Seeing as Jan 15 marks the official 1/2 point of Meteorological winter...

[CT Rain]

Yeah I think that's what he meant..or at least how I took it.

Something else I noticed...the whole atmosphere seems coupled this year. By that, I mean the atmosphere over the polar regions has been ice cold, from the surface to the Stratosphere. Last year and other previous years..it has not been coupled. It was actually cold over warm for a while last winter. But what caused this coupling? Solar? I think that is part of it. QBO downwelling? Well that was unfavorable still in the beginning of the winter which maybe combined with the increased solar, helped keep it cold. I still don't grasp the whole solar relationship..as I don't think we as a community fully understand it either.

Voodoo lol

I think using changes in the stratosphere as a lagged-forcing in the troposphere can be useful for Week 2-4 forecasts. I don't think you can add much value beyond that predicting the stratosphere using solar impacts? At least not well I guess.

[CoastalWx]

Hey Sam (or anyone), give a quick run down in your opinion as to how increased solar can help keep the AO +. I want to see if it agrees with my thinking.

[CoastalWx]

My hypthesis would be that that renders it more stable.

Definitely, as we are seeing the results of that...but I want to know how it got this way. Things changed in September.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well there's nothing else to talk about now because nothing else shows any sign of helping us out lol

The general masses just seem to associate the entire phenomenon as automatically heralding a more wintery pattern without fail, and that just isn't the case.

No one in this thread, but it does go on.

[Typhoon Tip]

John's post is good and I think spot on. I do agree with him that we're going to have to wait for the Arctic to cooperate. The gist of his post is we're not getting any help from the Pacific so we'll have to wait for something to the north to do something.

If the MJO was a bit more active maybe we'd be able to rely on some convection in the Pacific to force a pattern change - but that's not going to happen.

The atmosphere has shown a resilient vortex over Alaska and seems not ready to change.

A wholesale change in the stratosphere and flipping the AO seems like the easiest way to get a pattern change that's long lasting so in that regard I agree with his post.

Thank you - this really was all I was after, and you've paraphrased it perfectly.

I think people are just pissed off ...or have allowed them selves to become pissed off, by their sensible weather being at odds with their hopes and aspirations. And that is a run-away frustration, because there is no control there. They have to keep eating what they perceive as sh*t whether they like it or not this particular year. Unfortunately, that ire doesn't lend to objective reasoning and/or enlightened discourse.

Oh well.. In 4 months it'll all be a memory and we'll be complaining about the heat and dreaming about convection.

[CoastalWx]

Voodoo lol

I think using changes in the stratosphere as a lagged-forcing in the troposphere can be useful for Week 2-4 forecasts. I don't think you can add much value beyond that predicting the stratosphere using solar impacts? At least not well I guess.

It is voodoo. That's why..I'm skeptical of the thinking of many out there regarding the impacts of some of these features. It's not that I don't believe it...there are scientists out there doing amazing work...I just remain in the group of waiting to get a better understanding of it. I take it into consideration, but I also understand that we don't fully grasp a lot of this stuff quite yet...just theories.

[CT Rain]

The general masses just seem to associate the entire phenomenon as automatically heralding a more wintery pattern without fail, and that just isn't the case.

No one in this thread, but it does go on.

Yeah that's why I stay out of most other regions lol.

If you step back and look at the pattern/hemisphere as a whole the stratosphere interaction is pretty interesting stuff. Unfortunately it seems like everything this winter is against us... I'd rather not wait for downwelling warmth in the stratosphere to help flip the pattern for good... but I'm not sure what else does it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah that's why I stay out of most other regions lol.

If you step back and look at the pattern/hemisphere as a whole the stratosphere interaction is pretty interesting stuff. Unfortunately it seems like everything this winter is against us... I'd rather not wait for downwelling warmth in the stratosphere to help flip the pattern for good... but I'm not sure what else does it.

My guess is that it may succeed my latter Feb\ March, but that is literally just a guess.

