earthlight Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Can't complain about this signal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Can't complain about this signal That kind of looks like where the Euro weeklies end up. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/bad-news-for-alaska-into-february/60204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Latest Euro weeklies show a cold and stormy February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Can't complain about this signal The models do seem to signal an end to the torch in the long range. By that point though, is it more likely we enter a new pattern with hopefully some more cold and snow chances, or does the pattern go back to where it is now once again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Despite the torch at the end of the run, the Euro was relatively "active" (relative to this winter) in the medium range...with a little less of an inch of snow on Friday, and then a moderate snow for the interior on the front end of a SWFE at 150 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Every global except the gfs gives the area a 1" type snowfall on Friday and the gfs is not far from giving it also. Let's hope it holds or even get a qpf bump as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 SLK is -17 at 930 pm. awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Every global except the gfs gives the area a 1" type snowfall on Friday and the gfs is not far from giving it also. Let's hope it holds or even get a qpf bump as we approach. For what it's worth, the last 4 GFS runs did slowly trend towards more precipitation in the area. The low pressure stays to our north so it does make sense that only little snow, if any, falls, although at least from today's runs, the possibility is there that we see some snow showers on Thursday noon - Friday morning, with perhaps more than a dusting if we get lucky and the set up finally produces something more than the typical isolated flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 How you going to get any snow with the 540 line going from east central PA across NYC to at 144 to south central NY by 150 hours? Unless you are talking like western PA where any substantial QPF would have fallen by 144 hrs...other wise it would signal interior icing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 taken verbatim, the EC has a three day stretch of highs reaching the mid-50s from days 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ict1523 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I am loving this cold. Shame it isn't colder and that it's very short lived. Stood outside for a few mins this morning sipping on my iced americano, felt so refreshing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 gefs always good for a 384 block that never shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 DGEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 How you going to get any snow with the 540 line going from east central PA across NYC to at 144 to south central NY by 150 hours? Unless you are talking like western PA where any substantial QPF would have fallen by 144 hrs...other wise it would signal interior icing... u can easily have snow with something above 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 u can easily have snow with something above 540 I would think you would want between 534 and 540 thicknesses..Just this past event in the interior region ended up being all rain because the 540 line was to the north of us while the temperatures at the surface were in the 30s. Your 850s also go from being marginal at best to above freezing by 150 and I am talking the ECM..so i do not see how that would work out to a snow event.. And your surface temps are around 35-40 by 150 hrs say around ABE...far interior yes over western PA i could see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GFS is still showing the clipper affecting the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 How you going to get any snow with the 540 line going from east central PA across NYC to at 144 to south central NY by 150 hours? Unless you are talking like western PA where any substantial QPF would have fallen by 144 hrs...other wise it would signal interior icing... Our best shot is Thursday night into Friday (hour 90-102). Let's hope the models bump a little south and bump the qpf a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Our best shot is Thursday night into Friday (hour 90-102). Let's hope the models bump a little south and bump the qpf a little. GFS was trying to redevelop along the coast. Like you said, I want to see the clipper travel further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I would think you would want between 534 and 540 thicknesses..Just this past event in the interior region ended up being all rain because the 540 line was to the north of us while the temperatures at the surface were in the 30s. Obviously you want sub 540dm thicknesses in an ideal situation for snow. But every event is different and you can get snow with "unsupportive thicknesses". In this situation the Euro is showing a very quick hit of snow around 150-156 hours (assuming that's the event you're talking about)...away from the coast and the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 0z GGEM gives us a little precip with the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Obviously you want sub 540dm thicknesses in an ideal situation for snow. But every event is different and you can get snow with "unsupportive thicknesses". In this situation the Euro is showing a very quick hit of snow around 150-156 hours (assuming that's the event you're talking about)...away from the coast and the city. I consider myself away from the coast and away from the city obviously because I am not in the NYC area ..but this is what i am looking at in my region... SAT 12Z 21-JAN -1.3 -2.7 1021 67 82 0.01 557 540 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 1.8 1.2 1015 98 100 0.32 556 544 SUN 00Z 22-JAN 2.7 1.4 1014 97 77 0.35 559 547 First is 2 meter and 2nd is the 850... So i would consider myself interior and i do not really see that as being snow...especially when by 150 the 540 line verbatim is in south central NY... Maybe i am wrong but i would think it would be more potential for ice or just cold rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 8.6*/2* up this way... Nice & chilly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 00Z Euro shows an inch or two of snow on Saturday, especially west of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Euro is a big hit for Ciudad Juarez at 216 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 00Z Euro shows an inch or two of snow on Saturday, especially west of NYC. Correct...looks like a 1-3" inch snowfall northwest of Trenton into NYC and Western LI on the wunderground weenie maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 The potential Saturday event has panned out so far way closer to the GFS than the Euro, remember the Euro was very warm and north with that system a few days ago and has trended towards the GFS. If anything the Euro is better because the positioning of the high. That event has a chance with the high to the north if we can get more overrunning precip, the models will normally never fully graps how much moisture is squeezed out in these systems til late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 A supported solution of 1-3 inches of snowfall for the first time this winter and possibly to be realized as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 0z GGEM gives us a little precip with the clipper. don't you get tired of posting about clippers that never verify? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 don't you get tired of posting about clippers that never verify? Bill Evans now has snow in the forecast for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 because of the clipper or the low that will pass to our south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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