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Jan 2012 Banter Thread


LongBeachSurfFreak

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Guest Patrick

Trials, imagine if we see 20 inches next month and then 20 more for March? :drunk:

Doubtful we see back to back twenty inch months this winter..unless you are referring to a certain type of porn.

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In other news, the GFS is a torch for most of next week.

Yeah it looks like we could sneak in a few nice days maybe Tuesday and Wednesday. But I'm a little concerned about the presence of clouds and showers. Our area remains near the moist flow even despite +6 850 temperatures.

And then by the end of the week the models are trying to lock on to a potential big storm with wintry prospects. So it's going to be a big week.

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In other news, the GFS is a torch for most of next week.

I'm disappointed this winter hasn't produced any 70F+ days. Even though we've had a ton of +1o to +15 departures, no real extreme +25 - +30 departure days, which tend to be typical in torch winters, ala Jan 07, Jan 08.

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Yeah it looks like we could sneak in a few nice days maybe Tuesday and Wednesday. But I'm a little concerned about the presence of clouds and showers. Our area remains near the moist flow even despite +6 850 temperatures.

And then by the end of the week the models are trying to lock on to a potential big storm with wintry prospects. So it's going to be a big week.

Yes, it could be a dirty warm sector but this winter in similar setups, temps have overperformed. Its great the GFS is showing a stronger PNA single in 2 weeks, but that is still just fantasy.

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I'm disappointed this winter hasn't produced any 70F+ days. Even though we've had a ton of +1o to +15 departures, no real extreme +25 - +30 departure days, which tend to be typical in torch winters, ala Jan 07, Jan 08.

+30 would be insane, but we did have a +20 day earlier this month. Its been more consistent in the 10 to 15 range.

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Through tomorrow the NAM puts out less than .4" of rain meanwhile the GFS is over 1.3"

Maybe not that little, but lower amounts appear reasonable at this time. Most of the precipitation tonight is staying to the north of NYC, and the back end of the storm tomorrow morning does contain locally heavy rain but the heavier rain isn't widespread. Some spots could locally pick up to 1 inch under the heavier rain bands tomorrow morning, but otherwise it doesn't look like a big rainstorm at least from the latest short range models and the radar trends for tonight.

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As of 8 am, the warm front had cleared NYC and the south shore of Long Island, but had yet to clear the Connecticut coast. From NYC southward, temperatures were in the 50s and even 60s. North of the front, readings were in the 30s and 40s.

Some 8 am temperatures:

Atlantic City: 56°

Boston: 42°

Bridgeport: 43°

Baltimore: 62°

Hartford: 35°

Islip: 52°

New Haven: 39°

New York City: 51°

Norfolk: 67° (earlier high of 68°)

Philadelphia: 58°

Providence: 39°

Raleigh: 61° (earlier high of 67°)

Richmond: 64° (earlier high of 66°)

Salisbury: 64°

Washington, DC (DCA): 61°

Wilmington, DE: 54°

Worcester: 33°

Considering that the temperatures yesterday and last night exceeded the modeled output in a number of cities to the south, I still suspect that Philadelphia and possibly New York City will reach 60°. Even Worcester has a shot at 50° later today or early tonight.

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