[CT Rain]

It is voodoo. That's why..I'm skeptical of the thinking of many out there regarding the impacts of some of these features. It's not that I don't believe it...there are scientists out there doing amazing work...I just remain in the group of waiting to get a better understanding of it. I take it into consideration, but I also understand that we don't fully grasp a lot of this stuff quite yet...just theories.

Yup. I think you can use the existing stratospheric state and changes in it to predict changes in the troposphere down the road. There's a lot of research that's pretty good in that department of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling and how you see modulations in the AO.

Unfortunately using the sun to forecast those changes a month or two in advance seems dubious the way the science is more. There's a lot more to it I think.

[CT Rain]

My guess is that it may succeed my latter Feb\ March, but that is literally just a guess.

yeah you may be right. That's what I hope.

[CoastalWx]

My guess is that it may succedd my latter Feb\ March, but that is literally just a guess.

Will was saying the other day how we were due for a crappy December and got it. We are due for a good March...will we get it?

[CT Rain]

Will was saying the other day how we were due for a crappy December and got it. We are due for a good March...will we get it?

I would love a good March. We are due.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Will was saying the other day how we were due for a crappy December and got it. We are due for a good March...will we get it?

That plays into my thinking.

[CoastalWx]

Yup. I think you can use the existing stratospheric state and changes in it to predict changes in the troposphere down the road. There's a lot of research that's pretty good in that department of the stratosphere-troposphere coupling and how you see modulations in the AO.

Unfortunately using the sun to forecast those changes a month or two in advance seems dubious the way the science is more. There's a lot more to it I think.

Yeah it's the stuff about the sun that seems to be more questionable. I do buy into the thinking...there is some good research and results out there. I actually think it probably was part of this AO oscillation we've had over the last few years. But when people talk about proton flux and cloud condensation nuclei....how it helps with producing clouds-->tstms-->tropical systems....that's when I'm like "whoa..wait a minute" LOL.

[OSUmetstud]

Will was saying the other day how we were due for a crappy December and got it. We are due for a good March...will we get it?

aren't we all kinda due for a ****ty winter, though? lol

For the most part, winters have been very kind to our areas for the last 15-18 years.

[OSUmetstud]

Yeah it's the stuff about the sun that seems to be more questionable. I do buy into the thinking...there is some good research and results out there. I actually think it probably was part of this AO oscillation we've had over the last few years. But when people talk about proton flux and cloud condensation nuclei....how it helps with producing clouds-->tstms-->tropical systems....that's when I'm like "whoa..wait a minute" LOL.

some of those graphs that HM has posted show a pretty decent relationship between solar activity and tropical activity. Last summer the sun was pretty active and the instability across the Atlantic was really bad....even though shear wasn't a big problem.

[CoastalWx]

aren't we all kinda due for a ****ty winter, though? lol

For the most part, winters have been very kind to our areas for the last 15-18 years.

Yeah we were.

I sometimes hate using the word "due" because you and I both know that things in weather always sometimes come in bunches...but they average out to a number. Like a 1 in 50 yr storm, might occur twice in 10 years, but never occur for another 90 years later. It just balances out to a 1 in 50 yr storm.

Anyways, we had 3 out of 4 yrs where we were positive and one year was almost normal for me. That alone made me think the inevitable was coming.

[40/70 Benchmark]

aren't we all kinda due for a ****ty winter, though? lol

For the most part, winters have been very kind to our areas for the last 15-18 years.

I have 6.5" on the season and my seasonal futility record is 19.9".....we can have a very good period and still consider this a sh*tty winter.

[CoastalWx]

some of those graphs that HM has posted show a pretty decent relationship between solar activity and tropical activity. Last summer the sun was pretty active and the instability across the Atlantic was really bad....even though shear wasn't a big problem.

Yeah see stuff like that...the instability stuff relating to the troposphere and stratosphere..I get. Remember when the MJO went nuts in May because of a very cold troposhere and higher tropopause.

