bluewave Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The unseasonably warm pattern that set up during November continues with the forecast showing more really mild temperatures during the second half of January. The average temperature for December in NYC was 43.3 or a +5.8 degree departure. The current average temperature in NYC so far January is 38.7 degrees or a +6.1 departure. There is the potential for the average temperature in NYC to approach 40 degrees with enough warmth to close out the month. It may be a persistence forecast at this point to just go with the warmth continuing through February like we saw during some winters like 2002, 1998, and 1990. But an interesting pattern emerges when we look at the warmest January departures during La Nina years. The February temperature departure actually drops from January. We could see the the lowest temperature departure relative to the means for NYC. I found seven analog years and included the January temperature departure and the warmest temperature of the month in NYC. I included the February temperature departure with the coldest reading of the month. While it's still too early to know how February will work out, it will be interesting to see how things go. 1950...Jan...+8.8..72...Feb...-3.7....6 1951...Jan...+3.9..64...Feb...+0.9...11 1972...Jan...+2.5...62..Feb...-3.9...9 1974...Jan...+2.7...66..Feb...-3.6..11 1975...Jan...+4.7..63..Feb....+0.5..16 1989...Jan...+4.8...61..Feb....-0.8...15 2008...Jan...+3.9...64..Feb....+0.5..10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Considering how above normal December and January are, it wouldn't be that difficult to get a lower positive departure for February. Plus averages rise in February so seeing highs in the mid to upper 40s is not a huge positive departure as it would be in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The unseasonably warm pattern that set up during November continues with the forecast showing more really mild temperatures during the second half of January. The average temperature for December in NYC was 43.3 or a +5.8 degree departure. The current average temperature in NYC so far January is 38.7 degrees or a +6.1 departure. There is the potential for the average temperature in NYC to approach 40 degrees or higher with enough warmth to close out the month. It may be a persistence forecast at this point to just go with the warmth continuing through February like we saw during some winters like 2002, 1998, and 1990. But an interesting pattern emerges when we look at the warmest January departures during La Nina years. The February temperature departure actually drops from January. With the new average February temperature of 35.3 degrees in NYC, the temperature could still run a few degrees above average and it would work out as the coldest month so far of the winter. I found seven analog years and included the January temperature departure and the warmest temperature of the month in NYC. I included the February temperature departure with the coldest reading of the month. While it's still too early to know how February will work out, it will be interesting to see how things go. 1950...Jan...+8.8..72...Feb...-3.7....6 1951...Jan...+3.9..64...Feb...+0.9...11 1972...Jan...+2.5...62..Feb...-3.9...9 1974...Jan...+2.7...66..Feb...-3.6..11 1975...Jan...+4.7..63..Feb....+0.5..16 1989...Jan...+4.8...61..Feb....-0.8...15 2008...Jan...+3.9...64..Feb....+0.5..10 1972, 1975 and 1989 are my main analogs now...1950 too but it got really cold that month...Snowfall for those months... Feb. 1950.....8.5" mostly slop storms... Feb. 1972...17.8" one major snow to rain event...Two other significant snowfalls... Feb. 1974.....9.4" one 6" storm...One near miss to the south... Feb. 1975...10.6" one good week...2.7" snowfall and a 7.9" fall... Feb. 1989.....0.3" A near miss to the south... Feb. 2008.....9.0" one 6" snow to rain event... 5 of six had normal snowfall...Only 1989 flopped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 1972, 1975 and 1989 are my main analogs now...1950 too but it got really cold that month...Snowfall for those months... Feb. 1950.....8.5" mostly slop storms... Feb. 1972...17.8" one major snow to rain event...Two other significant snowfalls... Feb. 1974.....9.4" one 6" storm...One near miss to the south... Feb. 1975...10.6" one good week...2.7" snowfall and a 7.9" fall... Feb. 1989.....0.3" A near miss to the south... Feb. 2008.....9.0" one 6" snow to rain event... 5 of six had normal snowfall...Only 1989 flopped... Thanks for adding those details. Some of those years also featured record cold during January in Alaska like we are seeing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Thanks for adding those details. Some of those years also featured record cold during January in Alaska like we are seeing now. you're welcome...We might threaten the warmest winter on record and the warmest 30 day period...the winters with the highest coldest 30 day period... season....30 day ave...winter temp 1997-98.....37.3....39.6... 1948-49.....36.3....38.5 1931-32.....35.8....40.1 2007-08.....35.7....36.4 1952-53.....35.5....38.1 2001-02.....35.4....41.5 1936-37.....34.9....37.9 1990-91.....34.5....39.2 1932-33.....33.9....37.8 1950-51.....33.0....35.9 1974-75.....33.0....37.5 1997-98's coldest 30 day period was only 37.3 degrees...2001-02 the warmest winter on record had the sixth warmest 30 day cold period on record...I don't have an average for this stat but I estimate it at 29.0...2007-08 has the fourth warmest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Good posts Chris & Unc. Given the warm period in the D7+ range looks fairly certain now, we'll pretty much seal the deal for another well above normal temp month. In my backyard, I recorded a +4.5 temp departure for Dec, and am at +5.9 for Jan thus far. That's about as bad as it can get. Over +10 so far, and we'd need like a -7 February to save this winter from being an all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 another record to watch is the least total days with a minimum 32 or lower...NYC will have 18 days 32 or lower by Monday morning...The record is 47 set in 2001-02...I can't see us breaking the futility record for the max days 32 or lower...We have one so far and the record is two set in 1952-53...We could get our second tomorrow... min days. 47 2001-02 49 1997-98 50 1998-99 53 1982-83 54 1990-91 57 1996-97 59 1952-53 59 1972-73 60 1957-58 60 1994-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frank Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 If I am not mistaken, I thought Winter of 1979 was a good analog year. November/December/January were either average or above average with little snowfall. February ended up very cold with numerous events, including President's Day Blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Based on how December and January have gone so far, its hard to imagine how February could possibly be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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