2012 Global Temperatures

[The_Global_Warmer]

Ya gotta tweak em... There's a certain nature trick to it.

Jon

I guess Roy & Christy will be accused of tweaking his data as well the next couple of years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

September's position to finish 2nd warmest on UAH grows stronger. October is also going to finish well above 2011.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Amsu channel 5 temps went up again today. They are now virtually tied with 2010 while all other years continue to fall.

[The_Global_Warmer]

AMSU channel 5 temps rise again.

2012 has vaulted by 2010 and is in 1st place all time on this date without a NINO. Or without coming off one, and without record global ssts.

Record Antarctica ice coverage and lower than 30 year average southern ocean temps.

Me thinks there is a very very very good chance heat from NH warm oceans is pouring into the atmosphere while solar forcing dwindles is a big player in this.

Never the less September is now likely to reach .40C+ and 2nd place all time on UAH while October will start warm.

[Jonger]

[The_Global_Warmer]

Insert splitting hairs image.

Good news my friend, AMSU Channel 5 temps dropped today.

I'm kidding another small rise. Closing out September and starting October at record warm levels.

[Entropy]

It will be interesting to see what figure Dr. Roy Spencer comes up with for this month. I wonder if he will retain the fourth-order quadratic for its entertainment value.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Another day and another rise on AMSU.

[nflwxman]

Another day and another rise on AMSU.

It looks like October could turn out to be very warm. Granted the data is only out to october 1st, but it's 0.13 degrees warmer than the 2nd warmest years (2005 and 2010). We shall see.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It looks like October could turn out to be very warm. Granted the data is only out to October 1st, but it's 0.13 degrees warmer than the 2nd warmest years (2005 and 2010). We shall see.

Yeah and 1998, 2002, and 2010 all cool in October. It's a month without any major anomaly's.

Channel 6 temps have risen even more sharply and are virtually tied with all of the other years.

It would be nice to get some more analysis from the board on this.

[The_Global_Warmer]

People don't dig deep enough.

A few tidbits:

1. The AMJ Argo OHC update showed a record for seasonal but down from winter.

But over a large area of some of the warmest water from surface to sea floor off the NE North American coast, into the Baffin Bay and other regions of the arctic are horribly sampled. I don't throw a fit or fuss about it with respect to OHC data it is what it is, but when you consider that fact.

2. North of 65-70N with respect to any OHC data or SST data is always crap. It's just a joke at this point, it's not done right.

Sat data and obs showed the Beaufort on fire all summer. A large region with 6-14C ssts, parts of the Laptev also hit 4-12C for a month or longer. The Baffin was 5-10, 11-13C near Greenland.

On Bob Tisdale's stuff which is checked well those get thrown out for being to hot. Three different sat sensors hit 20C in the Beaufort in that small region. But QC programs throw it all out and align it closer to climo and then the global SST's are underdone and do not correlate to the Satellite temps. Which is why Channel 5 temps were not totally indicative of the high UAH readings comparably so since April at times. Might only make a 0.03 or 0.05C difference but it counts.

3. GHG forcing is real and Co2 and Methane are at all time highs. There is no reason outside of GHG forcing to see the land based torches we are getting without NIno.

Snow albedo feedback is the perfect marker of this overall and bears it out.

I agree with the guy who said .4C warmer over 15 years is easily attainable, throw in a good couple NINOs a couple +PDO years and we beat 2010 and 1998 by .2C at least before 2015 if that happened.

Instead of huge peaks like 1998 it would be more like 2010 but much warmer.

The global stall couldn't last forever.

I'd love to see BethesdaBoy come back and explain how his GEOMAG pooped all over the bed.

[nzucker]

It's just a few weeks of warmth, Friv. You get on the case of those who use small drops during Ninas to justify the "global cooling agenda" and now you're trying to discredit 10-15 years of plateaued global temperatures because Channel 5 has been warm for 3-4 weeks. Unreal hypocrisy. Remember, we've been warming less than 0.05C/decade on GISS in the last 10 years when the number should be more like .2C/decade to reach the warming targets you and other alarmists believe in.

[Entropy]

It looks like October could turn out to be very warm. Granted the data is only out to october 1st, but it's 0.13 degrees warmer than the 2nd warmest years (2005 and 2010). We shall see.

