IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Have you seen any accumulating snow this winter? An inch is like getting a blizzard this winter. I don't need to see ANY accumulating snow this winter. I had 8.5" in October. If you were not as fortunate, thats the price you pay for living near the coast, most of the time you miss out and occasionally you jackpot ala Boxing Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Nam is cold at 84 hours, just in time for the clipper. I don't need to see ANY accumulating snow this winter. I had 8.5" in October. If you were not as fortunate, thats the price you pay for living near the coast, most of the time you miss out and occasionally you jackpot ala Boxing Day. Well a lot of people want to see snow before this winter is over. We haven't missed out on a lot near the coast in the last 2 winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Nam is cold at 84 hours, just in time for the clipper. Well a lot of people want to see snow before this winter is over. We haven't missed out on a lot near the coast in the last 2 winters. When you get a great setup with blocking the coast can and has done very well. The past two winters are not the norm and more people need to realize this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 When you get a great setup with blocking the coast can and has done very well. The past two winters are not the norm and more people need to realize this. Of course we realize that. This year isn't normal with no snowfall at all. The average snowfall for NYC is around 26 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 When you get a great setup with blocking the coast can and has done very well. The past two winters are not the norm and more people need to realize this. The coast and LI did much better then inland in 2008-2009 as well. From Queens on east received 33"-45" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 When you get a great setup with blocking the coast can and has done very well. The past two winters are not the norm and more people need to realize this. You do know that every part of LI, north of the LIE, has received over 420" of snow in the last 10 years right? And since 1996, the average snowfall is 42" a year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 When you get a great setup with blocking the coast can and has done very well. The past two winters are not the norm and more people need to realize this. Yes but you live in new jersey...id gladly trade living in the empire state for 10 inches less snow a year and no severe flooding threat. You getting those sandbags ready for the spring melt?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 NCEP and ESRL have the NAO going negative by the end of the month. They haven't agreed like this at all this winter. Lets hope it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Yes but you live in new jersey...id gladly trade living in the empire state for 10 inches less snow a year and no severe flooding threat. You getting those sandbags ready for the spring melt?? LI in the past 15 years has received the most snow in our region, outside of NWNJ and the mountains of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I don't need to see ANY accumulating snow this winter. I had 8.5" in October. If you were not as fortunate, thats the price you pay for living near the coast, most of the time you miss out and occasionally you jackpot ala Boxing Day. I thought you were "always looking for snow, even in July?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 By the way, Mt. Holly has issued a WWA for NW NJ for the system tonight into early tomorrow morning from 9 PM tonight to 9 AM tomorrow. I am in this advisory, although I am in Central/Southern Somerset County, I feel that the effects will be mainly confined to Northern Somerset County, although I could see a brief period of sleet/freezing rain where I am in C NJ. The CAD needs to be especially monitored, because this cool air at the surface is not going to go away so easily without a fight, especially considering it is our coldest airmass of the season. Should be REALLY interesting to see where the rain/mix line sets up. ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. IT IS IN EFFECT FROM 900 PM THIS EVENING UNTIL 900 AM TUESDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON, MONROE AND NORTHAMPTON. THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES OF SUSSEX, WARREN, MORRIS, HUNTERDON AND SOMERSET. * HAZARD TYPES...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. * TIMING...FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND WALKWAYS WILL LIKELY BECOME ICE COVERED AND SLIPPERY. If the precipitation comes in early enough, northern NJ and SE NY could see a brief period of light snow/sleet late this evening before 3z, as 850mb temps rise above freezing by then, so anything that falls after 3z should be in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain. Outside of NW NJ, some sleet could fall although IMO it should be brief, with the freezing rain focusing in the advisory areas in NW NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Of course we realize that. This year isn't normal with no snowfall at all. The average snowfall for NYC is around 26 inches. I feel that number is a tad inflated over the past two years, but yes I would agree that this winter is also not typical. Afterall we are talking about record breaking temperatures being a distinct possability in the long range. The second half of February could deliver, but we better start seeing some signs of that coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 If the precipitation comes in early enough, northern NJ and SE NY could see a brief period of light snow/sleet late this evening before 3z, as 850mb temps rise above freezing by then, so anything that falls after 3z should be in the form of sleet and/or freezing rain. Outside of NW NJ, some sleet could fall although IMO it should be brief, with the freezing rain focusing in the advisory areas in NW NJ. Agreed. I decided to post that in the OBS thread since it seemed too technical for the Banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I feel that number is a tad inflated over the past two years, but yes I would agree that this winter is also not typical. Afterall we are talking about record breaking temperatures being a distinct possability in the long range. The second half of February could deliver, but we better start seeing some signs of that coming soon. The torch has been limited on the recent GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Been way too cold past two days, as said before, theres no need for 15 degrees if it wont snow. then its just miserable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I thought you were "always looking for snow, even in July?" You are talking to a guy who thinks that LI and NYC has only seen 2 good winters and the rest, the coast does terrible. Meanwhile since 1996, LI has averages a WHOPPING 40"+ of snow (north of the LIE) NYC has averaged 31" of snow since 1996. LGA close to 34". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 LI in the past 15 years has received the most snow in our region, outside of NWNJ and the mountains of course. I'd like to see some stats to back that statement up. I'm not going to get into this argument again, but everyone likes to forget how many times the city and Long Island switch over to sleet and rain while inland remains all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I feel that number is a tad inflated over the past two years, but yes I would agree that this winter is also not typical. Afterall we are talking about record breaking temperatures being a distinct possability in the long range. The second half of February could deliver, but we better start seeing some signs of that coming soon. You are really dense bro. Queens and LI received 30"-45" in 2008-2009 also. More then most of Jersey. And LI north of the LIE has received over 420" of snow in the past 10 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You are talking to a guy who thinks that LI and NYC has only seen 2 good winters and the rest, the coast does terrible. Meanwhile since 1996, LI has averages a WHOPPING 40"+ of snow (north of the LIE) NYC has average 31" of snow since 1996. LGA close to 34". Average snowfall for Northwestern NJ is in the 40-50" range. http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/njclimoverview.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'd like to see some stats to back that statement up. I'm not going to get into this argument again, but everyone likes to forget how many times the city and Long Island switch over to sleet and rain while inland remains all snow. Extremely dense person. Courtesy of northshorewx from Smithtown, LI: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 You are really dense bro. Queens and LI received 30"-45" in 2008-2009 also. More then most of Jersey. And LI north of the LIE has received over 420" of snow in the past 10 years! LI has been the jackpot in the past 2 winters. Upton really cashed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I'd like to see some stats to back that statement up. I'm not going to get into this argument again, but everyone likes to forget how many times the city and Long Island switch over to sleet and rain while inland remains all snow. Dude. Long Island is 120 miles long. You do realize you cannot generalize right? Montauk switches over well before the western parts of the island, yet still manages similar snowfall amounts. Logic (not sure if you use this) therefore says that being further east helps increase snowfall amounts in a similar proportion to the decrease due to being east, in some storms, helps...you follow? So yes, nobody argues the changeover is higher on the island, but many storms nail the island, where snows linger, sometimes with miller b's they cash in, when the western areas dont. Did you read all of the storms william posted? Not from the past two years?? You are so dense bro. Borderline trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 LI has been the jackpot in the past 2 winters. Upton really cashed in. The past 15 winters. LI has done extremely well since 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Dude. Long Island is 120 miles long. You do realize you cannot generalize right? Montauk switches over well before the western parts of the island, yet still manages similar snowfall amounts. Logic (not sure if you use this) therefore says that being further east helps increase snowfall amounts in a similar proportion to the decrease due to being east, in some storms, helps...you follow? So yes, nobody argues the changeover is higher on the island, but many storms nail the island, where snows linger, sometimes with miller b's they cash in, when the western areas dont. Did you read all of the storms william posted? Not from the past two years?? You are so dense bro. Borderline trolling. He's generalizing all of LI and NYC to the ocean facing areas. North of the LIE is a different world and averages more then NYC and a lot of Jersey. I posted proof how smithtown has cashed in BIG time in the past 15 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 He's generalizing all of LI and NYC to the ocean facing areas. North of the LIE is a different world and averages more then NYC and a lot of Jersey. I posted proof how smithtown has cashed in BIG time in the past 15 years. As "dense" as I may be, all of you are focusing on the past 15 winters, what about the past 150 years or so? I didn't say that it doesn't snow on Long Island, I simply stated that they miss out on almost all of the marginal setups temperature wise. Lately, the number of marginal setups have been low. It's always been cold enough to snow all the way to the coast or warm enough to bring rain everywhere. Tonight is one of those marginal setups but QPF is too low to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 As "dense" as I may be, all of you are focusing on the past 15 winters, what about the past 150 years or so? I didn't say that it doesn't snow on Long Island, I simply stated that they miss out on almost all of the marginal setups temperature wise. Lately, the number of marginal setups have been low. It's always been cold enough to snow all the way to the coast or warm enough to bring rain everywhere. Tonight is one of those marginal setups but QPF is too low to matter. Lately is the past 15 years. Not "2 years" that you have been claiming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 As "dense" as I may be, all of you are focusing on the past 15 winters, what about the past 150 years or so? I didn't say that it doesn't snow on Long Island, I simply stated that they miss out on almost all of the marginal setups temperature wise. Lately, the number of marginal setups have been low. It's always been cold enough to snow all the way to the coast or warm enough to bring rain everywhere. Tonight is one of those marginal setups but QPF is too low to matter. There are two types of marginal in my book. Marginal temp v. marginal precip. Many times NW wins for marginal temp and LI wins for marginal precip...and AG makes a great point with respect to marginal set ups on the island. South of southern state probably averages 5-10 inches less than north shore. Sometimes even where i am at the LIE sees less than areas like glen cove etc. Last winter, for example, 5 miles north of me in great neck had a good 2-3 inches more snow on the ground when the pattern warmed up and we did get some more marginal events, so the north shore v south shore is probably like the different between northern and southern monmouth, etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 this doesnt mean there will be a greenland block though NCEP and ESRL have the NAO going negative by the end of the month. They haven't agreed like this at all this winter. Lets hope it is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I think the conversation started as the past 15 years. Compared to long term averages LI has done much better as there have been far fewer changeover events and alot more dynamic snow events that favor the coast. The same could be said for the Jersey shore which normally does half of what north Jersey/NYC does and they have cashed in as well the past few winters. It's probably not a long term trend though. As "dense" as I may be, all of you are focusing on the past 15 winters, what about the past 150 years or so? I didn't say that it doesn't snow on Long Island, I simply stated that they miss out on almost all of the marginal setups temperature wise. Lately, the number of marginal setups have been low. It's always been cold enough to snow all the way to the coast or warm enough to bring rain everywhere. Tonight is one of those marginal setups but QPF is too low to matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 this doesnt mean there will be a greenland block though Yes I know but it will be a start if we get a -NAO. Maybe the 2nd half of the winter can be saved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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