2012 Global Temperatures

[ORH_wxman]

Yesterday channel 5 temps were 3rd warmest on AMSU behind 2011 & 2010, how is that middle of the pack?

Its been running close to middle of the pack on average if you look at the graph. Just about 10 days ago, it was the 4th lowest since '02 and lowest since '07...so the little ebbs and flows do not mean much on a day to day basis...where its averaging on a weekly or bi-weekly basis that will tell us more on how the month will go.

[LakeEffectKing]

GISS agrees with Sat's this month with a slight downtick:

2002 70 69 87 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 57 63 66 49 51 2002

2003 67 50 52 48 52 41 48 63 60 67 49 68 55 53 51 51 51 59 2003

2004 53 66 58 52 35 34 19 42 47 60 66 46 48 50 63 48 32 58 2004

2005 69 55 67 62 55 57 54 57 66 72 64 63 62 60 57 61 56 67 2005

2006 47 62 58 44 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 71 55 54 58 48 53 59 2006

2007 88 63 64 67 61 52 55 55 51 54 48 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007

2008 15 25 64 43 40 34 53 35 52 55 57 48 43 43 26 49 41 55 2008

2009 54 46 46 48 54 60 65 55 64 60 67 59 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009

2010 68 73 84 76 64 55 49 53 53 62 70 42 62 64 67 75 52 62 2010

2011 43 42 56 54 41 49 65 64 50 54 46 43 51 51 43 50 59 50 2011

2012 34 40 47 55 66 56 47************************* ********* 39 56********** 2012

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year

[nzucker]

Looks as if it's the coldest July on GISS since 2006, 3rd coldest in the last decade for this source. Global temperatures actually haven't been running that warm this year, continuing the plateau we've seen in the last decade or so. January and February were the coldest on GISS since 2008, and both months were the second coldest in the last decade, warmer than only the potent Niña back in '08. Guess Hansen isn't cooking the books so much anymore, perhaps the books are cooking him in a sense

[Isotherm]

Looks as if it's the coldest July on GISS since 2006, 3rd coldest in the last decade for this source. Global temperatures actually haven't been running that warm this year, continuing the plateau we've seen in the last decade or so. January and February were the coldest on GISS since 2008, and both months were the second coldest in the last decade, warmer than only the potent Niña back in '08. Guess Hansen isn't cooking the books so much anymore, perhaps the books are cooking him in a sense

I suspect we'll see another fairly significant global temp drop after this winter's nino ends. The next decade should be very interesting with the cooling Pacific, continued weak Sun, and eventual cooling of the Atlantic by 2020-25 or so.

[ORH_wxman]

I suspect we'll see another fairly significant global temp drop after this winter's nino ends. The next decade should be very interesting with the cooling Pacific, continued weak Sun, and eventual cooling of the Atlantic by 2020-25 or so.

We'll have to wait and see how strong the El Nino gets. If it stays weak and we immediately go into another La Nina, then we could end up seeing some pretty low readings 12-24 months from now.

The Atlantic could flip anywhere between 2015 and 2030...we really do not know when. It doesn't not have as a predictable period as the Pacific does.

[Jonger]

Looks as if it's the coldest July on GISS since 2006, 3rd coldest in the last decade for this source. Global temperatures actually haven't been running that warm this year, continuing the plateau we've seen in the last decade or so. January and February were the coldest on GISS since 2008, and both months were the second coldest in the last decade, warmer than only the potent Niña back in '08. Guess Hansen isn't cooking the books so much anymore, perhaps the books are cooking him in a sense

Because global temps aren't matching the acceleration of the melt in the arctic, it only further illustrates that ocean currents are partly, if not wholly responsible.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Because global temps aren't matching the acceleration of the melt in the arctic, it only further illustrates that ocean currents are partly, if not wholly responsible.

No it does not.

Arctic melt has accelerated because of a plethora of factors that ultimately has forced a tremendous albedo change that has perpetuated a warmer arctic that is apparently more prone to Higher Pressures changing wind patterns and so on.

The AMO flipped sometime between 1987-1995 the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo might have interfered with that from 1991-1995. The AMO went up big time in the late 80s but dropped big time after the eruption. Regardless of what drivers were at play the Atlantic region from 60-70N became warmer, subsequently adding to the retreat of ice and and helping processes like the snow and ice albedo effect.

changes in the AO also helped flush out older thicker ice aiding in volume loss helping ice albedo feedback start to warm up the upper most salinity filled layer helping usher in a new era of bottom ice melt another big driver in this.

Then pre 2007 there was still hope for a rebound, we could have rebounded easy to 6-7 mil km2 extents in September for a while, maybe through 2010 before it got to warm.