September could turn out warm too. It's late on the 3rd and still no update from Dr. Spencer. If it were a cold month, it would have been updated first thing on the 1st.

[tacoman25]

September could turn out warm too. It's late on the 3rd and still no update from Dr. Spencer. If it were a cold month, it would have been updated first thing on the 1st.

Give me a break. There have been many months, warm and cold, that were not updated right away.

Why aren't you getting on RSS, since they have been running cooler than UAH in recent years?

[ORH_wxman]

Give me a break. There have been many months, warm and cold, that were not updated right away.

Why aren't you getting on RSS, since they have been running cooler than UAH in recent years?

Yeah this is getting kind of ridiculous.

The irony is that people say that anyone who would be considered a "skeptic" is into conspiracy theories....yet now because UAH wasn't updated by October 3rd that its a conspiracy that Dr. Roy Spencer is "hiding" warm temperatures?

I bet GISS is now running a conspiracy as their data has been coming out more than halfway through the month most of the time. I've seen months where UAH takes until the 6th or 7th.

[The_Global_Warmer]

It's just a few weeks of warmth, Friv. You get on the case of those who use small drops during Ninas to justify the "global cooling agenda" and now you're trying to discredit 10-15 years of plateaued global temperatures because Channel 5 has been warm for 3-4 weeks. Unreal hypocrisy. Remember, we've been warming less than 0.05C/decade on GISS in the last 10 years when the number should be more like .2C/decade to reach the warming targets you and other alarmists believe in.

For being another very smart guy how do you overlook the obvious so often, well of course that happens when what you wan to believe is happening vs what is happening do not work out, and unlike the other guy your more middle than his extreme view. Let me help a few points.

It's just a few weeks of warmth, Friv.

No, it' not. We are now 0.13 above 2010 for the records on AMSU on this date. So it's a week of warmth, a week of near record warmth, and now record warmth by a decent amount, even if it lasts a week, it's a freaking modern record in human history.

You get on the case of those who use small drops during Ninas to justify the "global cooling agenda" and now you're trying to discredit 10-15 years of plateaued global temperatures because Channel 5 has been warm for 3-4 weeks. Unreal hypocrisy.

1. Those small drops are no where near records on the UAH record at channel 5, nor are they records at any given time in the modern human temp record. It's not the same thing. Not even close.

2. Again how can you say Channel 5 has been warm for 3-4 weeks. Every month on UAH since April has been between the 3rd-6th warmest on the UAH record how can you possibly just say it's been 3-4 weeks of warm.

This would technically be considered 2 weeks of warmth now record warmth or just hot Earth.

3. How does one discredit 10-15 years of plateau temps? On the contrary I totally get them and have gone to great lengths of listening and learning this part of global warming to better my craft. Read the last 6-8 months here for me. Most of my predictions are pretty darn good and I have again taken a lead spot of predicting with decent accuracy a much harder thing in climate to predict than arctic sea ice.

FYI. I predicted a 0.23 yearly global Anomaly on UAH. Warmest on the board. If September finishes at .40C the year with three months to go will be .210C with October starting as the warmest month on AMSU. I will probably be a few degree's to cool.

UAH:

BethesdaWx: +0.17°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Frivolousz21: +0.23°C

Lake Effect King: +0.16°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.15°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

Skierinvermont: +0.20°C

Snowstorms: +0.11°C

Remember, we've been warming less than 0.05C/decade on GISS in the last 10 years when the number should be more like .2C/decade to reach the warming targets you and other alarmists believe in.

1. I do remember what we have been warming at, it help me see the obvious, -PDO, more NIna's, and a grand solar min, it has really put a dampening on GHG warming globally, but non the less temps are not cooling on UAH. And when I dropped my bias for GISS and NCDC over it about January 2012 I realized it's the best source to track GHG warming mirror to the global OHC and SSTs, both are more flawed because of sampling, UAH has great sampling.

2. Those targets predicted in 1988 or 2007 or 2003, I dunno but things change, if Natural variability was under estimated by them I certainly don't.

Conclusion: In 2010 you had a few months where you opened up to AGW alot more than before that. But then you for the most part dissapeared during a lot of 2011, then come back this summer far more extreme skeptic and now call me a huge hypocrite even when I am not wrong about certain things, I am not sure how that works. I personally think you should re-adopt a more warminista view but it's your choice.

