LakeEffectKing Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I will see you here in early July when UAH posts around a .42 to .47 TLT anomaly. you can tell me all about how the Earth is cooling. I'll hand it to you....you laid it out there, with a little "mustard" to boot.....but ulitimately a miss.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 June UAH came in with a +0.37 for the month. Why is there a sinusoidal curve plotted on top of that graph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'll hand it to you....you laid it out there, with a little "mustard" to boot.....but ulitimately a miss.... 99.99999% of the population would like to see a chaotic free weather world, not Friv.... Its ok though, he isn't going to "will" the ice caps away like a Jedi knight trying to lift a space ship from a swamp, its going to do its thing regardless of his hopes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I'll hand it to you....you laid it out there, with a little "mustard" to boot.....but ulitimately a miss.... Yeah that was a big fail. If friv wants to complain about other posters getting fiesty with him and being incorrect, then this is not a good example being set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Why is there a sinusoidal curve plotted on top of that graph? It's pulled from Spencer's site so idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Yeah that was a big fail. If friv wants to complain about other posters getting fiesty with him and being incorrect, then this is not a good example being set. Yeah, I tried telling him, but oh well, you can only give them a ladder when they have dug themselves into a hole, but you can't make them climb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Why is there a sinusoidal curve plotted on top of that graph? Per Dr. Spencer's page, below the graph: "The 4th order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 June UAH came in with a +0.37 for the month. That graph really demonstrates why the 1993-94 winter had so much arctic air around the nern hemisphere. Although the NAO was unfavorable, the amount of very cold/dense low level air just seeped down into the northern states, flattening the SE ridge. Very rarely are +NAO patterns good for the PA-NJ-NYC region but this year was an exception due to that excellent source region to our immediate north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Per Dr. Spencer's page, below the graph: "The 4th order polynomial fit to the data (courtesy of Excel) is for entertainment purposes only, and should not be construed as having any predictive value whatsoever." In other words, it's an underhanded attempt to mislead. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vergent Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 99.99999% of the population would like to see a chaotic free weather world, not Friv.... Its ok though, he isn't going to "will" the ice caps away like a Jedi knight trying to lift a space ship from a swamp, its going to do its thing regardless of his hopes. Yeah that was a big fail. If friv wants to complain about other posters getting fiesty with him and being incorrect, then this is not a good example being set. Yeah, I tried telling him, but oh well, you can only give them a ladder when they have dug themselves into a hole, but you can't make them climb. Let me get this right, Friv was predicting .42 for the second warmest June. It came in .37, the third warmest; an error of 12%, and you guys are drooling and giving high fives. I do recall you guys being off by 25% or more last year. I do not recall anyone rubbing it in. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/14045-predict-summer-2011-minimum-arctic-sea-ice-extent-millions-sq-km/page__st__140 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Let me get this right, Friv was predicting .42 for the second warmest June. It came in .37, the third warmest; an error of 12%, and you guys are drooling and giving high fives. I do recall you guys being off by 25% or more last year. I do not recall anyone rubbing it in. http://www.americanw...m/page__st__140 Technically it was .42-.47, but I'm not going to knock him. He had the stones to make a forecast, even if half the month was over when he made it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Technically it was .42-.47, but I'm not going to knock him. He had the stones to make a forecast, even if half the month was over when he made it. Yea i think vergent lost that concept with trying to point out something that people made forecast months ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 In other words, it's an underhanded attempt to mislead. Gotcha. Don't make me go all Climategate on you!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ben4vols Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Don't make me go all Climategate on you!!! Speaking of that, could we not call the cooling (manipulating) of Arctic stations in the 20's-40's in GISS temp record as "Hide the Incline"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 So much time is spent on global air temperatures when it makes up such a small fraction of the stored energy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 So much time is spent on global air temperatures when it makes up such a small fraction of the stored energy Increased global temperature is the hypothosized aspect of AGW that would supposedly effect EVERYONE.....that's why it gets the attention, and that is what the media has latched onto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Msalgado Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 The media has latched onto it because its the easiest thing to quantify where as the total heat content of the oceans is much harder to do so. The average person relates to it much easier than other aspects of climate change. That being said, I agree increasing global atmospheric temp is indeed a fundamental part of AGW theory and one that is verifying quite strongly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 UAH:BethesdaWx: +0.17°C Don Sutherland: +0.14°C Frivolousz21: +0.23°C Lake Effect King: +0.16°C Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.15°C Okie333: -0.11°C Skierinvermont: +0.20°C Snowstorms: +0.11°C Mean Guess: +0.13°C Lowest Guess: -0.11°C Highest Guess: +0.23°C So far through June, UAH is +0.15C Another Nina and we might not move up much more. The Nino stays and we are likely all going to have guessed to low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Let me get this right, Friv was predicting .42 for the second warmest June. It came in .37, the third warmest; an error of 12%, and you guys are drooling and giving high fives. I do recall you guys being off by 25% or more last year. I do not recall anyone rubbing it in. http://www.americanw...m/page__st__140 on top of that, that number was cherry picked by them out of the rest of the argument that spawned it. I am not surprised though. I would be looking at how 2012 was .37 and 2010 was .39 but 2010 channel 5 temps for the month ended up far far warmer over a .02 TLT difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Friv, that is because we are talking about the entire LOWER TROPOSPHERE and not just Channel 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Friv, that is because we are talking about the entire LOWER TROPOSPHERE and not just Channel 5. Which is why it was obvious June would be 2nd or 3rd warmest even half way through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I think it should be late this summer into early autumn that we begin to see the impacts from this El Niño. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Any comments regarding the following maps as well as the respective Joe Bastardi comments? 1) "Cold areas Australia, Antarctica as impressive as hot area over US." July 1-7, 2012 temp. anom.'s vs. 1981-2010 climo ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2) "as per winter idea on global temps.. fall about to start. JMA shows week 1. vs wk 3,4 global temps. blue increasing" "Even this week, just as much blue and cold as red and warm. Evidence shows why climate clowns are deceptive" JMA anom. fcasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Any comments regarding the following maps as well as the respective Joe Bastardi comments? 1) "Cold areas Australia, Antarctica as impressive as hot area over US." July 1-7, 2012 temp. anom.'s vs. 1981-2010 climo ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2) "as per winter idea on global temps.. fall about to start. JMA shows week 1. vs wk 3,4 global temps. blue increasing" "Even this week, just as much blue and cold as red and warm. Evidence shows why climate clowns are deceptive" JMA anom. fcasts I predict an uptick in the speed at which GISS historical temperature data is revised downward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I will say that in defense of JB's opponents, the JMA's whites are slightly above normal (avg. +0.5), not centered right at normal...i.e., whites and light blues cancel each other out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Last time I checked air temperatures were one small part of the entire system. So GaWx, exactly how do you account for the massive heat gains via SST increases and ice melt? Magic? "Natural Variability"? It's easy to tag something as true when you arbitrarily narrow the focus as to make it meaningless. Tell me... exactly what do you think will happen when we get to the point that the rest of the Arctic sea ice cap melts away in the summer? Oh wait... I know! All that energy will go into sensible heat and latent heat of vaporization instead of the latent heat of fusion. Do yourself a favor. Stop listening to this seriously misled clown and do your own thinking. Look at the real data... the meaningful data. For instance, I prefer ice volume over ice extent. Why? Well... if I forecasted the atmosphere in 2D, I'd bust horribly every time... and for good damn reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Last time I checked air temperatures were one small part of the entire system. So GaWx, exactly how do you account for the massive heat gains via SST increases and ice melt? Magic? "Natural Variability"? It's easy to tag something as true when you arbitrarily narrow the focus as to make it meaningless. Tell me... exactly what do you think will happen when we get to the point that the rest of the Arctic sea ice cap melts away in the summer? Oh wait... I know! All that energy will go into sensible heat and latent heat of vaporization instead of the latent heat of fusion. Do yourself a favor. Stop listening to this seriously misled clown and do your own thinking. Look at the real data... the meaningful data. For instance, I prefer ice volume over ice extent. Why? Well... if I forecasted the atmosphere in 2D, I'd bust horribly every time... and for good damn reason. Do yourself a favor and get off the elitist bullS*(**! mantra. Seriously, Larry has been one of the fairest of all in this forum when it comes to objectivity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Do yourself a favor and get off the elitist bullS*(**! mantra. Seriously, Larry has been one of the fairest of all in this forum when it comes to objectivity. Like hell he has. He supports your views, hence you rushing to defend him. Say nothing of the point of the post. Fact of the matter is that the data doesn't support it. Hence my ball-busting when he whipped out a chart of extremely-short term air temperatures to support JB, of all people. Sure, he may have worded it carefully, but we all get exactly what he was trying to say. Tired of this beating around the bush. If you can't defend it, I will bust you on it.... hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Any comments regarding the following maps as well as the respective Joe Bastardi comments? 1) "Cold areas Australia, Antarctica as impressive as hot area over US." July 1-7, 2012 temp. anom.'s vs. 1981-2010 climo ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 2) "as per winter idea on global temps.. fall about to start. JMA shows week 1. vs wk 3,4 global temps. blue increasing" "Even this week, just as much blue and cold as red and warm. Evidence shows why climate clowns are deceptive" JMA anom. fcasts I bet if we could make an overlay map with AGW news stories over these images, the news stories would be concentrated over the darker red populated areas; the blue area would be quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Like hell he has. He supports your views, hence you rushing to defend him. Say nothing of the point of the post. Fact of the matter is that the data doesn't support it. Hence my ball-busting when he whipped out a chart of extremely-short term air temperatures to support JB, of all people. Sure, he may have worded it carefully, but we all get exactly what he was trying to say. Tired of this beating around the bush. If you can't defend it, I will bust you on it.... hard. I'm not sure what "views" of mine he supports, but I'll go to bat for ANYONE that is condensendingly told to "think for yourself" or "do yourself a favor". Larry has proven over the past 5+ years since I've been reading his posts that he indeed "thinks for himself".... And your busting people hard "on it" serves no one in a debate, other than to shield your own self insecurities of your point.....ie...you wouldn't make a good teacher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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