campus were game over.

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OKpowdah

OKpowdah

Posted
Posted

Hey Sam (or anyone), give a quick run down in your opinion as to how increased solar can help keep the AO +. I want to see if it agrees with my thinking.

I think the connection is that increased solar activity destroys ozone....? The temperature in the stratosphere is directly related to the concentration of ozone as that reaction with UV is the only mechanism for heating that layer.

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dabize

dabize

Posted
Posted

I'd love that

You must be referring to the second storm that month

I fear that Kevin would have been too busy still digging out from Mayor Lindsay's snowstorm on Feb 11th to notice.

In Northern Westchester, we got 27" and were still showshoeing out to the nearest road, so we barely noticed that we missed out on that storm..........

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

I think the connection is that increased solar activity destroys ozone....? The temperature in the stratosphere is directly related to the concentration of ozone as that reaction with UV is the only mechanism for heating that layer.

That's the simple version that I know of as well. I've seen folks get into the deeper understanding.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

And who knows..next winter could suck..and then the next 3 may be ridiculous. Climo works in mysterious ways.

Yeah I've been afraid we are "due" for several clunkers in a row given the ridiculous snowfall in general over the past 10-12 years. I mean every station in New England is averaging a pretty significant higher amount of snow in the 2000s so far over the long term 50-100 year averages. The local spot up here BTV is averaging like 24" more since 2000-2001 to the present, than they are from 1900 to the present. I'm pretty sure Will said its similar at ORH (maybe not as high, but noticably higher than long term climo).

The problem is we all remember the fun and crazy events and think we are due for those type of storms, but we forget about all the crap-tastic patterns and seasons. I mean the 1920s, 1930s and 40s were horrible for snowfall if I remember my snowfall climo.

Look at the max snowfall seasons at BTV... 3 of the top 5 seasons occurred since 2000-2001 which is impressive for a place that has records since 1884! The law of averages says we may be due for quite a few clunkers.

SEASONAL SNOWFALL EXTREMES BY RANK
MAXIMUM / SEASON					  MINIMUM / SEASON
1)  145.4	1970-71				   1)   31.3   1912-13
2)  132.0	1886-87				   2)   32.0   1904-05
3)  129.0	2010-11				   3)   38.3   1928-29
4)  122.5	2000-01				   4)   38.7   1926-27
5)  120.2	2007-08				   5)   39.2   1990-91
6)  116.9	1992-93				   6)   39.6   1979-80
7)  113.5	1887-88				   7)   40.4   1988-89
8)  111.6	1965-66				   8)   40.7   1948-49
9)  108.9	1971-72				   9)   42.0   1902-03
10)  107.2	1993-94				10)  43.0   1903-04

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah I've been afraid we are "due" for several clunkers in a row given the ridiculous snowfall in general over the past 10-12 years. I mean every station in New England is averaging a pretty significant higher amount of snow in the 2000s so far over the long term 50-100 year averages. The local spot up here BTV is averaging like 24" more since 2000-2001 to the present, than they are from 1900 to the present. I'm pretty sure Will said its similar at ORH (maybe not as high, but noticably higher than long term climo).

The problem is we all remember the fun and crazy events and think we are due for those type of storms, but we forget about all the crap-tastic patterns and seasons. I mean the 1920s, 1930s and 40s were horrible for snowfall if I remember my snowfall climo.

Look at the max snowfall seasons at BTV... 3 of the top 5 seasons occurred since 2000-2001 which is impressive for a place that has records since 1884! The law of averages says we may be due for quite a few clunkers.

