MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Sure, this storm is like the Chiefs vs the Packers. It was a great win ie sweet storm, but ultimately it means nothing if you don't make the playoffs. I'm pyched for the storm, but it is all for not with a GLC wipping it all away in a few days, Well we were looking at the prospects of starting to feel the effects of an epic torch in this timeframe about a week ago.. so this certainly beats not having anything near winter. And you'll have plenty of snow to survive this early week event and it won't really be too terribly warm for those few days before whatever happens at the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Now we are getting somewhere CTP Tonight: Snow before 1am, then snow, freezing rain, and sleet. Low around 22. Light southeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Saturday: Snow, freezing rain, and sleet, mainly before 10am. High near 34. Calm wind becoming north between 4 and 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like they're gonna be doing the areawide advisory with upgrade to warnings in the Laurels for ice. Judging by point and clicks 3-6" in the northern half form bout I-80 all the way to NY border. 2-5 in central/eastern counties with snow and some mix. Looks like the coordinated with the new HPC forecasts, which are still a bit further north with their axis. 6z NAM wasn't as impressive as it first looked but it was still pretty wet QPF wise, 3z SREFs were also wetter and they have the 4+ axis farther south than HPC. Still 8-12 hours to sort this the rest of the way out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Final Call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SOME ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE DUE TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET...AS WELL AS A TENTH OF AN INCH OR SO OF ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR FREEZING RAIN STARTING AS A WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...THE LAUREL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH- CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...MAINLY FREEZING RAIN...BUT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND SNOW ARE POSSIBLE AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION. * ACCUMULATIONS...A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATION AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND SLEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 That is pretty sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 GFS getting juicy now too. All snow basically MD line north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yes sir.. that's what it looks like right now. Potential exists for slightly higher amts, localized, and in the higher elevations. Thanks Pete. Looks like I'll miss it by a day. By Sunday I suppose most of the roads should be generally wet and not white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Yea an immediate nit pick of my map would be to connect my 3" lines nosing down out of the bottom of the map and connect them skirting them right near the mason-dixon. Ah well, theres 12z to get through. Why bother when it's all gone in a few days! I'd be a little more excited if the pattern would stay consistent. Hey speaking of nit pick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 4.8 right now with a solid 4-inch snow cover, snow on snow tonight. This winter's rockin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1 inch on the ground, hopefully we can add 2 or 3 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 1 inch on the ground, hopefully we can add 2 or 3 tonight. Think positive 5" would be better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 This winter's rockin' Oh no, you must have hit your head pretty hard last night during your accident. Go to a doctor, stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Oh no, you must have hit your head pretty hard last night during your accident. Go to a doctor, stat! lol..for him its rockin...... Sorry about your Car Jamie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 lol..for him its rockin...... Sorry about your Car Jamie! Oh no, you must have hit your head pretty hard last night during your accident. Go to a doctor, stat! lol, I was being more sarcastic than anything. No accident. We got stuck because our Mazda5 was basically a bobsled. Last year the car wasn't anything like that in snow. We got it inspected a few months ago and the tires were considered fine. We should have took the car that has snowtires, our Altima, but didn't quite expect the snow to be that intense. And man, the roads were a disaster. The tow truck driver told us that he dealt with three cars off the road and two accidents before he got to us. They were overwhelmed. It was coming down so hard and so cold that they had a hard time keeping up. The snow fell between 5 and 10 at our house, and I measure 4.5; State College had snow from about 5:30 to 10:30 and got 2-3. That's pretty good rates plus some wind. Getting back to this winter, I am starting to wonder, based on what I am reading on other forums about the signs for Feb, if we are looking at a 2006-2007 style second half comeback for winter. We got over 30 inches of snow in State College from 1/20 on that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As per 12z NAM: Mason-Dixon Line north to I-76, east of I-99 is mostly snow. 2 - 4" of snow. North of I-76, east of I-99, all snow 2" east, 5" west. I-99 west is 6". Winner this run: JamieO...