hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Ouch! Is that about the same for York too? Yeah. York Skew T's have a very similar look to them. That's mostly FZRA, correct? Regrettably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Here's CTP's snowfall forecast. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yeah. York Skew T's have a very similar look to them. Regrettably. Mf'er..... I hate this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not too sure what has caused such a mid level warm up this run. Is it because the low is ever so slightly closer to the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 wanna of your biggest Peeves.. Ground temps can be a factor in accum, especially on roads/concrete, but some take it pretty far. I'm surprised at how cold you get. I don't think we got below 10 here in town. lol yeah it is. That pet peeve's from dealing with people over the last 10 years who take it to the point of "no accumulation it won't stick because it was 60 the last three days and the ground's warm". Then if you or others will point out "hey rates are going to be pretty significant and besides here's 1,135 examples of accumulating snows after warm weather", they will still argue it. That to me is someone telling you the sun rises in the west then you show them where the sun is rising the next morning, and they say "nope, still rises in the west". Then the thread gets mucked up with constant arguing and whining about it. But of course ground temps are a factor, just not a deal breaker. They are also a factor in how long you keep snow around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not too sure what has caused such a mid level warm up this run. Is it because the low is ever so slightly closer to the coast? Not sure where you see this warm up? Plenty cold fro me still and I am 1 hr west of Harrisburg. Maybe for SE but that is typical. RGEM still looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z 12z FFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 0z 12z FFS Actually is colder here. lol. warmer for SE though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure where you see this warm up? Plenty cold fro me still and I am 1 hr west of Harrisburg. Maybe for SE but that is typical. RGEM still looks good. See plots above. Just gotta wince when one of the colder models changes that drastically inside of 36hrs....even if it is just one run. We'll see how the ARW run goes and go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 See plots above. Just gotta wince when one of the colder models changes that drastically inside of 36hrs....even if it is just one run. We'll see how the ARW run goes and go from there. ARW.. that model stinks. Go NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 ARW.. that model stinks. Go NMM NMM sucks. Massive amounts of QPF. ITS GONNA BE A BLIZZARD!.... and it just flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hi RES models say no worries. All snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 NMM sucks. Massive amounts of QPF. ITS GONNA BE A BLIZZARD!.... and it just flurries Has just as much as any other model O.o Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Has just as much as any other model O.o Its a known bias. It's a lot better since the upgrade but still suffers from it. Consistently overdoes light returns. Look at last nights non event for those East of that horrible mountain chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Its a known bias. It's a lot better since the upgrade but still suffers from it. Consistently overdoes light returns. Look at last nights non event for those East of that horrible mountain chain. It didn't really show any qpf. It did flurry for a while NMM has .5" here NAM .6" GFS .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Its a known bias. It's a lot better since the upgrade but still suffers from it. Consistently overdoes light returns. Look at last nights non event for those East of that horrible mountain chain. It stinks. Overall, the models screwed up last night's event up here by under doing it. I think they did pretty good elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Radar looking decent BTW http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 T - 50 till Euro shows massive rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 First snow since October. Come on people get excited!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 I posted my forecast in a new blog for this event... http://www.wundergro...=217#commenttop. I would definitely keep an eye on a mid level warm layer which may reduce snow accumulations in southern Pennsylvania. Latest model runs have been increasing warmth slightly in the mid and upper layers of the column. Latest GFS even brings an extended period of freezing rain into the KMDT region. HIRE guidance tends to be too cold with thermals and therefore should primarily be used for other factors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 First snow since October. Come on people get excited!! When I see the snow falling from the sky, I will get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Trolling at it's finest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 12:30 and still 24 degrees. Mmm cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Good news is this one may put Harrisburg over the top in terms of beating the record lowest winter snowfall total (8.6" I think). Of course that's assuming one is allowed to count October as "winter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This was my call from around 4 this morning, probably going to be rolling with it. My max range is going to be 6-8 inches for whoever see a combination of the best rates and the best ratios. 09z SREFs continued to bring the higher snow axis down deeper into PA, and brought it's 4+ probs a hair south. I'm still not sold on this being a major mixed event deep into central PA. I'm not really sold on it deep in the Laurels either. I think the western third of Somerset County and southwest corner of Cambria is where the highest ZR amounts will reside with further east at and below the turnpike seeing mainly sleet as a mixed precip type. At any rate, I see the southern Laurels folks getting more than a measly half inch of snow before any changeover. Will have to keep an eye out then on SE most portions of PA for more freezing rain if we do get more WAA aloft there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Good news is this one may put Harrisburg over the top in terms of beating the record lowest winter snowfall total (8.6" I think). Of course that's assuming one is allowed to count October as "winter". We have all of February and March left. Though we may not have a banner year, we'll have more then 8.6" and that doesn't count October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 We have all of February and March left. Though we may not have a banner year, we'll have more then 8.6" and that doesn't count October. Yeah, we'll likely end around somewhat normal I'd guess. I was rooting for the least amount of snow on record, just to contrast with the wettest year on record (and by nearly 3 entire feet of extra rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 My webcam is going to be fun to look at tonight. http://greencastlewx.sixserve.net/ Click on webcam and put in user for username. Thing has night vision so you can see everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sounds like the Euro is a good run. *cross fingers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sounds like the Euro is a good run. *cross fingers about a tenth less QPF for just about everywhere compared to NAM and GFS but from text data surface and 850mb temps are the coldest of the 3 models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.