NYCSuburbs Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I don't remember the last time I saw Alaska warmer than average... that's definitely an improvement from where we are now. The pattern doesn't completely flip but at least it's way better than what it has been until now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 NYC and the area only got down to 35. So the string of no readings below 32 continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 NYC and the area only got down to 35. So the string of no readings below 32 continues. In order to out-do the streak from 2002, we have to stay above 32 until 12pm on Saturday (2/4). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 In order to out-do the streak from 2002, we have to stay above 32 until 12pm on Saturday (2/4). if we miss 32 tonight, then it seems likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Feb : 15-30 inches Of rain? Geez we might have flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 DT's storm looks nice on the GFS Of rain? Geez we might have flooding problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I just wonder if a decent storm could bail us out for a winter that's nearly on par with 2001-2002. We are struggling to get to freezing in LATE JANUARY, that's insane. We not see a temperature below freezing until next week (crazy) and given how warm it's expected to be for the next few days, we might see major blooming going on around here. If it wasn't for the calendar, I'd think the last couple of months were early Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html something to look forward too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Random question. On the NESIS scale, the lowest event is a 1.19 out of 45 Northeast snow events which is the 1/25-26 1987 storm. Is there a storm ranked even lower but still ranks at least a 1 value on the NESIS scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm pretty sure it shows all ranked events. Not just the top 45. If there was something between a 1 and a 1.18 it would have been included. Random question. On the NESIS scale, the lowest event is a 1.19 out of 45 Northeast snow events which is the 1/25-26 1987 storm. Is there a storm ranked even lower but still ranks at least a 1 value on the NESIS scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm pretty sure it shows all ranked events. Not just the top 45. If there was something between a 1 and a 1.18 it would have been included. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/rsi/nesis This is the link I got that from though, it doesn't go under 1.19 for a rank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Right because only 45 storms have occured that would be register on the NESIS scale. Table 2: Ranks 45 high-impact snowstorms that affected the Northeast urban corridor. If there were actually 47 storms that got a 1.0 or greater why would they leave 2 off? I'm assuming the 45 are all the storms that have been graded. It just so happens that #45 got a 1.19 http://www.ncdc.noaa...d-ice/rsi/nesis This is the link I got that from though, it doesn't go under 1.19 for a rank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Temps stayed below guidance for the most part topping out in the upper 30s. With the stiff NW breeze its quite chilly out there. Tomorrow's 15 degree jump and lack of wind should make for a very pleasant final day of January. Knowing there's a good chance for a shift to colder weather and potential for snow makes it that much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 10-30 2011 is currently the only October snowstorm every recorded on the NESIS scale at 1.75 Category 1, although it's still preliminary. Surprised no November storms every made the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Temps stayed below guidance for the most part topping out in the upper 30s. With the stiff NW breeze its quite chilly out there. Tomorrow's 15 degree jump and lack of wind should make for a very pleasant final day of January. Knowing there's a good chance for a shift to colder weather and potential for snow makes it that much better. Looks like our temps might rise overnight. 40s/50s just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 They're not supposed to, but I suppose they might bottom out around midnight and then start climbing shortly after .TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. Looks like our temps might rise overnight. 40s/50s just to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 NYC and the area only got down to 35. So the string of no readings below 32 continues. 34 here, and BTW can someone tell me why puddles freeze seemingly way above 32 even with a warm ground.....yesterday I saw a pussle with a skim of ice forming at 38 and the same goes for frost almost at 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 34 here, and BTW can someone tell me why puddles freeze seemingly way above 32 even with a warm ground.....yesterday I saw a pussle with a skim of ice forming at 38 and the same goes for frost almost at 40. Cold air sinks, so the air at the ground is the coldest, but air temperature is measured higher at about 6 feet, where the air is warmer. So the air right at ground level may be 32, but at 6 feet 35. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Jma still thinks its 3 days ago. Thursday/Friday: http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_96HR.gif Sunday: http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_144HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 37 right now at LGA (proxy for KNYC right now), we will have to see if it gets to 32 before the warm front/southerly winds kick in. Right now winds are light out of the west, which generally limits much cooling at night here regardless of season. It's going to be close though... If we do NOT hit 32 in the next 8 or so hours, we could go clear through Sunday without hitting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 37 right now at LGA (proxy for KNYC right now), we will have to see if it gets to 32 before the warm front/southerly winds kick in. Right now winds are light out of the west, which generally limits much cooling at night here regardless of season. It's going to be close though... If we do NOT hit 32 in the next 8 or so hours, we could go clear through Sunday without hitting it. Yea, pretty crazy. Looks like the superbowl storm will bust as i predicted, i said February 15 is the date. When i was swimming in Maui i made sure to kick start the MJO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rygar Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 A lot folks banking on model runs 200+ hours out. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 No one should write off the super bowl storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yea, pretty crazy. Looks like the superbowl storm will bust as i predicted, i said February 15 is the date. When i was swimming in Maui i made sure to kick start the MJO... Haha nice work. That sounds like a reasonable time period to me too, like Feb 10-20ish. Regarding our streak, winds have now switched to being out of the SW at LGA, temp is steady at 37. The PWS by me in midtown has creeped up to 42. I've also been keeping an eye on the dewpoints in DC and Philly to our south as they start to rise. DC is at 41/23 right now compared to 47/10 at 5pm. PHL is at 37/16 compared to 40/8 at 5pm. We are still sitting at 37/10, but lets see if the next hourly ob has an increase in the dewpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 A lot folks banking on model runs 200+ hours out. Ugh A few stray weenies might be banking on a 240hr model prog, and that's to be expected, but if you read up on this forum, most of the quality posters are excited about a much better pattern after the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 No one should write off the super bowl storm. I'm still in until at least Thursday. Keep hope alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Newark up 3 deg last hour and LGA at 37. Looks like the streak will hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 A few stray weenies might be banking on a 240hr model prog, and that's to be expected, but if you read up on this forum, most of the quality posters are excited about a much better pattern after the 10th. ...granted its 10 days away,but no local ocm's not even hinting @ the changes that are being discussed here..not last nites or this mornings.. not even a inkling..maybe late this week they might start talking about it. we need joe cioffi's "joestradamous" to discuss the long range !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Newark up 3 deg last hour and LGA at 37. Looks like the streak will hold. not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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