whiteout Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 The 12z gfs looks good for many in pa as the 850 line hovers right around I76 for the majority of the precip. Southern counties could be in for a doozy of an ice storm if that high to the north wedges in the cold air at the surface as depicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Models continue to show a wintry mix for much of the area Saturday. Again, this setup will be sensitive to temperatures. Here is the KUNV printout from the 12z NAM. source: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=nam&site=kunv Date/hour FHr Wind SfcT Ptype SR |Snow||Sleet|| FZRA|| QPF CumSR|TotSN||TotPL||TotZR|| TQPF S%| I%| L% 120121/0900Z 69 15011KT 22.8F SNPL 8:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.008 8:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01 62| 38| 0 120121/1000Z 70 15011KT 23.2F SNPL 5:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 7:1| 0.1|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.01 50| 50| 0 120121/1100Z 71 15011KT 24.1F SNPL 1:1| 0.0|| 0.01|| 0.00|| 0.004 6:1| 0.1|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.02 20| 80| 0 120121/1200Z 72 15011KT 24.1F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.02|| 0.00|| 0.008 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.02 2| 98| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120121/1300Z 73 15011KT 24.4F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.012 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.01|| 0.04 0| 0|100 120121/1400Z 74 15011KT 25.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.02|| 0.04 0| 0|100 120121/1500Z 75 15009KT 27.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.024 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.04|| 0.06 0| 0|100 120121/1600Z 76 14008KT 28.6F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.10|| 0.098 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.14|| 0.16 0| 0|100 120121/1700Z 77 15010KT 30.7F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.07|| 0.063 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.21|| 0.22 0| 0|100 120121/1800Z 78 16010KT 31.1F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.06|| 0.059 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.27|| 0.28 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120121/1900Z 79 16008KT 31.8F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.02|| 0.024 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.30|| 0.31 0| 0|100 120121/2000Z 80 15006KT 32.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.30|| 0.33 0| 0|100 120121/2100Z 81 15003KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.30|| 0.42 0| 0|100 120121/2200Z 82 16003KT 32.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.094 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.30|| 0.51 0| 0|100 120121/2300Z 83 VRB01KT 32.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.30|| 0.52 0| 0|100 120122/0000Z 84 VRB02KT 32.5F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 6:1| 0.1|| 0.03|| 0.30|| 0.52 0| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Flurries at KMDT at the moment I've had two flizzards today.Do not want ice. No ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Low levels look to stay below freezing for many areas north of the Mason-Dixon line, although I would be more cautious and mention the Pennsylvania turnpike as a good placement for the 2m 0C line for the LSV. During ice storms, low QPF rates generally allow for more ice accretion than heavier rates/hr. I would definitely keep a close eye on the ice storm potential between I-80 and I-76. The event will be occurring diurnal hours and therefore help to prevent accretion a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Low levels look to stay below freezing for many areas north of the Mason-Dixon line, although I would be more cautious and mention the Pennsylvania turnpike as a good placement for the 2m 0C line for the LSV. During ice storms, low QPF rates generally allow for more ice accretion than heavier rates/hr. I would definitely keep a close eye on the ice storm potential between I-80 and I-76. The event will be occurring diurnal hours and therefore help to prevent accretion a tad. Mid jan at 29-30 deg idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS shows quite a bit more digging of the s/w. The downstream setup sucks but guess we'll see where it goes from here. 0z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS 50/60 next week.. noo. Snow thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS shows quite a bit more digging of the s/w. The downstream setup sucks but guess we'll see where it goes from here. GFS a heck of alot better than the 12z NAM, which might be warmer looking at the onset than this past event. NAM seemed to be rolling the wave in flatter and at a higher latitude than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not seeing a lot of discussion about possible even tomorrow night. Looks like there's a general .1-.2" QPF across C PA with more west. Definite potential for an inch or two with cold temps all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS a heck of alot better than the 12z NAM, which might be warmer looking at the onset than this past event. NAM seemed to be rolling the wave in flatter and at a higher latitude than the GFS. Yeah. Still in the NAM's LOL range so taking it with a grain of salt...though UKMET and GGEM are leaning more towards the NAM than they are the current GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 GFS a heck of alot better than the 12z NAM, which might be warmer looking at the onset than this past event. NAM seemed to be rolling the wave in flatter and at a higher latitude than the GFS. NAM at 78hrs meh.