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Central PA Thread


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Apparently you missed them:

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA

727 PM EST TUE JAN 17 2012

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0620 PM TSTM WND DMG COLUMBUS 41.95N 79.58W

01/17/2012 WARREN PA 911 CALL CENTER

NUMEROUS TREES DOWN

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG NORTH WARREN 41.87N 79.15W

01/17/2012 WARREN PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN

0645 PM TSTM WND DMG CHAPMAN STATE PARK 41.77N 79.18W

01/17/2012 WARREN PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREES DOWN

0700 PM TSTM WND DMG BRADFORD 41.96N 78.64W

01/17/2012 MCKEAN PA 911 CALL CENTER

TREE DOWN ON HOUSE

Some of the velocities that were on radar earlier tonight were incredible - a few 60+ kt returns and huge areas of 50+. To me, it was worse than your average summertime squall line because of how widespread the wind was.

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Both the GFS and Euro pretty close to a major ice storm solution. Surface high isn't quite at the perfect position. Winds have been slowly inching towards a more Northerly component. Last few runs models suggested a more Southerly wind and now more of an Easterly component is depicted.

Easterly would keep us more cool. And euro and gfs aren't pretty close they are major ice storm. At least for me here in ship. Output places .5" ZR over me. Temps 30 or less.

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Easterly would keep us more cool. And euro and gfs aren't pretty close they are major ice storm. At least for me here in ship. Output places .5" ZR over me. Temps 30 or less.

Yeah. but its a bit more believable now.

I don't give a crap if the models are showing temps holding in the mid 20's with 2 feet of ice and glacier development. If the winds are coming out of South (like they were before) one of two things are gonna happen. Either the models will correct warmer or they will realize the winds have a more Northerly component and will correct the wind direction.

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Yeah. but its a bit more believable now.

I don't give a crap if the models are showing temps holding in the mid 20's with 2 feet of ice and glacier development. If the winds are coming out of South (like they were before) one of two things are gonna happen. Either the models will correct warmer or they will realize the winds have a more Northerly component and will correct the wind direction.

If this thing cools off anymore then :yikes:

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Euro is a good clip warmer this run (likely in response to the troff being more amplified) so we'll have to wait and see.

The keys, as I previously stated) will be surface high position so watch that wind direction.

By the looks of the text data UNV and IPT are probably all snow with this run. JST and AOO are more of a snow to ice type deal. Def a fine line somewhere between I-80 and I-76 where its all snow vs mess. Generally anyone at or above the turnpike stays at or below freezing at 925mb, so that could be suggestive of a lot more sleet. GFS precip types actually kept PA all snow for the most part except for the southern tier of counties. Dare I say I like our chances a lil better with this one, even without an ideal CAD. The wave is just that really.. a wave, with no closed 850/700 lows. There's not really even a reflection at the 700mb level. So the advection aloft likely wouldn't be overly strong. If we can keep this surface low south of PA I think alot of us are gonna be good to go.

The even bigger story imo, is where the heck did the heat wave go next week? The euro is still a bit warm and yanks a couple systems to our left..but the GFS only has modestly above normal or normal temps until it's in garbage time out around 300 hours. Neither model are anywhere close to the heat wave it had several days ago.

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