But the extreme pattern + the winter AO regime crushed out the MYI, and depositing a lot of heat into the arctic, but the larger implications was albedo was forever altered as long as outside forcing do not change enough to allow the arctic ice to rebuild that much.

the solar min had little to no effect because it's not a big forcing change compared to an albedo change of the magnitude we saw when we lost millions of thick MYI with albedo of .7 to .8 all summer now it's FYI that is thinner and goes from .5 to .1 when its nearly gone.

The solar min of the magnitude we have seen would have a .2C likely effect on the Earth. A pretty large change, it has effected the earth's temps The immediate slow down took place in very good timing of this and the -PDO. This would cause the Earth to cool big time like .3C to .4C over a few decades, but the positive AMO cycle would off set .1 to .2C of that over those decades maybe more, but then we had increased GHG warming and here we are.

If we start to actually cool I mean have GISS temp years like .3 to .4C anomaly's for many years then we may need to re-think this.

[ben4vols]

We'll have to wait and see how strong the El Nino gets. If it stays weak and we immediately go into another La Nina, then we could end up seeing some pretty low readings 12-24 months from now.

The Atlantic could flip anywhere between 2015 and 2030...we really do not know when. It doesn't not have as a predictable period as the Pacific does.

I see no reason right now that would suggest this might be a strong Nino.

[ben4vols]

No it does not.

Arctic melt has accelerated because of a plethora of factors that ultimately has forced a tremendous albedo change that has perpetuated a warmer arctic that is apparently more prone to Higher Pressures changing wind patterns and so on.

What initiated the melt?

[Entropy]

Because global temps aren't matching the acceleration of the melt in the arctic, it only further illustrates that ocean currents are partly, if not wholly responsible.

Or perhaps it might mean that the arctic sea ice is more sensitive to small global temperature increases than previously thought.

[bluewave]

I guess the big story this year is how warm we continue to run for a second year Nina in the Northern Hemisphere.

It looks like the NASA NH Jan-Jul temps were able to pull ahead of 2009 for warmth. This is following the pattern

that we have been seeing as discussed in this post:

http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2012/04/about-the-lack-of-warming/

http://data.giss.nas.../NH.Ts dSST.txt

2009....+.60

2012....+.70

[nflwxman]

I guess the big story this year is how warm we continue to run for a second year Nina in the Northern Hemisphere.

It looks like the NASA NH Jan-Jul temps were able to pull ahead of 2009 for warmth. This is following the pattern

that we have been seeing as discussed in this post:

http://blog.chron.co...ack-of-warming/

http://data.giss.nas.../NH.Ts dSST.txt

2009....+.60

2012....+.70

I'm not sure where the future cooling idea is coming from. The ENSO the last decade has been decidedly more negative than the average of the last 20 years. Just because we have seen a mix of La Nina cooling and a solar minimum (which has since ended) does not mean the warming signal has been lost. In fact, it's fully accounted for if you parse out the variables in the data.

[ORH_wxman]

The northern hemisphere warmth has been impressive. Though the southern hemisphere has more than made up for it to make 2011 colder than 2009 on a global scale through July. SH is running like 0.17-0.18C colder than 2009.

[ORH_wxman]

I'm not sure where the future cooling idea is coming from. The ENSO the last decade has been decidedly more negative than the average of the last 20 years. Just because we have seen a mix of La Nina cooling and a solar minimum (which has since ended) does not mean the warming signal has been lost. In fact, it's fully accounted for if you parse out the variables in the data.

That's correct. If you eliminate all natural variaibility, then you are left with just the external forcing trend.

[bluewave]

I'm not sure where the future cooling idea is coming from. The ENSO the last decade has been decidedly more negative than the average of the last 20 years. Just because we have seen a mix of La Nina cooling and a solar minimum (which has since ended) does not mean the warming signal has been lost. In fact, it's fully accounted for if you parse out the variables in the data.

What jumps out of the data is how this spring was almost as warm as 2005 which was a Nino year.

[nflwxman]

That's correct. If you eliminate all natural variaibility, then you are left with just the external forcing trend.

That being said, why the projections of 2014-2015 being very cool? Assuming it's a neutral ENSO/mild Nina year and the solar min is long gone, it should exceed the warmth of 2000-2009, 2011, and 2012, no?

[WeatherRusty]

I suspect we'll see another fairly significant global temp drop after this winter's nino ends. The next decade should be very interesting with the cooling Pacific, continued weak Sun, and eventual cooling of the Atlantic by 2020-25 or so.

