killabud Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 atown you were being pretty sarcastic in the beginning of decmeber,if i recall correctly how'd that work out for you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The GEFS and even the Euro ensembles have been very inconsistent in predicting the AO and NAO through the medium range so far this winter...I wouldn't get excited about those charts at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The GEFS and even the Euro ensembles have been very inconsistent in predicting the AO and NAO through the medium range so far this winter...I wouldn't get excited about those charts at all. Thank you that was my point... I do not trust the GFS one little iota of a bit but with what it was showing an extremely positive PNA with a positive AO..it would not necessarily represent a colder pattern just because of the PNA spike. PNA is only one teleconnection out of many... Until that Alaskan Vortex or lower anomalies over that region are gone..I would expect the same general pattern to continue....transient cold shots with warmer over all.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 atown you were being pretty sarcastic in the beginning of decmeber,if i recall correctly how'd that work out for you? Not sure what you are referring to? If you are referencing when i thought the pattern was going to change...I already acknowledge that did not happen and the reason why (Alaskan Vortex) ..that was quite some time back... I have come to pretty much the reality that outside the thread the needle scenarios that winter is pretty much over....and i came to that reality back on January 1st.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Not sure what you are referring to? If you are referencing when i thought the pattern was going to change...I already acknowledge that did not happen and the reason why (Alaskan Vortex) ..that was quite some time back... I have come to pretty much the reality that outside the thread the needle scenarios that winter is pretty much over....and i came to that reality back on January 1st.... you were just as insistent then as you are now,right down to the sarcastic posts...I'm practically "weather illiterate",so i'm not saying anything in regards to your thoughts about the winter being "right" or "wrong"....just find it kind of funny that you would have the same exact attitude...but opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Remember: Atmospheric indices do not produce weather. They are proxies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 You know the pattern sucks when on January 25th the only Winter Storm Warning in effect over the entire country is in northern Alaska. Wind chill values as cold as -80 up there right now. Sounds like a good place for Metfan to move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I agree with you guys the Alaskan Vortex has been the big bully on the block all winter . Lovers of winter wana make Chicken soup out of Chicken $%^& . Theres nothing in this pattern to make me think anything other than the beat goes on . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Central Park is, average wise, two-and-a-half degrees from a top ten warmest January. Tough, but possible to get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The 12z Euro is very warm for Friday, +10 850 temps approaching the city http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 50's for most of the area on Groundhog day per the DGEX, early spring? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 50's for most of the area on Groundhog day per the DGEX, early spring? I mentioned in an earlier post that there is no need for a Groundhog Day this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I mentioned in an earlier post that there is no need for a Groundhog Day this year. Most of the time he goes cold, must be a rodent spawn of JB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I mentioned in an earlier post that there is no need for a Groundhog Day this year. More than a week out...must be good then. I hope temps in the 50's are not spring although the way this winter has gone I would'nt be suprised if it stayed like that all spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Most of the time he goes cold, must be a rodent spawn of JB. He wont be that dumb this year, meaning the rodent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Is this weather.com forecast accurate, it seems awfully warm. http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USNJ0125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 http://usnews.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/01/24/10226056-forecast-north-set-for-colder-months-south-warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Way out on the long range Euro, but could be another snow producing clipper/overrunning event. Temperatures are a bit too warm but high pressure is in nice position with northern stream energy moving through. Something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Way out on the long range Euro, but could be another snow producing clipper/overrunning event. Temperatures are a bit too warm but high pressure is in nice position with northern stream energy moving through. Something to keep an eye on. Here is the next frame. Looks similiar as last Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 and the NOAGPS says you can take your cold temps and shove them up your *** Big lakes cutter late in the period. Rain for everyone except perhaps the Dakotas and northern Minnesota Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 18z Dgex continues to be on crack and showing snow for Sunday night again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Here is the next frame. Looks similiar as last Saturday. Except temperatures are much warmer this time around until after the system is well offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Here is the next frame. Looks similiar as last Saturday. No snow on euro for NYC. Warm and light rain. CNE and north get a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 No snow on euro for NYC. Warm and light rain. CNE and north get a few inches. 168 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 No snow on euro for NYC. Warm and light rain. CNE and north get a few inches. that's a bit too skeptical, would be a cold rain in the city but the temps could be marginal for the western burbs. That's why I said it was something to keep an eye on, nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 168 hours out Just letting you know that today's 12z euro has no snow for us in that timeframe. Hug the 18z dgex for snow. Drops 2" for us and 7"+ for Cape Cod, hours 96-114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 168 hours out Just give it up lol If there was a weenie of the century award you would win unanimously and the saddest part is that you would be proud of it :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I have been hanging in the political forum all day, damn thats a noisy place. Feels like naptime when i come to this place, so peaceful and calm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 18z dgex is a weenie alert for Boston and Cape: Hour 102: Hour 108: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Boston gets creamed on the DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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