[nflwxman]

Well, this is quite interesting (off of Dr. Spencer's website). I'm not sure what to make of this. So is he suggesting the AMSU measurements have been 0.2 degrees celcius to high last month? This is weird.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Read the blog post to find out more.

Edit: I wonder if it's time to just stick with NCDC? The revisions made the AQUA data the last couple of years have been numerous.

[skierinvermont]

Remember, we've been warming less than 0.05C/decade on GISS in the last 10 years when the number should be more like .2C/decade to reach the warming targets you and other alarmists believe in.

Which is not surprising due to the fact that the ENSO trend over 10 years is strongly negative, and the beginning period is most strongly influenced by solar max while the ending period is mostly affected by solar minimum and the beginnings of a very weak maximum.

Once the ENSO and TSI signal are removed using the very well known and strong correlations, the trend remains near .2C/decade. Of course you have often pointed out trend lines that are contaminated by ending in Ninos. But then you use trends affected by Nina and low solar activity to cast doubt on AGW.

The phrase 'unreal hypocrisy' comes to mind

I'll provide an update of the TSI and ENSO corrected trends later today.

[nflwxman]

Which is not surprising due to the fact that the ENSO trend over 10 years is strongly negative, and the beginning period is most strongly influenced by solar max while the ending period is mostly affected by solar minimum and the beginnings of a very weak maximum.

Once the ENSO and TSI signal are removed using the very well known and strong correlations, the trend remains near .2C/decade. Of course you have often pointed out trend lines that are contaminated by ending in Ninos. But then you use trends affected by Nina and low solar activity to cast doubt on AGW.

The phrase 'unreal hypocrisy' comes to mind

I'll provide an update of the TSI and ENSO corrected trends later today.

Thanks skier. I look forward to reading your analysis.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Well, this is quite interesting (off of Dr. Spencer's website). I'm not sure what to make of this. So is he suggesting the AMSU measurements have been 0.2 degrees celcius to high last month? This is weird.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Read the blog post to find out more.

Edit: I wonder if it's time to just stick with NCDC? The revisions made the AQUA data the last couple of years have been numerous.

I was totally kidding when I said they would cook the books.

At least Dr. Roy I wouldn't think would.

But John Christy has already sold his soul.

The timing is horrible. They waited to say something public when 2012 get's warmer than the rest of the years.

Oh, and check this out. Scale is .5 increments up to -7 to +7 and the red is 7c+

2010 Sept 20th-30th left and 26th-30th right. 2012 same thing but below it.

What really make me think John Christy might be cooking the books here, I guess Roy would have to be apart of it too then. Global sst anomaly's for Sept of 2010 were colder than 2012. And the last week the 23rd to 30th 2010 anomaly's plummeted while 2012 is .1C to .15C higher by Oct 1st. And these graphs below also say it all. It's not like they were not comparable if not 2012 looking warmer at the surface where the warming starts.

The timing could not be worse. Climate indices also favor 2012 to be warmer at this point. This is a mess now. That graph shows scan to scan errors of enormous height and they said 300,000 scans per month? What the hell and the errors are apparently are 4.0C but they can preliminary find 0.2C warming the last month? what about july? or February when the climate indices favored the cooler numbers?

[The_Global_Warmer]

Regardless of what your stances are on global warming, the incompetence with this is outstanding.

And remember GISS publishes articles when they change or update there data that ends in cooling or warming.

I can't find the same for UAH, if that is the case and every time Christy and Roy put their hands on this they published papers about it, someone please show me.

[nflwxman]

I was totally kidding when I said they would cook the books.

At least Dr. Roy I wouldn't think would.

But John Christy has already sold his soul.

The timing is horrible. They waited to say something public when 2012 get's warmer than the rest of the years.

Oh, and check this out. Scale is .5 increments up to -7 to +7 and the red is 7c+

2010 Sept 20th-30th left and 26th-30th right. 2012 same thing but below it.

What really make me think John Christy might be cooking the books here, I guess Roy would have to be apart of it too then. Global sst anomaly's for Sept of 2010 were colder than 2012. And the last week the 23rd to 30th 2010 anomaly's plummeted while 2012 is .1C to .15C higher by Oct 1st. And these graphs below also say it all. It's not like they were not comparable if not 2012 looking warmer at the surface where the warming starts.