The decade of the 70s was warmer than the 60s, the 80s warmer than the 70s, the 90s warmer than the 80s, the 00s warmer than the 90s.

Do you expect that trend to not continue because of the factors you mention?

[GaWx]

I'm not sure where the future cooling idea is coming from. The ENSO the last decade has been decidedly more negative than the average of the last 20 years. Just because we have seen a mix of La Nina cooling and a solar minimum (which has since ended) does not mean the warming signal has been lost. In fact, it's fully accounted for if you parse out the variables in the data.

Whereas the prior cycle min. was in 2008-9, the longterm/grand min. is still in its early stages most likely. After the current (24) cycle huts its max around 2013 to possibly 2014, look out below. It may very well get even quieter by the late 2010's to early 2020's if history (Dalton min., etc.) has anything to say about it. The complete influence of a several decade long grand solar min. on global temp.'s is still way up in the air as far as I'm concerned at this point based on looking back at history, especially the period 1880-1910, which lagged that period's min. by at least five years or so. I'm giving this grand min. til ~2017-8 to see what global temp.'s finally do in response before giving up on the idea that the solar influence is bigger than many think.

[ORH_wxman]

That being said, why the projections of 2014-2015 being very cool? Assuming it's a neutral ENSO/mild Nina year and the solar min is long gone, it should exceed the warmth of 2000-2009, 2011, and 2012, no?

I'm not familar with such predictions of an exceptionally cool 2014-2015. There is no particular reason to predict that unless a potent La Nina is forecasted for that time frame.

If its a neutral or Nina year, it likely wont be warmer than our El Nino years of this past decade. The Pacific SSTs have been cooling from its peak around 2002 or 2003 which will make it difficult to achieve temperatures well above the 2000-2009 mean IMHO...but a potent El Nino could definitely do it.

[WeatherRusty]

Whereas the prior cycle min. was in 2008-9, the longterm/grand min. is still in its early stages most likely. After the current (24) cycle huts its max around 2013 to possibly 2014, look out below. It may very well get even quieter by the late 2010's to early 2020's if history (Dalton min., etc.) has anything to say about it. The complete influence of a several decade long grand solar min. on global temp.'s is still way up in the air as far as I'm concerned at this point based on looking back at history, especially the period 1880-1910, which lagged that period's min. by at least five years or so. I'm giving this grand min. til ~2017-8 to see what global temp.'s finally do in response before giving up on the idea that the solar influence is bigger than many think.

You are asking an awful lot from a radiative forcing only on the order of 0.06W-0.30W/m^2.

[nflwxman]

Whereas the prior cycle min. was in 2008-9, the longterm/grand min. is still in its early stages most likely. After the current (24) cycle huts its max around 2013 to possibly 2014, look out below. It may very well get even quieter by the late 2010's to early 2020's if history (Dalton min., etc.) has anything to say about it. The complete influence of a several decade long grand solar min. on global temp.'s is still way up in the air as far as I'm concerned at this point based on looking back at history, especially the period 1880-1910, which lagged that period's min. by at least five years or so. I'm giving this grand min. til ~2017-8 to see what global temp.'s finally do in response before giving up on the idea that the solar influence is bigger than many think.

Fair enough. As we did hit a low in solar activity in 2008-2009, if the effect of Solar variability on the natural trend is higher than many believe, then the anthropogenic component may also be higher as well. 2009, as a recovering nina year was relatively warm given the natural influences. If solar is a larger component to global temperatures than climate models suggest, then it's surprising we didn't see a bigger temperature dip all things considered? I'm not taking sides on the solar issue, i'm just trying to balance the natural and external influences on global temperature.

[LakeEffectKing]

Or perhaps it might mean that the arctic sea ice is more sensitive to small global temperature increases than previously thought.

If that were the case then we would have seen the Arctic Ice responed in similar fashion back in the 1930's...

[GaWx]

You are asking an awful lot from a radiative forcing only on the order of 0.06W-0.30W/m^2.

All I'm saying is that I want to see what actually transpires over the next 5-6 years or so before giving up on solar being a bigger influence (via BOTH direct and indirect influences). Admittedly, I would have liked to have seen 2012 not be as warm globally as has been the case to assume a larger solar influence. So, I do think that the odds of a larger solar influence than many assume have fallen from what I thought around 2010 or so. However, I still think it is too early to eliminate that possibilty and I want to see what happens to global temp.'s, say, through 2017-8. One thing that is puzzling me about the current warming is how it is northern hem. centered and how much cooler the southern hem. has been relative to the northern in recent years. It has been more like hemispheric warming than global warming recently. Why is that? Do we know the answer? Could the behavior of the southern hem. be a harbinger of things to come in the northern hem. with regard to the current grand solar min.?

