TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 BUST dont look at me, i said it was a turd for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 BUST You should be a meteorologist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I guess you didn't read what snowgoose wrote. O well. I read it. So what? Im confident it will keep trending north as we approach and by Friday, SNE will be looking at brief snow to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I read it. So what? Im confident it will keep trending north as we approach and by Friday, SNE will be looking at brief snow to rain. Were you confident about the Feb 22,2008 event? The Nam barely has any precip for us. It has a lot of low level cold though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You should be a meteorologist. you on the other hand shouldn't be...you would forecast snow from every event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 you on the other hand shouldn't be...you would forecast snow from every event lol That's why I will not be one. I am horrible in Math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Does anyone want to go to work for me? I don't want to miss the rest of the 12z models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Were you confident about the Feb 22,2008 event? The Nam barely has any precip for us. It has a lot of low level cold though. No it doesnt. Its warm for the coast and into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hard to see much in the way of measurable snowfall for quite a while after Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 you on the other hand shouldn't be...you would forecast snow from every event lol He would forecast snow with a line on tstorms in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 No it doesnt. Its warm for the coast and into SNE. Yes when most of the precip is out of the area. We are fighting over the 78 hour Nam lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 We better not get shafted and SNE gets hit. If it's not going to snow I want all of SNE to go down with me. Yea I'm petty like that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 We better not get shafted and SNE gets hit. If it's not going to snow I want all of SNE to go down with me. Yea I'm petty like that lol. I think we all do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yes when most of the precip is out of the area. We are fighting over the 78 hour Nam lol. You do realize that the euro is the ONLY model that has snow for us right? And I mean any model. gfs, gefs, nam, dgex, eta, rsm, srefs, ggem and jma are all rain. And the euro is slowly trending north with every run. Last nights 0z euro gave barely anything for you. Maybe 1" of snow. And 2"-3" away from the ocean into NYC and LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 i wish 2/22/08 never happened. It's the 1/25/00 of SWFE and will never happen again. Now everytime we get a SWFE people talk about how it will over perform like 2/22/08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Alex, a lot of the times,the precip comes in faster than what the models show when overrunning events occur. You can toss in the towel with Trail mix but I am not doing so just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You do realize that the euro is the ONLY model that has snow for us right? And I mean any model. gfs, gefs, nam, dgex, eta, rsm, srefs, ggem and jma are all rain. And the euro is slowly trending north with every run. Last nights 0z euro gave barely anything for you. Maybe 1" of snow. And 2"-3" away from the ocean into NYC and LGA. Forgot to add, Ukie is rain also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 +4 for the month so far with the last 10 days running well above normal? i don't know how much we have to be above normal to make the top 10 but with no arctic outbreaks on the horizon, even without a torch, I think we are quite warm for the month. I don't even think we crack top 10 right now to be honest, we have virtually no shot at top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 i wish 2/22/08 never happened. It's the 1/25/00 of SWFE and will never happen again. Now everytime we get a SWFE people talk about how it will over perform like 2/22/08. You do know that the Feb 2008 event is one of the analogs by CIPS for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 There's a Pats playoff game, of course it will snow (will be almost 10 years to the day of the 2002 Oakland game, our only snow that winter). I think we all do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Alex, a lot of the times,the precip comes in faster than what the models show when overrunning events occur. You can toss in the towel with Trail mix but I am not doing so just yet. Its basically always that it comes in faster, the only times it won't is when you have an exceptionally strong high to the north that is slow to exit, this occurred in PDII, but generally the precip is at least 3-4 hours earlier than models show at 24 hours and beyond 48 hours they usually do not resolve the advanced precip well at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 +4 for the month so far with the last 10 days running well above normal? i don't know how much we have to be above normal to make the top 10 but with no arctic outbreaks on the horizon, even without a torch, I think we are quite warm for the month. Where are you getting this? Models and ensembles have backed off the mega heat ridge they had a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You do know that the Feb 2008 event is one of the analogs by CIPS for this storm. that means nothing. Having followed CIPS for a while, it has put of plenty of weenie analagues which provide nothing but false hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Wow.. I have to say TheTrials called this event for saturday.... "It will never snow - it will eventually come north and be rain for all of us.." Unless something changes, it appears as though this "event" on saturday won't be much of anything.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 +4 for the month so far with the last 10 days running well above normal? i don't know how much we have to be above normal to make the top 10 but with no arctic outbreaks on the horizon, even without a torch, I think we are quite warm for the month. I think we're roughly 2 degrees below the 10th warmest though right now or 1.5, so it may take quite a bit to get it up into there, especially if we don't mega-torch like it looked like we would at one point, at least for several days straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I think we're roughly 2 degrees below the 10th warmest though right now or 1.5, so it may take quite a bit to get it up into there, especially if we don't mega-torch like it looked like we would at one point, at least for several days straight. Seems like both torches and cold shots have overperformed this month (we got into the mid 50s overnight), so I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple days of mega torch next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 that means nothing. Having followed CIPS for a while, it has put of plenty of weenie analagues which provide nothing but false hope. You have to use the composite guidance impacts more than anything. Its funny though, not only is 2/22/08 in there but 2/09/94, 2/12/94, and 12/20/08 are as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Yeah these brief cold shots with warmups in between really kill our averages. Yesterday wasn't a 50 degree day/nor is today but both days registered brief high temps in the 50s since our warmup came late at night. Even if we're down into the 20s by midnight tonight we still will be at least +7 for the day after a +13 yesterday. I never thought Dec would end up at +6 either but it did. Seems like both torches and cold shots have overperformed this month (we got into the mid 50s overnight), so I wouldn't be surprised to see a couple days of mega torch next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 You have to use the composite guidance impacts more than anything. Its funny though, not only is 2/22/08 in there but 2/09/94, 2/12/94, and 12/20/08 are as well SMH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Since I won't be around and couldn't stand to miss the one "snowstorm" of the season I'm gonna have to root against this one for you guys. But bring on an inch tomorrow afternoon/evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.