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah. Still in the NAM's LOL range so taking it with a grain of salt...though UKMET and GGEM are leaning more towards the NAM than they are the current GFS solution. It is weird cause low is much more north on them but 850s are much colder and we would get more snow from them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Not seeing a lot of discussion about possible even tomorrow night. Looks like there's a general .1-.2" QPF across C PA with more west. Definite potential for an inch or two with cold temps all around. Yeah I think JST could see 1-3" and the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor could see 0.5-2". Should have no trouble sticking. I'll be up in the State College area tomorrow afternoon and into Friday, so I'm hoping to see at least a bit of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah I think JST could see 1-3" and the AOO-UNV-IPT corridor could see 0.5-2". Should have no trouble sticking. I'll be up in the State College area tomorrow afternoon and into Friday, so I'm hoping to see at least a bit of snow. Ya I am thinking 2-4" from pitt to AOO, JST 1-3" UNV/IPT and .5-1.5" (more west) HGR to like MDT (.5?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah. Still in the NAM's LOL range so taking it with a grain of salt...though UKMET and GGEM are leaning more towards the NAM than they are the current GFS solution. This is so perfect. Love this term for that range on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro's 850's way warmer this run. Freezing point gets above I80....as the NAM gives us all the middle finger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro's 850's way warmer this run. Freezing point gets above I80....as the NAM gives us all the middle finger. 850s not the issue. Freezing line still near md line. Also 500 energy is pretty far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Euro is strange this run. lol. First storm then that other little wave produces hrs of light snow that might add up to 1" over the south on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ya I am thinking 2-4" from pitt to AOO, JST 1-3" UNV/IPT and .5-1.5" (more west) HGR to like MDT (.5?) It's always a tough call with these systems, especially SE of State College. They can under-perform or over-perform so easily. The NAM doesn't show much of any precip once SE of a Bedford-Lewistown-Lewisburg line. GFS has at least a few hundredths all the way to the Mason-Dixon line. Shippensburg-Carlisle-Harrisburg-Lebanon might manage a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 It's always a tough call with these systems, especially SE of State College. They can under-perform or over-perform so easily. The NAM doesn't show much of any precip once SE of a Bedford-Lewistown-Lewisburg line. GFS has at least a few hundredths all the way to the Mason-Dixon line. Shippensburg-Carlisle-Harrisburg-Lebanon might manage a dusting to a couple tenths of an inch. Ya. It is tough. I know one time it was expected for a clipper to dry up over the area and only 1" was expected. We got 5". So you never know. I just want some white on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 New England weenie suicide watch in effect. Euro shifts the major system that was over CC on the 0z to ONTARIO, CANADA. :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 Kinda random the shortwave is much more south like gfs this run of Euro but is it a bit warmer. Might correct tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 The models are all over the place. Who knows what is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 New England weenie suicide watch in effect. Euro shifts the major system that was over CC on the 0z to ONTARIO, CANADA. :lmao: So basically the Euro has the system doing exactly what yesterdays system just did? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah. Still in the NAM's LOL range so taking it with a grain of salt...though UKMET and GGEM are leaning more towards the NAM than they are the current GFS solution. Additionally I think we need to install a LOL range on the European given its performance this winter, perhaps outside of 84 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 So basically the Euro has the system doing exactly what yesterdays system just did? Talking about the 24/25 storm. 0z troff dumps into Northern Mid Atlantic causing a surface low track off the Delmarva tracking NNE over CC and eventually into Atlantic Canada (occludes just North of CC) 12z is a panhandle hooker. Surface low Wichita to Chicago with occlusion over Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Additionally I think we need to install a LOL range on the European given its performance this winter, perhaps outside of 84 hours. More like a troll range. Nothing it does is funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Talking about the 24/25 storm. 0z troff dumps into Northern Mid Atlantic causing a surface low track off the Delmarva tracking NNE over CC and eventually into Atlantic Canada (occludes just North of CC) 12z is a panhandle hooker. Surface low Wichita to Chicago with occlusion over Ontario. Ohhhhh, haha. I hate having to wait for the whole run to complete to see the full Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ohhhhh, haha. I hate having to wait for the whole run to complete to see the full Euro. Its already done on EWALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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