LakeEffectKing Posted March 28, 2012 Share Posted March 28, 2012 And as I've explained to you before the columns after the first column are not regions of the globe as they are with GISS. They are error bars, which remain constant. I'd say you have a propensity for conspiracy theories, but maybe you just forgot. No, I didn't forget, I am talking about primarily the first column. You'll note several identical numbers over the last decade. If it was carried out to only the hundredths place, I could see a few repetitions spanning a hundred months or so and spanning readings that have varied (give or take) about .50 degrees. And, lol, not a conspiracy theorist, just observing the data set and noting some of what I see. I'm a stickler for significant figures and the reporting (and or eliminating them) when necessitated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 No, I didn't forget, I am talking about primarily the first column. You'll note several identical numbers over the last decade. If it was carried out to only the hundredths place, I could see a few repetitions spanning a hundred months or so and spanning readings that have varied (give or take) about .50 degrees. And, lol, not a conspiracy theorist, just observing the data set and noting some of what I see. I'm a stickler for significant figures and the reporting (and or eliminating them) when necessitated. Doesn't the inclusion of error bars negate any necessarily of worrying about significant digits, and in fact add (very slightly) to the accuracy of the statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 29, 2012 Share Posted March 29, 2012 Doesn't the inclusion of error bars negate any necessarily of worrying about significant digits, and in fact add (very slightly) to the accuracy of the statement? I suppose. It's more me just quibbling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 4, 2012 Share Posted April 4, 2012 The global average lower tropospheric temperature anomaly jumped up in March, 2012, to +0.11 deg. C. as La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean waned (click on the image for the full-size version): The 3rd order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever. Here are the monthly stats: YR MON GLOBAL NH SH TROPICS 2011 1 -0.010 -0.055 +0.036 -0.372 2011 2 -0.020 -0.042 +0.002 -0.348 2011 3 -0.101 -0.073 -0.128 -0.342 2011 4 +0.117 +0.195 +0.039 -0.229 2011 5 +0.133 +0.145 +0.121 -0.043 2011 6 +0.315 +0.379 +0.250 +0.233 2011 7 +0.374 +0.344 +0.404 +0.204 2011 8 +0.327 +0.321 +0.332 +0.155 2011 9 +0.289 +0.304 +0.274 +0.178 2011 10 +0.116 +0.169 +0.062 -0.054 2011 11 +0.123 +0.075 +0.170 +0.024 2011 12 +0.126 +0.197 +0.055 +0.041 2012 01 -0.090 -0.057 -0.123 -0.138 2012 02 -0.112 -0.013 -0.212 -0.277 2012 03 +0.108 +0.128 +0.089 -0.108 As a reminder, the most common reason for large month-to-month swings in global average temperature is small fluctuations in the rate of convective overturning of the troposphere, discussed here. ENSO's switch is already underway in the effects. Channel 5 temps are starting out April well above 2011, which spikes up about a week in, but 2012 should come in around a +0.200 or higher anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Channel 5 temps move back into 3rd place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 Channel 5 temps move back into 3rd place. Third place wrt what? Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Third place wrt what? Do you have a link? http://discover.itsc.uah.edu/amsutemps/execute.csh?amsutemps April has come in warmer than 2011 so far, but they are now right on top of each other. April 2011 was 0.11C+, so this one is shaping up to be a bit warmer in the .18 to .25C+ range, but it remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The El Nino is starting to take off a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
