MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 because of the clipper or the low that will pass to our south? Clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Bill Evans now has snow in the forecast for Friday ok it's a lock then-even JB is not hyping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Clipper NWS maintains a dry forecast My zone has a WWA for tonight for sleet and freezing rain up to 1/10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The problem with clipper Thursday night/Friday morning is we might get dry slotted between the first low over the lakes and the second low tries to form east of LI. Otherwise, temps would support would support snowfall. The problem with the Friday night- Sat overrunning event, is that temps might be too warm for snowfall, especially near the coast. However, we would have shot at couple inches, if the high setup, and weak and south storm track on the 0z Euro and 6z GFS verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JB is at again He said in his latest video that Feb and March could be like last Dec and Jan. He said the reason for his thinking is because of the ridging that is going to develop in Alaska and a Greenland block that will develop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 NYC happens to fall under 3 borderline situations for snow - snow/sleet to our N/W tonight, clipper that brings snow to just about everyone with a lower chance in NE NJ/NYC due to redevelopment on Thursday night, and an overrunning event that might be a bit too warm on Saturday. Not the best chances but given this winter I'll take any one of them. The ECM looks nice for Saturday, although it does have a history this winter of showing nice medium range storms before taking them away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sampson Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Wasn't sure if this belonged in Flexo's Pony thread or over here, but I captured this enormous Rainbow on Friday as the clouds began to clear. It hovered over the Lake Success area for about 10 minutes and was really a sight to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JB is at again He said in his latest video that Feb and March could be like last Dec and Jan. He said the reason for his thinking is because of the ridging that is going to develop in Alaska and a Greenland block that will develop. Please refrain from posting another one of his rediculous forecasts. There is no evedince to support such a claim. The NAO forecast is all over the place After showing a negative NAO on the EC ensembles for several runs, the EC has flipped again showing a moderatly positive NAO. One thing to note is that the AO is forecasted to plumit The PNA is forecasted to become negative The MJO forecast doesn't look promising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Please refrain from posting another one of his rediculous forecasts. There is no evedince to support such a claim. The NAO forecast is all over the place After showing a negative NAO on the EC ensembles for several runs, the EC has flipped again showing a moderatly positive NAO. One thing to note is that the AO is forecasted to plumit The PNA is forecasted to become negative The MJO forecast doesn't look promising I post his forecasts for his laugh. His track record this year is horrible. The indicies are terrible now but who knows how they will be in February and March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I post his forecasts for his laugh. His track record this year is horrible. The indicies are terrible now but who knows how they will be in February and March. It's just crazy, even if we get a west based negative NAO, + PNA block to develop over Greenland the chances of having a repeat of last December/January are extremely low. I'm happy I never paid to get any of his forecasts, just about anybody on this board could do an equal or better job forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It's just crazy, even if we get a west based negative NAO, + PNA block to develop over Greenland the chances of having a repeat of last December/January are extremely low. I'm happy I never paid to get any of his forecasts, just about anybody on this board could do an equal or better job forecasting. I doubt we will ever get as much snow as we did in December and January. That was really crazy. Lets just hope this pattern relaxes by the time we get to February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I doubt we will ever get as much snow as we did in December and January. That was really crazy. Lets just hope this pattern relaxes by the time we get to February. realistically you want to see a shift in at least the NAO be mid-February. I am a firm believer that the various indexes tend to balance themselves out. If we maintain a positive NAO through early Spring, that could make for a rainy and cool Spring which would suck more than a snowless winter. I am somewhat encouraged by the latest GEFS ensemble runs which have been showing a western ridge towards the end of the long range, but even then the pattern looks dry and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 People are worrying way too much about the long range. We have 2 threats in the next 5 days and people are worried about long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 JB is at again He said in his latest video that Feb and March could be like last Dec and Jan. He said the reason for his thinking is because of the ridging that is going to develop in Alaska and a Greenland block that will develop. Normally I don't look at JB's forecasts much but this has to be one of the most obvious exaggerations I've seen for this winter... even worse than the mid January "pattern flip" calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 People are worrying way too much about the long range. We have 2 threats in the next 5 days and people are worried about long range. absolutely. with all this emphasis on a long