The timing could not be worse. Climate indices also favor 2012 to be warmer at this point. This is a mess now. That graph shows scan to scan errors of enormous height and they said 300,000 scans per month? What the hell and the errors are apparently are 4.0C but they can preliminary find 0.2C warming the last month? what about july? or February when the climate indices favored the cooler numbers?

Friv,

I agree that the timing of this is somewhat disturbing, BUT I think all judgement should be held until the actual rev 6. of the adjustments are applied. Spencer did say on his website that there are daily warm biases up to 0.2 degrees celcius, but he also said the data is noisy, which means that it would not be applied to the entire september dataset. UAH has made adjustments before that did not seem counter intuitive? I think they would work in good faith on this adjustment as well.

[nflwxman]

For what it's worth, the AMSU channel 5 sensor recorded a large rise today. I would imagine due to climo, we will be falling off sharply. It has been clear, that we have been very warm compared to climo for the last 3 weeks or so according to all the reanalysis data sets. I wonder if this changes once north atlantic SSTs finally cool off.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Friv,

I agree that the timing of this is somewhat disturbing, BUT I think all judgement should be held until the actual rev 6. of the adjustments are applied. Spencer did say on his website that there are daily warm biases up to 0.2 degrees celcius, but he also said the data is noisy, which means that it would not be applied to the entire september dataset. UAH has made adjustments before that did not seem counter intuitive? I think they would work in good faith on this adjustment as well.

Of course we have to wait. The track record is for them to sqaush spurious warming and have to have outsiders point out cooling issues.

The UAH TLT dataset was a source of controversy in the 1990s as, at that time, it showed little increase in global mean temperature, at odds with surface measurements. Since then a number of errors in the way the atmospheric temperatures were derived from the raw radiance data have been discovered and corrections made by Christy et al. at UAH.

The largest of these errors was demonstrated in a 1998 paper by Frank Wentz and Matthias Schabel of RSS. In that paper they showed that the data needed to be corrected for orbital decay of the MSU satellites. As the satellites' orbits gradually decayed towards the earth the area from which they received radiances was reduced, introducing a false cooling trend.^[9]

Even after the correction for satellite decay UAH continued to infer lower TLT temperatures than RSS based on the same raw data. For example Mears et al. at RSS found 0.193 °C/decade for lower troposphere up to July 2005, compared to +0.123 °C/decade found by UAH for the same period.

Much of the remaining disparity was resolved by the three papers in Science, 11 August 2005, which pointed out errors in the UAH 5.1 record and the radiosonde record in the tropics.^[10]

NOAA-11 played a significant role in a 2005 study by Mears et al. identifying an error in the diurnal correction that leads to the 40% jump in Spencer and Christy's trend from version 5.1 to 5.2.^[11]

Christy et al. asserted in a 2007 paper that the tropical temperature trends from radiosondes matches more closely with their v5.2 UAH-TLT dataset than with RSS v2.1.^[12]

Much of the difference, at least in the Lower troposphere global average decadal trend between UAH and RSS, has been removed with the release of RSS version 3.3 in January 2011. RSS and UAH TLT are now within 0.003K/decade of one another. Significant differences remain, however, in the Mid Troposphere (TMT) decadal trends.

[The_Global_Warmer]

For what it's worth, the AMSU channel 5 sensor recorded a large rise today. I would imagine due to climo, we will be falling off sharply. It has been clear, that we have been very warm compared to climo for the last 3 weeks or so according to all the reanalysis data sets. I wonder if this changes once north atlantic SSTs finally cool off.

It's not uncommon for rises like this to happen between mid Sept and November.

2009 is an example of what happens in a situation where global ssts do not fall off with the switch of seasons due to any reason and ENSO was theirs.

2012 however has an even bigger issue because the warm SSts are involved with Northern Hemisphere land, which is also in this warm period saw 3-5 million square kilometers of snow cover anomaly's the last week and also polar ice coverage is so much lower than other years.

My point is and you clearly agree the data indicates this.