physicsguy21 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 MJO has been favoring El Nino for awhile now, this is going to be an interesting year for global temperatures determining exactly where we are on the trend spectrum. Many are calling for a global temperature spike given the warm La Nina years of late. We had a similar thing happen in 2001, with the neutral ENSO after a 3 year La Nina, yet it ended up bring the 2nd warmest year ever. A moderate El Nino later without a spike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 The El Nino is starting to take off a bit. Anything that results in something different then this past winter is A-OK in my book. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Coldest March in 13 years according to GISS: Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year 2000 17 52 50 52 30 37 36 39 35 19 28 24 35 36 35 44 37 27 2000 2001 37 40 54 42 52 44 52 46 49 45 65 51 48 46 34 49 47 53 2001 2002 70 69 88 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 57 63 66 49 51 2002 2003 67 50 52 48 53 41 49 63 60 67 49 68 56 53 51 51 51 59 2003 2004 53 67 59 52 35 35 20 42 48 60 66 46 49 50 63 49 32 58 2004 2005 69 55 68 62 55 57 54 57 67 72 64 63 62 61 57 62 56 68 2005 2006 48 63 58 45 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 72 55 55 58 48 53 60 2006 2007 88 63 64 67 61 53 55 55 51 54 49 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007 2008 15 25 64 43 41 34 54 35 53 56 58 48 44 43 27 50 41 55 2008 2009 54 46 47 48 55 61 65 55 64 60 68 60 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009 2010 68 74 85 76 65 56 49 53 54 63 71 42 63 64 67 75 53 62 2010 2011 44 43 56 55 42 50 65 65 50 55 47 45 51 51 43 51 60 51 2011 2012 36 40 46********************************************* ********* 40*************** 2012 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 Coldest March in 13 years according to GISS: Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year 2000 17 52 50 52 30 37 36 39 35 19 28 24 35 36 35 44 37 27 2000 2001 37 40 54 42 52 44 52 46 49 45 65 51 48 46 34 49 47 53 2001 2002 70 69 88 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 57 63 66 49 51 2002 2003 67 50 52 48 53 41 49 63 60 67 49 68 56 53 51 51 51 59 2003 2004 53 67 59 52 35 35 20 42 48 60 66 46 49 50 63 49 32 58 2004 2005 69 55 68 62 55 57 54 57 67 72 64 63 62 61 57 62 56 68 2005 2006 48 63 58 45 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 72 55 55 58 48 53 60 2006 2007 88 63 64 67 61 53 55 55 51 54 49 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007 2008 15 25 64 43 41 34 54 35 53 56 58 48 44 43 27 50 41 55 2008 2009 54 46 47 48 55 61 65 55 64 60 68 60 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009 2010 68 74 85 76 65 56 49 53 54 63 71 42 63 64 67 75 53 62 2010 2011 44 43 56 55 42 50 65 65 50 55 47 45 51 51 43 51 60 51 2011 2012 36 40 46********************************************* ********* 40*************** 2012 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year Dr. Masters won't even mention this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Coldest March in 13 years according to GISS: Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year 2000 17 52 50 52 30 37 36 39 35 19 28 24 35 36 35 44 37 27 2000 2001 37 40 54 42 52 44 52 46 49 45 65 51 48 46 34 49 47 53 2001 2002 70 69 88 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 57 63 66 49 51 2002 2003 67 50 52 48 53 41 49 63 60 67 49 68 56 53 51 51 51 59 2003 2004 53 67 59 52 35 35 20 42 48 60 66 46 49 50 63 49 32 58 2004 2005 69 55 68 62 55 57 54 57 67 72 64 63 62 61 57 62 56 68 2005 2006 48 63 58 45 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 72 55 55 58 48 53 60 2006 2007 88 63 64 67 61 53 55 55 51 54 49 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007 2008 15 25 64 43 41 34 54 35 53 56 58 48 44 43 27 50 41 55 2008 2009 54 46 47 48 55 61 65 55 64 60 68 60 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009 2010 68 74 85 76 65 56 49 53 54 63 71 42 63 64 67 75 53 62 2010 2011 44 43 56 55 42 50 65 65 50 55 47 45 51 51 43 51 60 51 2011 2012 36 40 46********************************************* ********* 40*************** 2012 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year That is a MOST peculiar dataset you have there. Are we to believe that mean temps for January ranged from 15 to 88 degrees (C? F? Reamur?). Or is this some kind of a normalized measurement? I know that these numbers must be some function of a global temperature, but are we to believe that 4 of the last 12 January measurements exceeded any July measurement AND that 2 other Januaries were colder than any July measurement? Ague in Denmark............