range pattern change to pattern like last winter a system these next five days could deliver some snowfall for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 People are worrying way too much about the long range. We have 2 threats in the next 5 days and people are worried about long range. Agree. Just take 1 week at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 People are worrying way too much about the long range. We have 2 threats in the next 5 days and people are worried about long range. some of us have three 1) I'll be sleeping through my light sleet and freezing rain tonight 2) IF we are lucky enough to see flurries out of the clipper, nothing is going to stick. If we get a dusting, it will be gone the next day. 3) The overrunning event has the most promise, but temperatures are marginal and if the high is too strong, subsidence will be a major issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 some of us have three 1) I'll be sleeping through my light sleet and freezing rain tonight 2) IF we are lucky enough to see flurries out of the clipper, nothing is going to stick. If we get a dusting, it will be gone the next day. 3) The overrunning event has the most promise, but temperatures are marginal and if the high is too strong, subsidence will be a major issue. The clipper can easily drop more then modeled. With low thicknesses and decently low 850's, even .10" of precip will drop a coating to 1" for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The clipper can easily drop more then modeled. With low thicknesses and decently low 850's, even .10" of precip will drop a coating to 1" for all of us. As I said, IF we get a dusting, it will be gone the next day. That offshore development (assuming it occurs) is going to dry slot most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 As I said, IF we get a dusting, it will be gone the next day. That offshore development (assuming it occurs) is going to dry slot most of us. Coating to 1" would make 95% of the posters here very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 If you are rooting for the clipper, the 00z NOAGPS would do the trick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The NOAGPS is then on board with the big torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 As I said, IF we get a dusting, it will be gone the next day. That offshore development (assuming it occurs) is going to dry slot most of us. It looks like most of the snow with Thursday's clipper would target places to the west, north and east of NYC with that offshore development, especially in Long Island. Except for the CMC, the other reliable models agree on this. NYC can easily get flurries with the clipper but with this set up it's hard for me to see how it would be more than a dusting at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 NAM would probably bring a period of light snow through the area. Sims are developing a band of precip swinging east and past the mountains. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=01%2F16%2F2012+12UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=sim_radar&pdesc=&model=NAM&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=084&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 It looks like most of the snow with Thursday's clipper would target places to the west, north and east of NYC with that offshore development, especially in Long Island. Except for the CMC, the other reliable models agree on this. NYC can easily get flurries with the clipper but with this set up it's hard for me to see how it would be more than a dusting at best. I would expect the NAM to get a fairly good handle on this event as we get closer. I just don't understand how people can get so excited when at best someone will get an inch. That's not much of a jackpot. I would rather have 60's and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 3 degrees at Westhampton this morning. -27 at saranac lake a balmy 14 IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 NAM would probably bring a period of light snow through the area. Sims are developing a band of precip swinging east and past the mountains. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Looks more like light to moderate snow... looks like the majority of precipitation with that clipper is easily into the 25-30 dbz range, with pockets up to 35 dbz which would be moderate precipitation here, although the NAM usually overdoes precipitation events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I would expect the NAM to get a fairly good handle on this event as we get closer. I just don't understand how people can get so excited when at best someone will get an inch. That's not much of a jackpot. I would rather have 60's and sun. Have you seen any accumulating snow this winter? An inch is like getting a blizzard this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I would expect the NAM to get a fairly good handle on this event as we get closer. I just don't understand how people can get so excited when at best someone will get an inch. That's not much of a jackpot. I would rather have 60's and sun. The ECMWF had a 1-3" snow event where I was in C NJ with this clipper. I would gladly take that and RUN. Definitely better than any 60 degree and sun day in my book for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I would expect the NAM to get a fairly good handle on this event as we get closer. I just don't understand how people can get so excited when at best someone will get an inch. That's not much of a jackpot. I would rather have 60's and sun. The NAM also handled the Saturday flurry event nicely, we'll see if it also gets a good handle on this one once it gets out of its not so good hour 60-84 range. Considering most of us haven't seen more than flurries this winter, even an inch of snow is much better than the nothing we've seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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