[LakeEffectKing]

You are asking an awful lot from a radiative forcing only on the order of 0.06W-0.30W/m^2.

Then where does Friv come up with this???:

"The solar min of the magnitude we have seen would have a .2C likely effect on the Earth."

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/31853-2012-global-temperatures/page__st__735#entry1696796

[WeatherRusty]

Then where does Friv come up with this???:

"The solar min of the magnitude we have seen would have a .2C likely effect on the Earth."

http://www.americanw...35#entry1696796

I can't speak for Friv, but the solar forcing given over the 11 year cycle produces a detected ~0.1C variance in global temperature. We have spoken of that in the past.

If I compute the Planck temperature response (black body), I get 0.08K for the degree of forcing we are talking about. Pretty close to what the empirical data shows. Allowing for feedback over a longer term than 11 years, say a century or two, and allowing for a radiative forcing at near 0.24W/m^2 since the Maunder Minimum we can easily account for 0.2C of change. Add in a few major volcanic eruptions and you can see how realistically the 0.5C global temp depression of the LIA is accounted for by solar variability plus volcanism.

The bottom line is known solar variability requires some help to achieve a full 0.2C equilibrium response.

[donsutherland1]

One thing that is puzzling me about the current warming is how it is northern hem. centered and how much cooler the southern hem. has been relative to the northern in recent years. It has been more like hemispheric warming than global warming recently. Why is that? Do we know the answer? Could the behavior of the southern hem. be a harbinger of things to come in the northern hem. with regard to the current grand solar min.?

A lot of what's happening in the Southern Hemisphere may actually have to do with very little warming of the ocean temperatures between 64°S-44°S in recent years. The rest of the Southern Hemisphere has seen much more warming.

Change in the 10-Year Moving Average of the Temperature Anomalies (2000-2010):

90S-64S (Mainly Antarctica):

Land: +197.2%

Land & Sea: +195.6%

64S-44S:

Land: +42.0%

Land & Sea: +9.1% (Implies little warming of the water)

44S-24S:

Land: +55.0%

Land & Sea: +84.6%

24S-Equator:

Land: +29.3%

Land & Sea: +34.4%

Southern Hemisphere:

Land: +50.1%

Land & Sea: +56.6%

Why might this be the case? Perhaps expanding Southern Hemisphere sea ice extent around Antarctica has produced this outcome, even as the ice sheet (particularly in western Antarctica has experienced significant melting)?

[ben4vols]

If that were the case then we would have seen the Arctic Ice responed in similar fashion back in the 1930's...

The Arctic ice did respond with an exceptional melt for that time.

[ORH_wxman]

The southern Hemisphere has definitely been responsible for the halting of the warming trend going back to 2002...and the overall slowing going back to 2000. Since 2002, the southern hemisphere as a whole on GISS has cooled at about 0.05C per decade while the Northern Hemisphere has been warming at about the same magnitude to produce the net 0 trend since 2002 globally. Back to 2000, the Southern hemisphere sees the cooling trend weaken to 0.03C per decade and the northern hemisphere trend strengthen to about 0.16C per decade giving an average of +0.07C per decade globally since 2000.

[PhillipS]

The southern Hemisphere has definitely been responsible for the halting of the warming trend going back to 2002...and the overall slowing going back to 2000. Since 2002, the southern hemisphere as a whole on GISS has cooled at about 0.05C per decade while the Northern Hemisphere has been warming at about the same magnitude to produce the net 0 trend since 2002 globally. Back to 2000, the Southern hemisphere sees the cooling trend weaken to 0.03C per decade and the northern hemisphere trend strengthen to about 0.16C per decade giving an average of +0.07C per decade globally since 2000.

Where are you getting your info that indicates SH cooling? Here is the current GISS hemispheric temperature record plot:

Please point out the cooling you claim has occurred. As you may recall from numerous discussions in various threads, short term trends are notoriously unreliable for assessing climate change.

[ORH_wxman]

Where are you getting your info that indicates SH cooling? Here is the current GISS hemispheric temperature record plot:

Please point out the cooling you claim has occurred. As you may recall from numerous discussions in various threads, short term trends are notoriously unreliable for assessing climate change.

You can plot the GISS data from here yourself and note the 0.05C per decade cooling trend since 2002 that I noted.

http://data.giss.nas.../SH.Ts dSST.txt

Its not going to show up very well on the graph you posted since your graph goes back to 1880. And I agree that short term trends can be unreliable and should be taken with caution. That is why I take the recent spike of warming in the arctic the last 10 years with caution as well.