In addition to that the Southern Hemisphere Oceans have warmed 0.1C in September from the 3rd to 26th.

I know people will say I am just being bias to counter that I am trying to throw out any tool we have to see if it fits, Maybe there is spurious warming, but I can't find one reason 2012 shouldn't be at record warm levels at this point.

[tacoman25]

Well, this is quite interesting (off of Dr. Spencer's website). I'm not sure what to make of this. So is he suggesting the AMSU measurements have been 0.2 degrees celcius to high last month? This is weird.

http://www.drroyspencer.com/

Read the blog post to find out more.

Edit: I wonder if it's time to just stick with NCDC? The revisions made the AQUA data the last couple of years have been numerous.

I think the best approach is to use an average of all the major temp sources: GISS, NCDC, HadCRU, UAH, and RSS. As far as actual trends go, that is the most balanced approach.

[nflwxman]

I think the best approach is to use an average of all the major temp sources: GISS, NCDC, HadCRU, UAH, and RSS. As far as actual trends go, that is the most balanced approach.

I agree, but UAH and RSS are measuring different entities versus GISS, NCDC, and HadCRU.

The sad part about this is, if AMSU data is so inconsistant, then we can no longer have a grand ol' time tracking daily anomalies versus previous years with any confidence.

[skierinvermont]

Thanks skier. I look forward to reading your analysis.

I'm having some trouble updating my files and I can't figure it out. Here's the chart through 2010 that I posted a year or so ago before I remember you posting in this forum. I'll try and figure out what the problem is and add 2011 later today once I finish reading something. But in the meantime here's through 2010:

Every +/-degree C of the annual 3-month lagged ONI was worth +/-.105C to global temperature. Every W/m2 anomaly of TSI was worth .18C to global temperature. These are based on the statistical correlations. The temperature data used was a spatially weighted average of an average of HadCRUT and GISS between the latitudes of 60S and 60N, and UAH for the two poles. As you can see, when the TSI and ENSO signal on recent years is removed, the underlying trend remains the same.

[The_Global_Warmer]

And not to say I am some all seeing know it all which it may seem like I think I am, but I always back my thoughts with endless data and ideas.

But I have thought over and over to myself this would happen the last week or so if this kept going on. I told myself not to make a hoopla becuase of Faith I placed in Roy, but Christy is a joke. You know he said 5 weeks ago that 1938-1943 had summer ice mins like todays' ice min's which is such a lie it's obvious he would do anything to ruin AGW in Science.

But what is more obvious to me is that AMSU apparently has a 4.0C+ noise issue on a scan to scan basis from some baseline. this mean the error margin for extrapolating a 0.2C warming issue with be extremely hard to contest, and it will be contested by someone but there is so much to the extrap method of sat temps it will end up in argument and dropped unless it can be proved that it was cooked.

The part that realllllyyy scares me is this:

Do NOT expect the long term warming trend during 1979-2012 to decrease, though, because there are other changes to the long-term time series which cancels out the recent spurious warming.

Sounds almost like a pleas of appeasement because maintaining the continuity of the data set to appease the super super super majority of the Science community would be better than nothing if you want to shy away from multiple groups vigorously checking their data so that they can squash the record warmth now, which is more important than the entire data set showing the warming by far because it would continue the flat line creating one if there isn't even when GISS, Hadcrut, NCDC respond at the surface becuase there is always differences.

RSS doesn't cover the arctic which is where intense warming is taking place. So it would dampen the UAH rigging when comparing the two.

Also are they going to revise the data set every month or two? How can they keep using AMSU and avoid this? How can spuriously warming only at certain times. But be amplified right now?

Ironically the noise has not gone up for this period the last 30-40 days.

It sure would be easy to accept if say this didn't fit so perfectly with the global regime.

I guess co2 isn't as powerful or are-sols are taking over. I mean even so the energy budget keeps going up at record levels and is higher than ever.

[tacoman25]

I agree, but UAH and RSS are measuring different entities versus GISS, NCDC, and HadCRU.

The sad part about this is, if AMSU data is so inconsistant, then we can no longer have a grand ol' time tracking daily anomalies versus previous years with any confidence.

They are different measurements, but just another way to measure the same overall trends. AGW trends or temperature trends in general for the LT shouldn't be much different than for surface measurements.