EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Expires:201201210945;;648020 FPUS51 KCTP 202145 ZFPCTP ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 445 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 PAZ063-210945- CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARLISLE 445 PM EST FRI JAN 20 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST SATURDAY... .TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF SNOW THIS EVENING...THEN SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 4 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 20S. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .SATURDAY...SLEET WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING. TOTAL SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ICE ACCUMULATION AROUND A TRACE. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH... BECOMING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. Wha... lol Fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS was colder at surface but warmer aloft, if I see it correctly. NAM looks to bump the 0 line a tad north. No it was colder aloft. 850's went down here 2 deg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Slant wise convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 If we only get 12 to 1, it won't make too much of a difference. 15 to 1 would help...but doubt we get it there. I assume ratios would be somewhat higher if the system goes a bit south of what they're predicting. Either way I'd be very happy with even a few inches, as we should be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Radar is starting to explode! centgrtlakes_loop.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 No changes.. Final JST 2-3" Sig IP/ZR .15-.30" ice AOO: 4-5" ZR .05-.1" UNV: 4-6" IPT: 4-6" MDT: 3-5" .05-.1" ZR HGR 2-4" .1-.2" ZR Ship: 4-5" .05-.1" ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif Vey Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif Vey Nice! 10% of 4" here? ya idts. I want to be here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Adjustments -Buffed ice amounts for Zone D a tenth of an inch -Added rain line for SW PA -Added mix line for Southern Laurel's- any IP/Zr will be in addition to the 3-5 inches of snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wunderground is saying 2-4" of snow followed by 2-4" of sleet and a trace of freezing rain on top for Lancaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here's what they have for HBG: Tonight A chance of snow this evening...then snow with possible freezing rain or sleet likely after midnight. Snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace. Near steady temperature in the mid 20s. East winds around 5 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Saturday Sleet and snow with a chance of freezing rain in the morning. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace. Highs in the lower 30s. Temperature falling into the mid 20s in the afternoon. Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph... becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Back in the sh***y valley for this storm...expecting 1 - 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Back in the sh***y valley for this storm...expecting 1 - 3". The last GFS snow depth map eastern posted about an hour and a half ago has you in the 4-5" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The last GFS snow depth map eastern posted about an hour and a half ago has you in the 4-5" range. Those POS maps? They mean nothing. I'm going with the south trend and the fact that the valley always does poorly compared to nearby locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Exactly Hazleton, trend isn't our friend. Best snows will be from JST to MDT. We'll likely be on the fringe of the accumulating snow, and ratios can only help so much. But hey, its at least going to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Exactly Hazleton, trend isn't our friend. Best snows will be from JST to MDT. We'll likely be on the fringe of the accumulating snow, and ratios can only help so much. But hey, its at least going to snow. JST is going to be ice not snow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 JST is going to be ice not snow. lol Wouldn't surprise me if that ice sets up along the pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Exactly Hazleton, trend isn't our friend. Best snows will be from JST to MDT. We'll likely be on the fringe of the accumulating snow, and ratios can only help so much. But hey, its at least going to snow. We will be ok, a solid 3-5" is practically guarenteed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Later is going to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Later is going to be Because it will snow that hard or because we are in shock its snowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Because it will snow that hard or because we are in shock its snowing? Both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Whole lot of dry air for this wave to battle. Temps in the 20's, DP's in the single digits and RH of 50% for the majority of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Whole lot of dry air for this wave to battle. Temps in the 20's, DP's in the single digits and RH of 50% for the majority of the region. That is not bad at all. 50% can be over come in a an hr or two. Under 25% is the issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I am supposed to drive towards pittsburgh tonight... seriously reconsidering since prob not getting on the road until 8... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Last time this maps goin up, no changes. I certainly like the HPC's small 10% regions of 8+ in their new maps... pretty much right where i think the areas that could see a few spikes up in the 6-8" range. I thought about installing a small 1-3" over Williamsport and Scranton W-B to make those guys happy haha, but I think they should easily see 3-5 inch type snows. Only worries is southern Laurels and southeastern fringes, played the 3 inch line starting where the Laurels start with the thought that any mixing holds off until those folks see a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 That is not bad at all. 50% can be over come in a an hr or two. Under 25% is the issues. Yep, all areas will go through the initial virga, but won't take long to saturate the air. I'm sitting at temp of 19.7°F, with a DP of 10°F ...RH of 65% . I'm starting to get excited looking at the juicy radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yep, all areas will go through the initial virga, but won't take long to saturate the air. I'm sitting at temp of 19.7°F, with a DP of 10°F ...RH of 65% . I'm starting to get excited looking at the juicy radar Yeah it shouldn't be too problematic...no 1035+mb high funneling dry air down at us either. We're at 24/8 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 21, 2012 Author Share Posted January 21, 2012 Yep, all areas will go through the initial virga, but won't take long to saturate the air. I'm sitting at temp of 19.7°F, with a DP of 10°F ...RH of 65% . I'm starting to get excited looking at the juicy radar Think things get started after 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 Mag you would have posted a 1 -3" for IPT probably you would have had a jumper off the bridge. :lmao: lol I like the predictions on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 28/9 here. Work til midnight, might be a fun drive home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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