hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hi. Disco What will be the first significant storm since the historic Oct event, a fast tracking wave will swing along the Mason Dixon line during the first part of the weekend. Currently we have a clipper system bringing flurries/squalls across the Northern MidAtl/NE. This storm will establish the cold air source for the oncoming wave. Normally with the lack of blocking through the Davis Straits, you would see this source of cold air continue right off the Eastern Seaboard in this progressive neutral NAO regime. However, our storm will not be that strong. The flow will not turn overall meridional and the cold air source should hold for the majority North of the Mason Dixon line. Part of the reason this storm will stay weak is also thanks to the current clipper. The clipper will start to develop into the new PV off a energetic jet max pushing 150+ kts. This will cause heights to rise behind the amplifying system and provide a nice cold air feed in front of our system. So I do not believe this has a whole lot of room to work its way North. First Call I am trying out a little different format as it became painfully obvious cramming all my writing into the map margins was not working. ZONE A- This will be the jackpot zone. This area is looking at a primarily snow event. Only those bordering the Southern zones will have to worry about the occasional sleet pellet....even then I really do not see it affecting totals. We will have to look at some meso guidance closer to the time but this area in between PA I80 and PA I76 will have to be on the lookout for conditions rapidly deteriorating as moderate snow overtakes the region. ZONE B- This area will definitely be all snow. No worries about mixing as they have plenty of distance between them and the low that they do not need to worry about any warm air intrusion. However it does come at a price. As the low begins to redevelop off the coast, rates will begin to drop off as the precip shield drops to the South. Therefore this area will likely miss out on enough consistent banding to get them higher amounts of snow. ZONE C- This region will likely remain mostly snow, but being on the Southern fringe of things, you can not rule out IP mixing in as the warm front comes dangerously close. Then why the low totals? Well models have been suggesting the dreaded downslope effect. When combined with the constant feed of cold air....I think this area will have to deal with a prolong period of dry air through the lower levels. Euro models this well as a large portion of the lower SRV sees very low RH values. ZONE D- This zone will have the greatest chance of mixing....and pending a strong model consensus of a colder storm they will mix. Mid levels look fairly cold...so I believe the majority of mix will be sleet (with the exception of SW PA). Even into I95 I believe the majority of this will be sleet. As the intial overrunning precip passes through and the warm front is at its maximum latitude, then this area will have the FZRA potential, but I'm banking on the majority of precip to be gone by them, leaving a drizzle/mist behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Still at about 1.25", but the snow is picking back up as another band moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 By the way, this is my first clipper. Welcome to the area. Where are you from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hockey...not too bad actually was an interesting read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Welcome to the area. Where are you from? Portland, OR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Portland, OR Wow. Quite a haul. What brings you in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hockey...not too bad actually was an interesting read. Thanks Eskimo. Here is to our first major storm (lol) since Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Slid off road, waiting for AAA to come get us. A torch looks mighty good about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Slid off road, waiting for AAA to come get us. A torch looks mighty good about now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just a flurry in Carlisle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Slid off road, waiting for AAA to come get us. A torch looks mighty good about now. Yikes. Hope you're alright. If you need a ride or something I have my jeep. I think you have my number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Just a flurry in Carlisle Have a chance with frontal squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 NAM says um ya snow not ice..thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Up to 1.6", and the snow is coming down decently hard again. Probably nearing an inch an hour rates. We'll probably end up with over 2 inches. Nice! Slid off road, waiting for AAA to come get us. A torch looks mighty good about now. Scary! Wow. Quite a haul. What brings you in? Grad school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 OH my like 2-4" snow to extreme ice. This run just went crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 OH my like 2-4" snow to extreme ice. This run just went crazy. Looks like all snow to me, except far southern PA. 850s are well below zero for State College. You're probably right on the 850 0C line, so maybe snow to a sleet/snow mix, at face value? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Dat nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Up to 1.6", and the snow is coming down decently hard again. Probably nearing an inch an hour rates. We'll probably end up with over 2 inches. Nice! Scary! Grad school. Welcome! Always nice to see a fellow Penn stater! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Looks like all snow to me, except far southern PA. 850s are well below zero for State College. You're probably right on the 0C line, so maybe snow to a sleet/snow mix, at face value? Goes to ice far south but not before good snow. Then like .2" ZR+ south. 2M temps ummm.. CAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Slid off road, waiting for AAA to come get us. A torch looks mighty good about now. Jamie after you get pulled out, hope you get home safetly. hckyplayer8 nice write up! Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Hope the car's OK Jamie. Be careful, man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Up to 1.75" and still piling up pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Slid off road, waiting for AAA to come get us. A torch looks mighty good about now. Get a Subaru. As per the 00z NAM: Mason-Dixon north to Rt. 30 gets 3" - 4" with ~.1" of ice. 99% of the storm is AOB 32 degrees. Rt.30 north to I-80, east of I-99 is predominantly snow, around 4" - 6" with sleet mixing in after daybreak Saturday. This could be a surprise event here. North of I-80 to PA/NY border. Nearly all snow, perhaps a few pings towards the end. 3" - 5". West of I-99, essentially the western fringe of the CTP CWA. All snow, might even be a warning event. 4" - 7". Sidebar: If the remainder of the 00z & 06z suite follows this trend, I would not be surprise if CTP expands the watch further south and east. The same goes to LWX along the Mason-Dixon Line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Get a Subaru. As per the 00z NAM: Mason-Dixon north to Rt. 30 gets 3" - 4" with ~.1" of ice. 99% of the storm is AOB 32 degrees. Rt.30 north to I-80, east of I-99 is predominantly snow, around 4" - 6" with sleet mixing in after daybreak Saturday. This could be a surprise event here. North of I-80 to PA/NY border. Nearly all snow, perhaps a few pings towards the end. 3" - 5". West of I-99, essentially the western fringe of the CTP CWA. All snow, might even be a warning event. 4" - 7". Sidebar: If the remainder of the 00z & 06z suite follows this trend, I would not be surprise if CTP expands the watch further south and east. The same goes to LWX along the Mason-Dixon Line. Could sneak in a warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/NAMSFC4_0z/comploop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 i missed it....was watching tv with the wife. we have just under 2" here (1.875" to be exact-lol) SHORT TERM FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 903 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 PAZ006-011-012-017>019-025-037-041-045-046-200315- BLAIR-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-NORTHERN CLINTON- NORTHERN LYCOMING-POTTER-SOUTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CLINTON- SOUTHERN LYCOMING-TIOGA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTOONA...STATE COLLEGE...WILLIAMSPORT 903 PM EST THU JAN 19 2012 .NOW... A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL MARCH ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE BAND...WHICH EXTENDED FROM COUDERSPORT TO CLEARFIELD AT 900 PM... WILL REACH A MANSFIELD TO STATE COLLEGE TO TYRONE LINE BY 1000 PM. THIS BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WILL QUICKLY DROP VISIBILITIES TO A QUARTER MILE OR LESS...AND DEPOSIT A QUICK INCH OR SO OF SNOW. DRIVING WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS IN BRIEF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS. THE BAND OF SNOW SHOULD ONLY AFFECT AN AREA FOR ABOUT 30 MINUTES AS IT MOVES THROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow: http://www.meteo.psu...z/comploop.html Talk about CAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Wow: http://www.meteo.psu...z/comploop.html We have to have 2" here on campus north of town. Roads were nasty coming into my dorm complex-took a taxi back and it slid a few times going up a hill. Looks like we have one more good band that could drop another inch. Edit-maybe half an inch seeing as it's pretty narrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Talk about CAD Combo CAD and upslope, I think. Check out the 12z hi-res NMM-WRF at 850mb: We have to have 2" here on campus north of town. Roads were nasty coming into my dorm complex-took a taxi back and it slid a few times going up a hill. Looks like we have one more good band that could drop another inch. Ya, I think we're at about 2" here. I'm not sure that band will drop an inch (seems to be weakening), but maybe another half inch. Much better than the expected "up to 1 inch". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 20, 2012 Author Share Posted January 20, 2012 More ZR.. Man CAD holds strong for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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