Msalgado Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 You should be leery of trying to gauge the areas around the poles on that particular map projection as there will be quite a bit of distortion. Thats why a polar projection is much preferred for those areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Considering the lack of incoming solar radiation the the surface would tend to be warmer than the mid levels/upper levels. the arctic does the same thing. A question for everyone, what impact would large hurricanes have on global satelitte based surface temperatures? I would assume hurricanes have very high albedo's in the .8 to 1.0 range in the CDO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vergent Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Here is the satellite based temperatures for the globe for May 2012. Note that Antarctica is generally cooler than what is depicted in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis maps. Anomaly maps have different definitions of normal. What is the base period of this map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 More importantly is that one is based on an atmospheric profile from 1500-40000ft. One is surface based temps. totally different things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Anomaly maps have different definitions of normal. What is the base period of this map? They are the same baseline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 More importantly is that one is based on an atmospheric profile from 1500-40000ft. One is surface based temps. totally different things. This. That can make a HUGE difference... especially in areas where strong inversions are favored (like the high latitudes in winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 This. That can make a HUGE difference... especially in areas where strong inversions are favored (like the high latitudes in winter) We see this often now at both poles. The Antarctic can see a much more anomolous range with the depth of cold that is reached there. The Arctic like the Kara and Barents last winter saw inversions with favorable patterns cause periods of 15-18C anomalies or 30-35F for a month or so at a time. Pretty wild. just eye balling it, it looks like some large anoamlies are in a Gulf, possibly with lower water depths and higher summer OHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 There are regions now boiling in the Northern Hemisphere. Think about how much extra heat this is going tobe pumping into the atmosphere. Beaufort and Baffin have 10C-14C+ sst anomalies those are ridiculous. the great lakes are hot. Even the Pacific has warmed up a bit. If this continues into winter, we won't be seeing much cold air in the NW territories until that heat is expelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 There are regions now boiling in the Northern Hemisphere. Think about how much extra heat this is going tobe pumping into the atmosphere. Beaufort and Baffin have 10C-14C+ sst anomalies those are ridiculous. the great lakes are hot. Even the Pacific has warmed up a bit.If this continues into winter, we won't be seeing much cold air in the NW territories until that heat is expelled. I actually wish the great lakes didn't cool down so fast, but they can drop 20 degrees in a weekend. Sent from my phone, please excuse my grammar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/climatechange/global-satellite-temperature-d-1/67869 June 2012 ended up as the 4th warmest June on record globally for the lower troposphere, as measured by satellites via Remote Sensing Systems (RSS). Satellite records go back to 1979. The global temperature anomaly for June 2012 was +0.338 C or +0.608 F. Last month, that figure was +0.232 C. Once again, you can see that the warmest anomalies are concentrated across the northern latitudes. By the way, the Arctic region from 60 N to 82.5 N experienced its warmest June on record for the lower troposphere. The anomaly was +1.829 C, which is also the third highest anomaly on record for that region. That is fascinating. http://vortex.nsstc.uah.edu/data/msu/t2lt/uahncdc.lt UAH also had a huge anomaly for the Northern regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 I read through JB's tweets this morning. More and more, I'm wondering where he gets his data from. First, the January 1-July 9, 2012 period saw Antarctica have mostly warm anomalies (NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data). The charts he had previously posted were inconsistent with the actual data (global warm anomalies, including those in Antarctica were much more widespread than what his charts implied). Second, this morning, he tweeted: Should the CFSV2 cool august show up over the northeast, it will correct the warmth so far. Before tho some very hot ne wx next week In fact, the latest monthly forecast from the CFSv2 shows the Northeast warmer than normal for August. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20120712.201208.gif At this time, I'm not yet sure how things will work out for August, but the CFSv2 monthly forecast for August is a warm one. There's no ambiguity that could lead one to suggest that the Northeast is depicted as cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 I read through JB's tweets this morning. More and more, I'm wondering where he gets his data from. First, the January 1-July 9, 2012 period saw Antarctica have mostly warm anomalies (NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data). The charts he had previously posted were inconsistent with the actual data (global warm anomalies, including those in Antarctica were much more widespread than what his charts implied). Second, this morning, he tweeted: Should the CFSV2 cool august show up over the northeast, it will correct the warmth so far. Before tho some very hot ne wx next week In fact, the latest monthly forecast from the CFSv2 shows the Northeast warmer than normal for August. http://www.cpc.ncep....0712.201208.gif At this time, I'm not yet sure how things will work out for August, but the CFSv2 monthly forecast for August is a warm one. There's no ambiguity that could lead one to suggest that the Northeast is depicted as cooler than normal. The entire denialist movement is one large scam. It's comical. JB has been getting snow bunnies on this forum for years riled up with lies and devious information. It's sad, hopefully after Weatherbell drops him he will be out of options. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The entire denialist movement is one large scam. It's comical. JB has been getting snow bunnies on this forum for years riled up with lies and devious information.It's sad, hopefully after Weatherbell drops him he will be out of options. The denialists aren't the ones bastardizing the temperature record. Steven Goddard has been putting out some good graphs on his site recently. Is it any wonder why we are setting more and more records? What is sad is that the alarmists will not find any problem with this bastardization and rationalize it in weird and unusual ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I'm not surprised the cfs predicts warmer than normal for august,because they are basing 1981-2010 temps as normal when will everyone realize that is not the norm anymore All the recent trends are historic and we must accept that this is now the new norm for the current climate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 GISS for June drops a surprising amount (IMO) considering what UAH and RSS came in as..... Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year 2001 38 40 54 42 52 44 52 46 49 46 65 51 48 46 34 49 47 53 2001 2002 70 69 88 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 58 63 66 50 51 2002 2003 67 50 52 48 52 41 48 63 60 67 49 68 56 53 51 51 51 59 2003 2004 53 66 58 52 35 34 19 42 47 60 66 46 48 50 63 48 32 58 2004 2005 69 55 67 62 55 57 54 57 66 72 64 63 62 60 57 62 56 67 2005 2006 47 63 58 44 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 72 55 54 58 48 53 59 2006 2007 88 63 64 67 61 53 55 55 51 54 48 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007 2008 15 25 64 43 40 34 53 35 52 55 57 48 43 43 26 49 41 55 2008 2009 54 46 47 48 55 60 65 55 64 60 68 60 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009 2010 68 74 85 76 65 55 49 53 53 62 70 42 63 64 67 75 53 62 2010 2011 44 42 56 55 42 50 65 65 50 55 47 44 51 51 43 51 60 50 2011 2012 34 41 47 56 64 56****************************** ********* 40 56********** 2012 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I won't be surprised if GISS and NCDC come in very warm for June. I actually agreed with this statement when you made it.....are you surprised at the decrease from May? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 GISS for June drops a surprising amount (IMO) considering what UAH and RSS came in as..... Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year 2001 38 40 54 42 52 44 52 46 49 46 65 51 48 46 34 49 47 53 2001 2002 70 69 88 55 56 47 56 45 52 50 50 37 56 58 63 66 50 51 2002 2003 67 50 52 48 52 41 48 63 60 67 49 68 56 53 51 51 51 59 2003 2004 53 66 58 52 35 34 19 42 47 60 66 46 48 50 63 48 32 58 2004 2005 69 55 67 62 55 57 54 57 66 72 64 63 62 60 57 62 56 67 2005 2006 47 63 58 44 41 54 42 63 54 60 65 72 55 54 58 48 53 59 2006 2007 88 63 64 67 61 53 55 55 51 54 48 39 58 61 74 64 54 51 2007 2008 15 25 64 43 40 34 53 35 52 55 57 48 43 43 26 49 41 55 2008 2009 54 46 47 48 55 60 65 55 64 60 68 60 57 56 49 50 60 64 2009 2010 68 74 85 76 65 55 49 53 53 62 70 42 63 64 67 75 53 62 2010 2011 44 42 56 55 42 50 65 65 50 55 47 44 51 51 43 51 60 50 2011 2012 34 41 47 56 64 56****************************** ********* 40 56********** 2012 Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec J-D D-N DJF MAM JJA SON Year LEK, How does this relate to the land-sea temp.'s at the following link? ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat When is June going to be updated in this one? Edit and aside: Having all of these different tables (and maps that don't even come close to agreeing) representing global temp.'s makes following this topic a bit confusing. How many different tables are there for goodness sakes? I know some vary because of using different bases for normals. However, it seems there are also multiple tables for the same base periods that vary with who put together the table. In these situations, I tend to pick one that seems to be rather accurate as well as relevant and mainly just follow that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Was Feb 1998 the warmest anomaly to date? edit looks like Jan 2007 was higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 That forecast map shows a beautiful consistent monsoon plume if its dropping the temps that much over August. I hope that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 LEK, How does this relate to the land-sea temp.'s at the following link? ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/anomalies/monthly.land_ocean.90S.90N.df_1901-2000mean.dat When is June going to be updated in this one? Edit and aside: Having all of these different tables (and maps that don't even come close to agreeing) representing global temp.'s makes following this topic a bit confusing. How many different tables are there for goodness sakes? I know some vary because of using different bases for normals. However, it seems there are also multiple tables for the same base periods that vary with who put together the table. In these situations, I tend to pick one that seems to be rather accurate as well as relevant and mainly just follow that one. There are 5 data sets....3 from various global surface obs. (GISS, NCDC, and HadCrut) and 2 satellite derived surface temps. (UAH and RSS). Of course the base periods are important to the actual numbers......however, when determining what the trend is over "xx" years, the base periods referenced mean zilch, as long as the entire record of the dataset is referenced to the new base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I actually agreed with this statement when you made it.....are you surprised at the decrease from May? Yes I am. Let's see if we can figure out why. You think Tropical Activity played a role besides Antarctica? We had and I am guessing 5-8 systems globally in June if you count TD's or maybe 4-5 actual cyclones and larger ones? I have read quite a bit about TC's having 1.0 albedo's in the CDO. would they have a lasting impact once they are gone and water SST drop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Hello All- I'm relatively new to this board, but I have been learning from reading all your posts about climate change and have really enjoyed the experience. I don't frequently post here since I honestly don't believe I'm qualified. I apologize if these questions below have been addressed at length in other threads. I have a few questions for the experts here that I have been trouble deducing from all the back and forth debate. -Has there been been a decline in the growth of temperature in the last 10-15 years or so? I know JB isn't well respected in the met community, but many skeptics are following his lead in saying temperatures have in fact stabilized. -Does anyone have any model projections they can share for the next couple of decades? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Hello All- I'm relatively new to this board, but I have been learning from reading all your posts about climate change and have really enjoyed the experience. I don't frequently post here since I honestly don't believe I'm qualified. I apologize if these questions below have been addressed at length in other threads. I have a few questions for the experts here that I have been trouble deducing from all the back and forth debate. -Has there been been a decline in the growth of temperature in the last 10-15 years or so? I know JB isn't well respected in the met community, but many skeptics are following his lead in saying temperatures have in fact stabilized. -Does anyone have any model projections they can share for the next couple of decades? Thanks in advance. Hello nflwxman, There are numerous indicators that the Earth has stopped warming in the atmosphere in the last 10-15 years. HadCRUT3 http://woodfortrees....last:2012/trend Wood For Trees Temp Index shows a slight warming, but that warming is not considered to be statistically significant. http://woodfortrees....last:2012/trend http://woodfortrees....last:2012/trend RSS MSU Sea Surface Temperatures have also flatlined: http://woodfortrees....last:2012/trend UAH and GISS both show warming over the last 15 years, but show a flatline over the last 10 years. UAH http://woodfortrees....last:2012/trend http://woodfortrees....last:2012/trend Ocean Heat Content gain at the 0-700 meter scale has significantly slowed, and has been rapidly diverging from modeled projections. Which can also be seen here: Temperatures have diverged from the IPCC scenarios, The slowing and eventual flatlining of the warming can be seen in the above chart. The temperatures falling out of the IPCC 95% confidence range has now been accepted into the peer reviewed literature. Source: Scafetta 2011. Let's just say that there are a lot of problems with the AGW Hypothesis proposed by the IPCC. Hansen's 1988 predictions were also an epic failure, but I won't get into that in this post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Incoming a flurry of counterview points. Sent from my phone, please excuse my grammar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Incoming a flurry of counterview points. I don't see how the other side can claim otherwise to a degree of rationality, these are facts from the leading temperature databases, and is in the scientific literature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherRusty Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Hello All- I'm relatively new to this board, but I have been learning from reading all your posts about climate change and have really enjoyed the experience. I don't frequently