SnoJoe Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Please post all discussion and analysis here for the upcoming clipper system this weekend so I don't have to cleverly disguise my IMBY questions in the other threads.Thank You ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 No snow for you! That is all. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Hey Joe, How did you do last night? GSP seems like they are leaving the door open for a little more than what they are forecasting. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DEEPER WITH A CLIPPER LOW...AS IT DIVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MOISTURE AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER. FCST SNDGS OVER THE NRN MTNS SHOW STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH THE QG OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX...WHILE THE LLVL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. ONCE THE LOW PASSES BY 06Z SUN...THE SITUATION TURNS INTO A NW FLOW EVENT...AS 850 MB WINDS VEER AND INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. THIS TREND MAKES THE QPF/POP FCST A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING. HAVE BUMPED POP UP TO JUST UNDER LIKELY WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS QPF. DESPITE SOME BRIEF WAA AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...850 TEMPS STAY IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE. SO USED SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 12:1 TO 18:1 RANGE. STILL THINK THIS WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 2"). TO THE EAST...IF THE LLVLS ARE NOT TOO DRY...THE MID-LVL MOISTURE/LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SKIES CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE TN BORDER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoJoe Posted January 14, 2012 Author Share Posted January 14, 2012 No snow for you! That is all. T May an enormous sleet storm park itself...........wait a minute...... Hey Joe, How did you do last night? GSP seems like they are leaving the door open for a little more than what they are forecasting. .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 130 PM FRIDAY...THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DEEPER WITH A CLIPPER LOW...AS IT DIVES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE TN VALLEY BY SATURDAY EVENING. THE WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME MOISTURE AND STRONG Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN A DEEP LAYER. FCST SNDGS OVER THE NRN MTNS SHOW STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES WITH THE QG OMEGA ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG VORT MAX...WHILE THE LLVL FLOW REMAINS BACKED AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW. ONCE THE LOW PASSES BY 06Z SUN...THE SITUATION TURNS INTO A NW FLOW EVENT...AS 850 MB WINDS VEER AND INCREASE TO AROUND 30 KTS WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. THIS TREND MAKES THE QPF/POP FCST A LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING. HAVE BUMPED POP UP TO JUST UNDER LIKELY WITH A BLEND OF NAM/GFS QPF. DESPITE SOME BRIEF WAA AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER...850 TEMPS STAY IN THE -6 TO -8C RANGE. SO USED SNOW-LIQUID RATIOS IN THE 12:1 TO 18:1 RANGE. STILL THINK THIS WILL BE SUB-ADVISORY FOR THE NC MTNS (GENERALLY LESS THAN 2"). TO THE EAST...IF THE LLVLS ARE NOT TOO DRY...THE MID-LVL MOISTURE/LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ALONG THE I-40 CORRIDOR SATURDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE...TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH SKIES CLEARING BY SUNDAY MORNING...EXCEPT ALONG THE TN BORDER. I'm sure that quote is very informative to the ones that can understand it. I ended up with about 2.5 inches. It was weird, 90% of that came between 6 and 8 this morning under a very heavy shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 May an enormous sleet storm park itself...........wait a minute...... I'm sure that quote is very informative to the ones that can understand it. I ended up with about 2.5 inches. It was weird, 90% of that came between 6 and 8 this morning under a very heavy shower. I wound up with 2.3", most of which came between the hours of 1 and 6 am... I forecast that you squeeze out another inch tomorrow night, and I may see half an inch. Or more. Edit: FWIW, it's snowing at TRI at the moment. As far as snow falling, I think the Tri-Cities have seen more than the mountains. Accumulation-wise, of course, the mountains win again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Looks interesting for a light accumulation Joe. The models seem to be picking up more moisture with the system as go along so we will have to see. Hoping for 1-2 inches at the highest peaks. I only picked up a dusting last night. The band set up south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The radar/sat of the clipper looks pretty impressive atm. I sure hope it does well for you guys, espeacilly the slopes. This is their busiest weekend coming up and thankfully the weather is cooperating. I havent seen a flake/flurry in 12 long months. My fingers are crossed some rogue cloud can make it to mby w/o drying up and do me a favor. I have never had a winter where I never saw a flake or atleast dusting of snow. If the LR in model world looks like is does now by groundhogs day, then I will start getting concerned. I still feel like in my area the winter will not pass completely by w/o some sort of token winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I've got the best chance at seeing a little flake action with this clipper than I had all winter so far says RNK I have only seen about 3 flakes so far (no kiddin) lol. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH IN THE EVENING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT. .SUNDAY...SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MORNING. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF SNOW 40 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The WRF HI-RES NMM model usually handles these clippers pretty well. The simulated radar gives you a good idea of how the precip will evolve (incidently, I find that it also does quite well with summertime scattered t-storms). http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=index&model=HRW-NMM-EUS&area=EUS&areaDesc=Eastern+United+States&page=Model&prevModel=&prevArea=EUS&currKey=model&prevKey=model&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I've got the best chance at seeing a little flake action with this clipper than I had all winter so far says RNK I have only seen about 3 flakes so far (no kiddin) lol. for NC east of the mountains , if anyone gets flakes from clippers its usually the northern areas. Areas right east of the mountains can get skipped due to downslope, so virga watches may be issued lol. But some flakes could make it to the ground north of I-40. Usually partly cloudy skies and windy here with clippers. 1" to 3" along the track in Ky to northern and eastern Tn, western NC with up to 4" in upslope areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The WRF HI-RES NMM model usually handles these clippers pretty well. The simulated radar gives you a good idea of how the precip will evolve (incidently, I find that it also does quite well with summertime scattered t-storms). http://mag.ncep.noaa...