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 That is a MOST peculiar dataset you have there. Are we to believe that mean temps for January ranged from 15 to 88 degrees (C? F? Reamur?). Those are in hundredths of degree Celsius above/below normal e.g., 55 = +0.55°C above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabize Posted April 18, 2012 Share Posted April 18, 2012 Those are in hundredths of degree Celsius above/below normal e.g., 55 = +0.55°C above normal. Ahhh. Thanks. Of course that means that the "low" reading for March 2012 is next to meaningless......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Ahhh. Thanks. Of course that means that the "low" reading for March 2012 is next to meaningless......... The numbers are anomalies, or deviation from normal baseline. Normal being a 30 year average. base period: 1951-1980 Source HERE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
physicsguy21 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I am really looking forward to seeing how things play out with this potential El Nino. I predict this should play out much like the 2001-2003 period did, it is a good analog in atmospheric angular momentum hence LOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Dr. Masters won't even mention this one. You sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 April of 2011 had a 0.12+ anomaly. 2012 is setting up to be quite a bit higher. Probably around 0.25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 April of 2011 had a 0.12+ anomaly. 2012 is setting up to be quite a bit higher. Probably around 0.25+ Wooooooot! Go global warming!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Why did Physicsguy get banned? I just looked at his last 5 posts and they looked pretty benign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillipS Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Why did Physicsguy get banned? I just looked at his last 5 posts and they looked pretty benign. Don't know - but remember the Forum rule: Do not post threads asking why another member was warned/banned The ways of the mods are mysterious and beyond the ken of us mere mortals. Even though you and I often disagree I'd still hate to see you banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Wooooooot! Go global warming!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Don't know - but remember the Forum rule: Do not post threads asking why another member was warned/banned The ways of the mods are mysterious and beyond the ken of us mere mortals. Even though you and I often disagree I'd still hate to see you banned. You can make posts within threads, just not titled subject threads asking why, at least that is how I read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 The numbers are anomalies, or deviation from normal baseline. Normal being a 30 year average. base period: 1951-1980 Source HERE That's an interesting data set - 18 years since any one month was below the 1951-1980 average. Kids will vote this year that never experienced a 'normal' global temperature. Terry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 That's an interesting data set - 18 years since any one month was below the 1951-1980 average. Kids will vote this year that never experienced a 'normal' global temperature. Terry 'Normal' being a relative term as opposed to absolute. 