post here since I honestly don't believe I'm qualified. I apologize if these questions below have been addressed at length in other threads. I have a few questions for the experts here that I have been trouble deducing from all the back and forth debate. -Has there been been a decline in the growth of temperature in the last 10-15 years or so? I know JB isn't well respected in the met community, but many skeptics are following his lead in saying temperatures have in fact stabilized. -Does anyone have any model projections they can share for the next couple of decades? Thanks in advance. Yes there has been a slowdown in the rate of global warming over the past decade relative to the previous three decades. Does this mean the long term rise in global temperature has come to an end like the skeptics would like you to believe? Not if the physical basis for AGW has anything to say on the matter. Rather than take anyone's word for it, why not spend a little time investigating that scientific basis and come to your own conclusion? You might start HERE: and HERE (a blog by PHD in the Atmospheric Sciences candidate Chris Colose) ....This is as clear and concise as it gets folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerryM Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Hello All- I'm relatively new to this board, but I have been learning from reading all your posts about climate change and have really enjoyed the experience. I don't frequently post here since I honestly don't believe I'm qualified. I apologize if these questions below have been addressed at length in other threads. I have a few questions for the experts here that I have been trouble deducing from all the back and forth debate. -Has there been been a decline in the growth of temperature in the last 10-15 years or so? I know JB isn't well respected in the met community, but many skeptics are following his lead in saying temperatures have in fact stabilized. -Does anyone have any model projections they can share for the next couple of decades? Thanks in advance. First problem is addressing us as experts. We're not. Experts actually work in the field and their opinions can be found at any number of government sites. To the best of my knowledge the only posters here that possess credentials are wxtrix and cmco6o5, the rest of us are I believe interested amateurs, and as such our opinions don't carry much weight. The thread Climate Change Primer might be of some use to you, but unless you favor conspiracy theories over peer reviewed opinions, I'd stick to government funded sites for truthful answers. Terry BTW I can think of no reason for the warming trend we've been experiencing to end any time soon, but I'm only an interested amateur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Yes there has been a slowdown in the rate of global warming over the past decade relative to the previous three decades. Does this mean the long term rise in global temperature has come to an end like the skeptics would like you to believe? Not if the physical basis for AGW has anything to say on the matter. Rather than take anyone's word for it, why not spend a little time investigating that scientific basis and come to your own conclusion? You might start HERE: and HERE (a blog by PHD in physics candidate Chris Colose) ....This is as clear and concise as it gets folks! I am not arguing that long term temp increases over the last 150 years have suddenly come to an end, just that we have not warmed like the IPCC and Hansen say we should have warmed. There has been no Global Warming over the past decade, not a "slow down." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 and HERE (a blog by PHD in physics candidate Chris Colose) ....This is as clear and concise as it gets folks! It is a basic given that the Greenhouse Effect exists, but it is also a given that if you increase the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth, you will also get warming. The amount of solar radiation reaching Earth is some of the most unusual high amounts during the entire Holocene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I am not arguing that long term temp increases over the last 150 years have suddenly come to an end, just that we have not warmed like the IPCC and Hansen say we should have warmed. There has been no Global Warming over the past decade, not a "slow down." That is just factually incorrect. The last ten years have been the warmest decade on record and 2011 was the warmest on record for the Arctic. You can blame the failure to set a new global record after the 2010 high on the La Nina as explained by the Texas state climatologist. http://blog.chron.com/climateabyss/2012/04/about-the-lack-of-warming/ So we see a couple of recent La Niñas have caused the recent global temperature trend to level off. But be honest: doesn’t it seem likely that, barring another major volcanic eruption, the next El Niño will cause global temperatures to break their previous record? Doesn’t it appear that whatever has caused global temperatures to rise over the past four decades is still going strong? So about that lack of warming: Yes, it’s real. You can thank La Niña. As for whether this means that Tyndall gases are no longer having an impact: Nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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