Seeing as Jan 15 marks the official 1/2 point of Meteorological winter...

[Typhoon Tip]

Much of this is straight up just observational (linear extrapolations) off the teleconnectors, and observations et al. Granted, we really haven't had much to celebrate collectively as winter weather enthusiasts - though I'd argue that from a purely Meteorological perspective, the utter absence of meaningful weather should be a fascination in its self.

But ... obviously such philosophical high road offers no extinguisher of the fires of loss and longing. I understand that. I am not "above it all". As an educated Meteorologist and life-long obsession possessor for dramatic weather, obviously there is a sense that something here is equally dramatically out of place. From everything I can objectively observe about the circulation system as a whole spanning back along the last 45 days, ...well, 75 days is more like it, the problem has been the +AO predominating signal. It is true that the EPO and NOA have not really cooperated with winter weather fans, just the same, but I think for practical matters/consideration, we should really ball them up with the AO and call the whole damn thing as totally wrong ...opposing in every aspect.

During this period of time, we have encountered 3 nadirs in the AO that brought the index close to neutral, before it rebounded back to +3, and sometimes over +4 at CPC's monitoring division, since the mid October time:

I chose HFD and ORH hoping to avoid any marine contamination. Note the first nadir in the annotations above coincided nicely with a region negative departure interval. The other's in the annotation had them, or at least a relaxed positive departure as well, but this was more obvious (and I generating these graphics is tedious enough for me).

Granted ...and it is important to note, the AO is a unilateral domain that extends equally, radially S from the geographical NP to about 60N in all direction. Therefore, a negative AO or positive AO can have idiosyncratic results at any given location, if perhaps that "negative" or "positive" characteristic of the domain space happens to be biased on one region of the AO cap space or the other. In other words, we've seen -AOs in the past where the temperature anomalies were hard pressed to change, because the cold conveyors set up elsewhere. It is therefore interesting that when the AO did signal some relaxation of the ambient polar vortex strength, that is when our local climo sites also observed cooling trends.

From that we can tentatively conclude that cause for this season's struggling winter arrival really appears to be keyed into the AO. So, that shown... there is some hope here for winter going foward.

I realize that folks are a little at ad nauseam about the stratospheric discussion as to how it may affect/effect the PV, and eventually lead to favorable changes et al, but the fact remains, that science is clad. One thing I am noticing (as has others) there was never a U-mean wind anomaly present during the last warming event in the higher altitudes of the PV, spanning the last 3 weeks. That is a very important correlation because it demonstrates and actual mechanical present preparing the PV break-down, where as the temperature anomalies only imply one may take place. In other words, the former is more at quasi-verification -vs- a mere suggestion of the latter.

At last, although the most recent warming is modest, there is finally an emerging moderately strong negative anomaly in the U-mean wind. It is very high in altitude, but that is also consistent with studies of how propagating events take place:

If this preliminary observation holds, we would see something similar to this, which took place during the 2006 more obvious propagation event; note, this is not the temperature, but the U-Mean anomalies from that event:

Conclusion:

I still believe as I have for quite some time, for this season any meaningful change will probably come from the N this year. These equatorial-ward indices have just - via persistence - given us no indication of anything helpful to the winter fan's aspiration. The Pacific middle latitudes haven't been a nightmare, but now they are trying to come in with a -PNA interval. Meanwhile, the MJO has only been strong in the WRONG phases. That's pretty interesting in its self. Moreover, as I and others have noted, there has been just about 0 pattern correlation this year to the expectation of a La Nina. Granted, the La Nina is not of the stronger variety, seeing as we've just come through 24 or so months of La Nina in general, one would think some semblance would be afoot - NOPE. So, there is some other factors in play here, however unknown, that are really causing the anti-correlation winter to verify. As an addendum to that ending thought, the AO/NAO had entered the negative mode tendency when using the multi-decadal index (graphically), so this fantastically long +AO bias is also occurring against that indicator as well. This winter thus far is ...naughty for lack of better word

With that, just as a review, there is a 20 to 30 day lag correlation on -AOs that are clearly more correlated with propagating warm events. The first emergence of a warming event 20 days ago, failed to really propagate. It is noted that AO has relaxed some during that time span; it is not really possible for me to assume that as causal from this console - suspecting is another story. I believe that if we can just get one more indicator to prove we are finally propagating, this February may be of a different characteristic both in model usage, and sensible result.

Cold spills out...gradient forces the R-wave configuration to re-set --> winter recovers.

[OKpowdah]

For a not all that large temperature anomaly, the wind reversal has been impressive so far.

[Typhoon Tip]

For a not all that large temperature anomaly, the wind reversal has been impressive so far.

Agreed, and is critical for expectation/prognostics I believe...