1951-1980 holds no special significance as to what is normal in any absolute sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vergent Posted May 1, 2012 Share Posted May 1, 2012 About the Lack of Warming http://blog.chron.co...ack-of-warming/ should be required reading in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted May 4, 2012 Share Posted May 4, 2012 Significant jump in April RSS: 2011 4 0.107 -0.157 0.368 0.129 0.563 0.087 0.131 0.209 -0.000 2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.232 0.183 0.812 -0.169 -0.465 0.173 0.074 2011 6 0.297 0.166 0.469 0.262 0.893 0.432 0.524 0.373 0.217 2011 7 0.328 0.233 0.539 0.211 0.584 0.608 1.427 0.415 0.237 2011 8 0.287 0.213 0.566 0.074 0.760 0.693 1.188 0.434 0.134 2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.523 0.190 1.002 0.927 0.259 0.383 0.190 2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.358 -0.024 0.634 0.133 -0.074 0.206 -0.032 2011 11 0.033 0.025 0.103 -0.034 0.598 -0.009 0.326 0.076 -0.013 2011 12 0.116 0.028 0.237 0.086 0.578 -0.377 0.617 0.165 0.064 2012 1 -0.058 -0.112 -0.051 -0.005 0.633 -0.550 1.595 -0.075 -0.041 2012 2 -0.120 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.208 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172 2012 3 0.074 -0.121 0.325 0.030 -0.086 0.115 3.300 0.143 0.003 2012 4 0.333 -0.119 0.918 0.224 1.424 -0.044 1.753 0.535 0.122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Significant jump in April RSS: 2011 4 0.107 -0.157 0.368 0.129 0.563 0.087 0.131 0.209 -0.000 2011 5 0.124 -0.027 0.232 0.183 0.812 -0.169 -0.465 0.173 0.074 2011 6 0.297 0.166 0.469 0.262 0.893 0.432 0.524 0.373 0.217 2011 7 0.328 0.233 0.539 0.211 0.584 0.608 1.427 0.415 0.237 2011 8 0.287 0.213 0.566 0.074 0.760 0.693 1.188 0.434 0.134 2011 9 0.288 0.155 0.523 0.190 1.002 0.927 0.259 0.383 0.190 2011 10 0.090 -0.061 0.358 -0.024 0.634 0.133 -0.074 0.206 -0.032 2011 11 0.033 0.025 0.103 -0.034 0.598 -0.009 0.326 0.076 -0.013 2011 12 0.116 0.028 0.237 0.086 0.578 -0.377 0.617 0.165 0.064 2012 1 -0.058 -0.112 -0.051 -0.005 0.633 -0.550 1.595 -0.075 -0.041 2012 2 -0.120 -0.157 -0.024 -0.182 1.208 -0.189 0.633 -0.071 -0.172 2012 3 0.074 -0.121 0.325 0.030 -0.086 0.115 3.300 0.143 0.003 2012 4 0.333 -0.119 0.918 0.224 1.424 -0.044 1.753 0.535 0.122 I have not followed the maps as much as you guys, but the forecasted GFS anomaly is pretty high? We can see that channel 5 temps have gone up faster and faster. 04/26 -999.000 253.009 252.924 253.030 252.911 252.782 252.820 252.765 253.138 252.741 252.994 04/27 -999.000 252.991 252.954 253.043 252.940 252.785 252.815 252.767 253.193 252.773 253.060 04/28 -999.000 252.969 253.014 253.058 252.942 252.805 252.805 252.833 253.242 252.825 253.061 04/29 -999.000 252.944 253.018 253.114 252.940 252.828 252.774 252.854 253.304 252.826 253.111 04/30 -999.000 252.924 253.024 253.102 252.932 252.886 252.769 252.891 253.312 252.892 253.126 05/01 -999.000 252.933 252.999 253.118 252.934 252.943 252.761 252.888 253.317 252.877 253.148 05/02 -999.000 252.963 253.010 253.082 252.937 252.984 252.812 252.899 253.313 252.931 253.197 05/03 -999.000 253.040 253.043 253.088 252.922 252.993 252.822 252.895 253.325 252.919 -999.000 05/04 -999.000 253.098 253.099 253.067 252.895 253.003 252.847 252.889 253.356 252.968 -999.000 05/05 -999.000 253.152 253.192 253.054 252.898 253.033 252.834 252.890 253.380 252.990 -999.000 05/06 -999.000 253.194 253.266 253.057 252.916 253.044 252.829 252.870 253.405 253.016 -999.000 05/07 -999.000 253.235 253.333 253.065 252.936 253.084 252.800 252.872 253.415 253.067 -999.000 05/08 -999.000 253.290 253.346 253.087 252.933 253.099 252.735 252.833 253.457 253.090 -999.000 05/09 -999.000 253.295 253.339 253.078 252.926 253.183 252.700 252.811 253.493 253.170 -999.000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 AMSU Channel 5 temps have started to decline again, and it looks as if we will quickly slip below 2003 levels. Analysis of u-wind anomalies shows another increase in the trades approaching, so this may prevent El Niño warmth from reaching the globe too quickly: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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