SEASONAL SNOWFALL EXTREMES BY RANK
MAXIMUM / SEASON					  MINIMUM / SEASON
1)  145.4	1970-71				   1)   31.3   1912-13
2)  132.0	1886-87				   2)   32.0   1904-05
3)  129.0	2010-11				   3)   38.3   1928-29
4)  122.5	2000-01				   4)   38.7   1926-27
5)  120.2	2007-08				   5)   39.2   1990-91
6)  116.9	1992-93				   6)   39.6   1979-80
7)  113.5	1887-88				   7)   40.4   1988-89
8)  111.6	1965-66				   8)   40.7   1948-49
9)  108.9	1971-72				   9)   42.0   1902-03
10)  107.2	1993-94				10)  43.0   1903-04

The 30s and 40s were a lousy decadal regime too.

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Posted
Posted

You must be referring to the second storm that month

I fear that Kevin would have been too busy still digging out from Mayor Lindsay's snowstorm on Feb 11th to notice.

In Northern Westchester, we got 27" and were still showshoeing out to the nearest road, so we barely noticed that we missed out on that storm..........

A true weenie would notice...sorry.

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Posted
Posted

Yeah I've been afraid we are "due" for several clunkers in a row given the ridiculous snowfall in general over the past 10-12 years. I mean every station in New England is averaging a pretty significant higher amount of snow in the 2000s so far over the long term 50-100 year averages. The local spot up here BTV is averaging like 24" more since 2000-2001 to the present, than they are from 1900 to the present. I'm pretty sure Will said its similar at ORH (maybe not as high, but noticably higher than long term climo).

The problem is we all remember the fun and crazy events and think we are due for those type of storms, but we forget about all the crap-tastic patterns and seasons. I mean the 1920s, 1930s and 40s were horrible for snowfall if I remember my snowfall climo.

Look at the max snowfall seasons at BTV... 3 of the top 5 seasons occurred since 2000-2001 which is impressive for a place that has records since 1884! The law of averages says we may be due for quite a few clunkers.

SEASONAL SNOWFALL EXTREMES BY RANK
MAXIMUM / SEASON					  MINIMUM / SEASON
1)  145.4	1970-71				   1)   31.3   1912-13
2)  132.0	1886-87				   2)   32.0   1904-05
3)  129.0	2010-11				   3)   38.3   1928-29
4)  122.5	2000-01				   4)   38.7   1926-27
5)  120.2	2007-08				   5)   39.2   1990-91
6)  116.9	1992-93				   6)   39.6   1979-80
7)  113.5	1887-88				   7)   40.4   1988-89
8)  111.6	1965-66				   8)   40.7   1948-49
9)  108.9	1971-72				   9)   42.0   1902-03
10)  107.2	1993-94				10)  43.0   1903-04

You want an area due for terrible stretch, take a look at Dendrite's 6 year run.

He avgs like 70"\season and over that 6 year span is around 100".

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Scott (Messenger), I'll dig up my local stats pertaining to that, later.

The following seasons were held to single digits in every month through January IMBY:

1958-'59- 15.5" through the end of January and ended with 52.7"

1962-'63- 21.4" through the end of January and ended with 52.9"

1968-'69 (lol)- 12.8" through the end of January and ended with 86.5"

1979-'80- 6.6" through the end of January and ended with current record for futility with 19.9"

1985-'86- 15.9" through the end of January and ended with 33.2"

1988-'89- 5.6" through the end of January and ended with the 2nd most futile total of 20.3"

1991-'92- 10.6" through the end of January and ended with 4th most futile total on record of 26.6"

1994-'95- 8.2" through the end of January and ended up with the 3rd most futile total on record of 22.5"

1996-'97- 18.4" through the end of January and ended up with 63.5" on the season. Salvaged by the best storm of my life

2006-'07- 3.5" through the end of January and ended up with 34.5"

Best season is 1968-'69 with 86.5"

Worst is 1979-'80 with 19.9"

Mean season is 41.3"

My seasonal total currently stands at 6.5" and is doubtful to change much from now until month's end; if that is indeed the case, then that would render 1979-'80, 1988-'89, 1994-'95 and 2006-'07 as the best indicators of where we may be headed with a mean snowfall of 24.3" IMBY.

Horrific.

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