But yeah, what's up with that... It's like we are mechanically altering the field and not doing it b... I dunno what that's all about.

[Typhoon Tip]

In any event... fwiw here is the GFS' 216 hour 70hPa level temperature prog - notice the annular temperature structure with warm periphery AO domain; that's quite consistent with the -AO via the research.

[40/70 Benchmark]

One reply....really does go to show you how fed up folks are with this winter and the SSW crap.

Don't see many optimistic winter threads authored by a met fall on deaf ears.

[ski MRG]

One reply....really does go to show you how fed up folks are with this winter and the SSW crap.

Don't see many optimistic winter threads authored by a met fall on deaf ears.

All ears here.

[Typhoon Tip]

One reply....really does go to show you how fed up folks are with this winter and the SSW crap.

Don't see many optimistic winter threads authored by a met fall on deaf ears.

It's not crap. You need to learn how it is important - and also read a little more objectively, I think. If you "got it", you might have understood that it discussed why the AO may not have really fallen. If you got it, you might have understood that the purpose of that was to define newer observations about the domain, suggesting it may yet do so.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It's not crap. You need to learn how it is important - and also read a little more objectively, I think. If you "got it", you might have understood that it discussed why the AO may not have really fallen. If you got it, you might have understood that the purpose of that was to define newer observations about the domain, suggesting it may yet do so.

I was being sarcastic...I "get it"....what I meant by "crap" is that the signifcance of it is overstated and it is clung to as a last vestige of hope by longing winter weather enthusiasts....it is that phenomenon that IS crap. I wasn't even implyingv that you were guilty of this, so I'm curious as to why you have taken this tone.

Stop being so condescending and vomitting out this "holier and smarter than tho" crap....it gets on folks' nerves and then you end up crying to mods when conflict ensues.

How is your warning bar, btw...

[CoastalWx]

I'm waiting for the wind reversal to make it down to about 30mb. It's progged to drop (the +U anomalies), but then rise again. Also, we keep seeing the EP flux vectors point towards the equator, so the warming may be having a tough time making it down. It's something to watch, but it's having a tough time making it down at the moment...but it is slowly on the move, so we'll see what happens.

[CT Rain]

I'm waiting for the wind reversal to make it down to about 30mb. It's progged to drop (the +U anomalies), but then rise again. Also, we keep seeing the EP flux vectors point towards the equator, so the warming may be having a tough time making it down. It's something to watch, but it's having a tough time making it down at the moment...but it is slowly on the move, so we'll see what happens.

Keep waiting according to the Euro.....

[CoastalWx]

Keep waiting according to the Euro.....

LOL, that's the graphic I referenced.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Keep waiting according to the Euro.....

You don't understand....if you understood, your posts would be longer.

[CT Rain]

LOL, that's the graphic I referenced.

Depressing to see the negative zonal winds at 1mb ready to reverse and ramp right back up lol.

[CT Rain]

You don't understand....if you understood, your posts would be longer.

lol

I can post 10 paragraphs about this pattern sucking but who would want to read them.

[OKpowdah]

The wind reversal has made it below 30mb. That's what's pretty impressive. Also the new warm node is appearing at 10mb. However, with the EP flux away from the pole, the chances of this making a significant impact is less at the moment

[40/70 Benchmark]

lol

I can post 10 paragraphs about this pattern sucking but who would want to read them.

I'm certainly no expert on that stuff, but it just seems to me that it's one piece of the puzzle and because it is still somewhat of a novelty, folks tend to whack it to that entire concept more than it warrants.

JMO.

[CT Rain]

I'm certainly no expert on that stuff, but it just seems to me that it's one piece of the puzzle and because it is still somewhat of a novelty, folks tend to whack it to that entire concept more than it warrants.

JMO.

It's on piece of the puzzle for sure. Unfortunately there have been so few good signals to grasp on to the potential of a SSW was an attractive one. Turned it out it was more grasping at straws than anything else.

[CoastalWx]

I'm certainly no expert on that stuff, but it just seems to me that it's one piece of the puzzle and because it is still somewhat of a novelty, folks tend to whack it to that entire concept more than it warrants.

JMO.

Well the science that John points out is correct.

But I agree...every year has a weenie term. Last year was solar....several years ago was the MJO...etc.

[CT Rain]

Well the science that John points out is correct.

But I agree...every year has a weenie term. Last year was solar....several years ago was the MJO...etc.

If the MJO wanted to venture outside the circle of death anytime soon I'm guessing it would come back in vogue this year lol.

[OSUmetstud]

I'm certainly no expert on that stuff, but it just seems to me that it's one piece of the puzzle and because it is still somewhat of a novelty, folks tend to whack it to that entire concept more than it warrants.

JMO.