[OSUmetstud]

I have 6.5" on the season and my seasonal futility record is 19.9".....we can have a very good period and still consider this a sh*tty winter.

I agree...I have about 14" and our futility record is 22.4".

though I'm not sure using a snow total from the late 1800s that was taken in downtown BUF instead of the airport is really a representative record.

[Damage In Tolland]

Long range forecasting is impossible. This winter is a prime example of that. Everyone's forecasts were complete and total failures. Hell most couldn;t get even get the pattern change right

[40/70 Benchmark]

I have 6.5" on the season and my seasonal futility record is 19.9".....we can have a very good period and still consider this a sh*tty winter.

I could get another 40" and this would still be a lousy winter it it's entirety.

Scott,

'07- Much below

'08- Above

'09-Much above

'10- Below

'11- Much above

My 5-year mean seasonal snowfall is 67.7", or about 5" above my long term mean.

Not outrageous.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I agree...I have about 14" and our futility record is 22.4".

though I'm not sure using a snow total from the late 1800s that was taken in downtown BUF instead of the airport is really a representative record.

Yea, I was gonna say....I expected your futility number to be, well...not so futile lol.

[OSUmetstud]

I could get another 40" and this would still be a lousy winter it it's entirety.

Scott,

'07- Much below

'08- Above

'09-Much above

'10- Below

'11- Much above

My 5-year mean seasonal snowfall is 67.7", or about 5" above my long term mean.

Not outrageous.

BUF averaged between 105 and 110" in the 2000s...the normal is 95"...we haven't a real clunker in awhile.

[OSUmetstud]

Yea, I was gonna say....I expected your futility number to be, well...not so futile lol.

The more modern record is 1948-1949 of 40.1" that was taken at the airport I believe.

[CoastalWx]

I could get another 40" and this would still be a lousy winter it it's entirety.

Scott,

'07- Much below

'08- Above

'09-Much above

'10- Below

'11- Much above

My 5-year mean seasonal snowfall is 67.7", or about 5" above my long term mean.

Not outrageous.

I knew you would do this..lol.

Look at it this way. What are the patterns to cause the clunkers? I'm not going by the snow metric because that can be variable and lead to a weak argument. In the years that we had a clunker, we had either a big AK low, se ridging, +NAO..sometimes all of the above. So taking that into account...I'd say we were due. Again, maybe in your back yard you didn't have outrageous numbers...but it was snowy for a good part of the northeast. I'm looking at the big picture.

[40/70 Benchmark]

BUF averaged between 105 and 110" in the 2000s...the normal is 95"...we haven't a real clunker in awhile.

65.39" throughout the 00s ('00-'01 - '09-'10) IMBY...~3" above long term avg.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I knew you would do this..lol.

Look at it this way. What are the patterns to cause the clunkers? I'm not going by the snow metric because that can be variable and lead to a weak argument. In the years that we had a clunker, we had either a big AK low, se ridging, +NAO..sometimes all of the above. So taking that into account...I'd say we were due. Again, maybe in your back yard you didn't have outrageous numbers...but it was snowy for a good part of the northeast. I'm looking at the big picture.

Well, employing that logic, I'll look forward to my couple of Miller B-East oak obliterators this spring.

[OSUmetstud]

I knew you would do this..lol.

Look at it this way. What are the patterns to cause the clunkers? I'm not going by the snow metric because that can be variable and lead to a weak argument. In the years that we had a clunker, we had either a big AK low, se ridging, +NAO..sometimes all of the above. So taking that into account...I'd say we were due. Again, maybe in your back yard you didn't have outrageous numbers...but it was snowy for a good part of the northeast. I'm looking at the big picture.

i wonder what the worst indicies for BUF are. Strong Nino and +AO? The problem is LES is so tough to predict...we've had good winter in bad patterns because we got "lucky".

[40/70 Benchmark]

The more modern record is 1948-1949 of 40.1" that was taken at the airport I believe.

I'd run with that....about what I would have guessed.