~9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As per 12z NAM: Mason-Dixon Line north to I-76, east of I-99 is mostly snow. 2 - 4" of snow. North of I-76, east of I-99, all snow 2" east, 5" west. I-99 west is 6". Winner this run: JamieO...~9" Cool...I thought less due to QPF but I bet ratios are pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteout Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 As per 12z NAM: Mason-Dixon Line north to I-76, east of I-99 is mostly snow. 2 - 4" of snow. North of I-76, east of I-99, all snow 2" east, 5" west. I-99 west is 6". Winner this run: JamieO...~9" So this run wasn't as juicy? Previous nam runs had those along 76 in south central pa seeing 4-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Cool...I thought less due to QPF but I bet ratios are pretty good. I'd take 5-6" in a heartbeat. Also, I'd assume the drier runs would be somewhat colder anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So this run wasn't as juicy? Previous nam runs had those along 76 in south central pa seeing 4-6 inches The snowfall output was not completed when I made that post and I was in error. Here is a graphical output of the 12z NAM. Turnpike looks to be the dividing line between all snow and the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 So this run wasn't as juicy? Previous nam runs had those along 76 in south central pa seeing 4-6 inches 06Z for storm duration: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/nam/20120120/06/nam_namer_045_precip_p36.gif 12Z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F20%2F2012+12UTC&rname=PRECIP+PARMS&pname=precip_p36&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=036&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Not sure why the NWS has such a nasty mix for my area. Flipping through a border city's (Hanover)Skew T's, there is a pretty deep pocket of cold from the mid levels to the surface for the majority of the event. In fact, Hanover only looks like it reaches FZRA potential around hr 31 on the NAM...which is as the bulk of the precip pulls out. So if they might barely see zr, how the heck will I? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 CTP may have their reasons for saying only 2-5 but TWC says 4-7 here. Sounds much more like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 CTP may have their reasons for saying only 2-5 but TWC says 4-7 here. Sounds much more like it! TIMING IS GFS FASTER AND NAM SLOWER. WILL SIDE WITH THE GFS...WHICH BRINGS SNOW IN AROUND 00Z. CERTAINLY BY MIDNIGHT EVEN THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL HAVE LIGHT SNOW FALLING.THE FORECAST CHALLENGES TODAY WERE NOT ONLY SNOW AMOUNTS...BUT P-TYPE IN THE SOUTH. WHILE THE SFC LOW WHICH SLIDES ALONG THAT OLD BOUNDARY WILL STAY OFF TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA...A DEEP WARM NOSE MOVES UP INTO THE SRN TIER. HOWEVER...THE LOW IS FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH AND THE COLUMN COOLING IS STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST OF THE NRN 2/3RDS OF THE FCST AREA AS STRAIGHT SNOW. THE SOUNDINGS AND TIME SECTIONS FROM KJST ARE A CLASSIC FREEZING RAIN PROFILE...WITH A DEEP WARM LAYER UNDER THE BEST UPLIFT AND SHALLOW FZG LAYER AT/NEAR THE SFC. THE MIX OF PRECIP IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO START AS SNOW FOR THOSE THAT DO CHANGE...AND THIS COULD BE ENOUGH SNOW ON IT/S OWN TO WARRANT AN ADVY...BUT THE POSSIBILITY OF FZRA MAKES IT AN EASY CALL FOR A WW ADVY IN THE SRN FEW TIERS OF COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOW SHOULD BE FALLING BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM. THE SWEET SPOT IN THE SOUNDINGS IS HIGH IN THE CLOUD...WITH THE -10 TO -15C ZONE IN THE UPPER HALF TO THIRD OF THE CLOUD. PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE FLAKES TO ACCRUE MORE WATER AND GET HEAVIER AS THEY FALL... http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off That mainly deals with p-type issues for the southern tier. They must simply be siding with lower QPF amounts seeing how my area should stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 My backyard. The wind blew most of the snow off the trees, making it less pretty but creating these odd pockmarks in the snowcover, you can sort of see them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Very pretty, Jamie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Very pretty, Jamie! Thanks! Too bad the guy in your sig is going to ruin it all next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Thanks! Too bad the guy in your sig is going to ruin it all next week He should be banned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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