Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,611
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Central PA Thread


Recommended Posts

Yea i like the simplicity of this setup. You have cold air to the north, and a wave rolling along straight across. No worries about a northern branch lakes low, coastal redevelopment, phasing/timing, etc. With that clipper going through before this wave and some fairly decent cold.. there should be enough of a press from the cold to keep alot of the area mostly snow with this weekend wave by keeping that low under PA. I'd still watch the I-76 corridor and under for mixing. Hopefully things start heading the way of this nice GFS run. There'd likely be a ribbon of higher snow ratios along or just a hair above the I-80 corridor with that GFS solution as well.

Yeah, the -3 @ 850 runs through us, and -8 along Route 6 Saturday morning. That should be good for snow in the areas you mentioned, with the higher ratios up north. I really hope it plays out this way - everybody gets at least some.

And looking ahead.... interesting to see the PNA heading positive by Feb1, along with a -NAO and -AO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Euro colder than 12z but warmer than the UKMET,GFS,GGEM combo.

850 freezing line runs just North of the turnpike.

It def seems way colder at the surface. even MDT never gets above freezing at 2m, getting to about 30ºF. AOO and UNV aren't even close (28ºF and 25ºF at their warmest) respectively at their warmest. Would imagine the 925 0ºC line is pretty low in the state, though i haven't seen it yet. But at any rate, I would say AOO and UNV would be safe bets for mostly sleet as a mixed p-type and it only gets to 0.6ºF at 850mb at UNV. CMC's 850 thermals looked like a pretty good blend of the Euro/GFS.. and that said blend would be what i would take right now. I'd say a high end advisory snow (4-6") for whoever gets all snow, 3-4 ish between I-76 and I-80 with some sleet mixture, and 1-3" with sleet and freezing rain issues under the turnpike (perhaps nosing north some in the LSV) is a pretty reasonable early stab.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM has indeed backed off on some of the warm air advection aloft... not ideal for all snow just yet but higher levels colder on this run than 0z... having temps that borderline will make forecasts very difficult as well as preparing to treat roads/etc where some places may see snow and a mile or two away ice...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z NAM has indeed backed off on some of the warm air advection aloft... not ideal for all snow just yet but higher levels colder on this run than 0z... having temps that borderline will make forecasts very difficult as well as preparing to treat roads/etc where some places may see snow and a mile or two away ice...

Looking like a 2-4, maybe 3-6 sort of deal for the central/northern mountains. Kinda tricky to estimate amounts further south since they seem to be on the edge of a decent snowfall. The trend has been our friend, especially for those in the Harrisburg/York/Lancaster area who have been somewhat on the edge.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This could be the event of the year for people living within 50 miles of the Mason-Dixon line. I am highly doubtful of this being a warning event, but advisory headlines probably coming out tomorrow morning. No way they go out today, since the event is still four periods away.

You make me smile :)

I know I am technically MD but I do live north of Baltimore, so I figure Id come in here and see what you all had to say about the event.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You make me smile :)

I know I am technically MD but I do live north of Baltimore, so I figure Id come in here and see what you all had to say about the event.

It's cool, we aren't the cut your head off if you post in a different region kind around here. :P

what Zac said...stop in any time, good group in here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...