=MODEL+GUIDANCE It looks too robust to me, but we'll see how the evolution goes. No other models put snow that far south in GA , but it does show skipping in the southern foothills and western piedmont, and if systems drop that far usually that's what happens. Overall looks much further south than other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 It looks too robust to me, but we'll see how the evolution goes. No other models put snow that far south in GA , but it does show skipping in the southern foothills and western piedmont, and if systems drop that far usually that's what happens. Overall looks much further south than other guidance. Yeah, It's farther north on tonight's 00z run of the NMM. The vort max with this one is not that strong and it's not strengthening as it rounds the base of the trough. 850mb temps not that cold either. Snows should be on the light side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Please post all discussion and analysis here for the upcoming clipper system this weekend so I don't have to cleverly disguise my IMBY questions in the other threads.Thank You ! Joe...I hope you get plastered tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Wow I just woke up for a little bit and looked outside to see everything in a solid coating of snow. Some big flakes are floating down but nothing heavy. This is more snow than we had last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Part of GSP short term: THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DIVE DOWN INTO THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING...AND WILL DRIVE A CLIPPER-LIKE WEAK SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE FCST AREA IN THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME. THE WAVE WILL PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF DEEPER MOISTURE...UPPER FORCING...AND COLD AIR. THE WRN SIDE OF THE MTNS WILL ALSO BENEFIT FROM A VEERING AND STRENGTHENING NW FLOW AT 850MB. SNOW LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET...SO HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE 12Z SREF AND INCREASED THE PRECIP CHANCES TO LIKELY ON THE TN BORDER...FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE EVENING AT LEAST. A BLEND OF HPC AND NAM QPF YIELDS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ACCUM OF ABOUT 2 INCHES. CONFIDENCE IS GOOD...BUT NOT QUITE GOOD ENOUGH FOR A SECOND PERIOD ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...SO WILL DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OUTSIDE THE USUAL NW FLOW SPOTS AS THE UPPER WAVE HAPPENS. ANY BREACH IN CONTAINMENT E OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL LIKELY HAPPEN TO THE N OF THE FCST AREA AND ABOUT 75-100 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE MAIN VORT CENTER. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE NC FOOTHILLS AND WRN PIEDMONT IN THE EVENING. A GUIDANCE BLEND LOOKS GOOD FOR MIN TEMPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 for NC east of the mountains , if anyone gets flakes from clippers its usually the northern areas. Areas right east of the mountains can get skipped due to downslope, so virga watches may be issued lol. But some flakes could make it to the ground north of I-40. Usually partly cloudy skies and windy here with clippers. 1" to 3" along the track in Ky to northern and eastern Tn, western NC with up to 4" in upslope areas. To my suprise my chances have been cut in half this morning! TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 To my suprise my chances have been cut in half this morning! TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH NO WAY! I can't believe that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 To my suprise my chances have been cut in half this morning! TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 20S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. .SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH Wilkes County was given a 50% chance up to 1inch so no worries...we usually get the same type of weather. NO WAY! I can't believe that Different shifts different people. I am noticing the same thing happen to Wilkes County from NWS Blacksburg. Snow chances are increased and decreased by half on just about every other shift for Surry County as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Wilkes County was given a 50% chance up to 1inch so no worries...we usually get the same type of weather. Different shifts different people. I am noticing the same thing happen to Wilkes County from NWS Blacksburg. Snow chances are increased and decreased by half on just about every other shift for Surry County as well. All hope is not lost, I got alert from TWC for 30% chance tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 All hope is not lost, I got alert from TWC for 30% chance tonight... flurries are useless to me, if it don't stick to roads or walkways and can't have a snowball fight i just rather have sunny skies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 WARNING TO THOSE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS: It is a clipper Ok carry on! Here is to hoping for a few flurries tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCBlizzard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Beautiful up here in Boone, hoping to see some snow this evening from the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 WARNING TO THOSE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS: It is a clipper Ok carry on! Here is to hoping for a few flurries tonight. That warning could go any way. I definitly do not expect much here in central NC (probably not even a flurry), but we have had surprises in the past. Matters if we can get the clipper to over-perform and if we're in the exact spot (narrow band). But that's wishful thinking.... RAH did put flurries in the forcast for central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 That warning could go any way. I definitly do not expect much here in central NC (probably not even a flurry), but we have had surprises in the past. Matters if we can get the clipper to over-perform and if we're in the exact spot (narrow band). But that's wishful thinking.... RAH did put flurries in the forcast for central NC. Yes they did on the chance we can eek out a few despite a dry sub-cloud layer. We will have to see if the forcing can overcome that aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 RUC imagery for around 930 tonight...looks pretty good for NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 and then after the midnight hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 The water vapor and RUC clearly shows this as a nice developing clipper that maxes out around east Tn/nw NC, east Ky and sw VA, where support and moisture combined are perfectly situated. A developing warm advection precip pattern is occurring in Tn and the Bootheel of Mo, so all systems go for a blossoming of snow pretty quickly that will skim across northern Tenn and reach the mtns to near Boone by 6 to 8 hours from now, then the upslope + synoptic lift goes on for 4 or 5 hours, followed by pure upslope. Here's my call. Also, flurries reaching the ground east of the mountains looks likely this time, except the southern foothills and southwest piedmont from CLT, west. I won't be surprised to see 6" total in some spots of Avery/Watauga/Mitchell by Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Thanks for the nice graphic Robert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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