I was posting to scott a few weeks ago...seems as though there is a weenie term every winter and SSW is it for this year. Remember we had annular in the tropical threads on eastern for awhile? It's a legitimate phernomenon but poorly understood...so it's seems to be a breading ground for weenies and less than informed mets to latch on and act like they know what they are talking about.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well the science that John points out is correct.

But I agree...every year has a weenie term. Last year was solar....several years ago was the MJO...etc.

I agree on both accounts....that was the gist of my initial post.

[CT Rain]

John's post is good and I think spot on. I do agree with him that we're going to have to wait for the Arctic to cooperate. The gist of his post is we're not getting any help from the Pacific so we'll have to wait for something to the north to do something.

If the MJO was a bit more active maybe we'd be able to rely on some convection in the Pacific to force a pattern change - but that's not going to happen.

The atmosphere has shown a resilient vortex over Alaska and seems not ready to change.

A wholesale change in the stratosphere and flipping the AO seems like the easiest way to get a pattern change that's long lasting so in that regard I agree with his post.

[CoastalWx]

I was posting to scott a few weeks ago...seems as though there is a weenie term every winter and SSW is it for this year. Remember we had annular in the tropical threads on eastern for awhile? It's a legitimate phernomenon but poorly understood...so it's seems to be a breading ground for weenies and less than informed mets to latch on and act like they know what they are talking about.

Yeah..lol, annular. I get a good kick out of how some view that as if they just saw Jesus Christ in person. Such a sacred word.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I was posting to scott a few weeks ago...seems as though there is a weenie term every winter and SSW is it for this year. Remember we had annular in the tropical threads on eastern for awhile? It's a legitimate phernomenon but poorly understood...so it's seems to be a breading ground for weenies and less than informed mets to latch on and act like they know what they are talking about.

Exactly right.

I guess John thought I was referring to his science as crap...not the case....I figured that was apparent because the tenor of my post was one of disbelief that a hopeful winter thread didn't garner more attention.

I chalked it up to an overplayed term in the midst of a lousy winter...nothing more.

[Typhoon Tip]

I was being sarcastic...I "get it"....what I meant by "crap" is that the signifcance of it is overstated and it is clung to as a last vestige of hope by longing winter weather enthusiasts....it is that phenomenon that IS crap. I wasn't even implyingv that you were guilty of this, so I'm curious as to why you have taken this tone.

Stop being so condescending and vomitting out this "holier and smarter than tho" crap....it gets on folks' nerves and then you end up crying to mods when conflict ensues.

How is your warning bar, btw...

The significance is not overstated - when it verifies, it can be monster ous.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The significance is not overstated - when it verifies, it can be monster ous.

Yes, agreed....what I mean is that the frequency of when it actually downwells and verifies IS overstated.

Folks, obviously not you, just toss the term around when they do not undersrand it.

[CT Rain]

Yes, agreed....what I mean is that the frequency of whent it actually downwells and verifies IS overstated.

Well there's nothing else to talk about now because nothing else shows any sign of helping us out lol

[CoastalWx]

John's post is good and I think spot on. I do agree with him that we're going to have to wait for the Arctic to cooperate. The gist of his post is we're not getting any help from the Pacific so we'll have to wait for something to the north to do something.

If the MJO was a bit more active maybe we'd be able to rely on some convection in the Pacific to force a pattern change - but that's not going to happen.

The atmosphere has shown a resilient vortex over Alaska and seems not ready to change.

A wholesale change in the stratosphere and flipping the AO seems like the easiest way to get a pattern change that's long lasting so in that regard I agree with his post.

Yeah I think that's what he meant..or at least how I took it.

Something else I noticed...the whole atmosphere seems coupled this year. By that, I mean the atmosphere over the polar regions has been ice cold, from the surface to the Stratosphere. Last year and other previous years..it has not been coupled. It was actually cold over warm for a while last winter. But what caused this coupling? Solar? I think that is part of it. QBO downwelling? Well that was unfavorable still in the beginning of the winter which maybe combined with the increased solar, helped keep it cold. I still don't grasp the whole solar relationship..as I don't think we as a community fully understand it either.

[Qaanaaq]

Well written- thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yeah I think that's what he meant..or at least how I took it.

Something else I noticed...the whole atmosphere seems coupled this year. By that, I mean the atmosphere over the polar regions has been ice cold, from the surface to the Stratosphere. Last year and other previous years..it has not been coupled. It was actually cold over warm for a while last winter. But what caused this coupling? Solar? I think that is part of it. QBO downwelling? Well that was unfavorable still in the beginning of the winter which maybe combined with the increased solar, helped keep it cold. I still don't grasp the whole solar relationship..as I don't think we as a community fully understand it either.

My hypthesis would be that that renders it more stable.