MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Time to look back at old snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Anyone notice that it's 17 degrees outside? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Euro weeklies vs Euro monthlies. My bet is on the monthlies because it has been so warm and the pattern doesn't look like it's going to change anytime soon. Can it change in February? Sure but I don't see anything favorable in the mid to long range as of yet. Anyone notice that it's 17 degrees outside? It was 14 here this morning. Right now, it's 18. I guess I am the only one awake in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Those highs won't likely verify over SE Canada, with the PV in NW Canada. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 sun still feels warm, even at 18 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well at least we can get a colder than progged day - temps in the upper 10s for most right now. Will end up having afternoon highs in the low/mid 20s, whereas MOS had around 30F a few days ago. New England probably stays in the 10s. Tonight could be colder for suburbia w/ the sfc ridge overhead. I'm at 20F, my high was 26F at 1am, and that will likely be the high for the day. Unfortunately skewing our departure warmer due to those midnight highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 sun still feels warm, even at 18 degrees. Just a reminder to everyone. Use a sunscreen to prevent skin cancer when your exposed to the sun for long periods of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 It's too cold out for me today. Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well at least we can get a colder than progged day - temps in the upper 10s for most right now. Will end up having afternoon highs in the low/mid 20s, whereas MOS had around 30F a few days ago. New England probably stays in the 10s. Tonight could be colder for suburbia w/ the sfc ridge overhead. I'm at 20F, my high was 26F at 1am, and that will likely be the high for the day. Unfortunately skewing our departure warmer due to those midnight highs. It's the same thing that happened with that weekend back in December when highs were expected to be in the mid-upper 30s but only got to about 28-30 degrees. The models are constantly trending colder along with the MOS guidance for today, with the NAM and GFS only showing highs near 18-24 degrees for the area. With temperatures still stuck in the 10s, it is reasonable how temperatures end up in that range for highs today across most of the area. 12z NAM highs for today: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Well at least we can get a colder than progged day - temps in the upper 10s for most right now. Will end up having afternoon highs in the low/mid 20s, whereas MOS had around 30F a few days ago. New England probably stays in the 10s. Tonight could be colder for suburbia w/ the sfc ridge overhead. I'm at 20F, my high was 26F at 1am, and that will likely be the high for the day. Unfortunately skewing our departure warmer due to those midnight highs. We've been doing that with the last several cold shots. We seen our highs early in the morning or late in the evening. But I think the cold duration, also matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 sun still feels warm, even at 18 degrees. No it doesn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 GFS gets cold again at the end of the run. I really hope the Euro weeklies verify. Joe Bastardi's winter preview back in September. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HEFsdFtMqao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Wow-JB busts twice in the same video...what a rough 6 months for good ol JB-at least he has struck a concillatory tone in his posts of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Wow-JB busts twice in the same video...what a rough 6 months for good ol JB-at least he has struck a concillatory tone in his posts of late. Big fail on December for him. He did predict the warm temps for mid to end of January in that video. Lets see if he will be right with a big storm in February for the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Lets hope for this in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I wouldn't be shocked to see our biggest snowstorm come in February or even March. I mean really, how long is this pattern going to last? The NAO and AO have been positive since September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Big fail on December for him. He did predict the warm temps for mid to end of January in that video. Lets see if he will be right with a big storm in February for the east. He alos tough winter for Chicago and same amount of snow as last year in the East but through smaller storms---LOL. Severe snowfall total bust coming up until there's a miracle in the works for DCA-BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I wouldn't be shocked to see our biggest snowstorm come in February or even March. I mean really, how long is this pattern going to last? The NAO and AO have been positive since September. The 01-02 pattern never broke down into April-warm, dry and snowless from Mid January on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 FWIW, the GFS shows the clipper bringing widespread snows to the Northeast on Thu night-Fri, including Long Island, but of course it just has to perfectly fit a dry slot right over NJ and NYC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 12z GEFS NAO chart FWIW, the GFS shows the clipper bringing widespread snows to the Northeast on Thu night-Fri, including Long Island, but of course it just has to perfectly fit a dry slot right over NJ and NYC: Ensembles have a little more precip for the NYC area. The clipper goes to the north of the city but it still gets really cold in the city. The GGEM also has the clipper affecting the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I wouldn't be shocked to see our biggest snowstorm come in February or even March. I mean really, how long is this pattern going to last? The NAO and AO have been positive since September. and it would even be nice to get a surprise inch on either this Tuesday or Thursday. Its not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 12z GEFS NAO chart Ensembles have a little more precip for the NYC area. The clipper goes to the north of the city but it still gets really cold in the city. The GGEM also has the clipper affecting the area. Hopefully, we both get some from that clipper. I have had a trace of snow since October. There's still a strong high for that day 10 storm, so we'll follow that. Feb. looks like it could start decently according to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 12z GEFS NAO chart Ensembles have a little more precip for the NYC area. The clipper goes to the north of the city but it still gets really cold in the city. The GGEM also has the clipper affecting the area. This Map has showd a Neg NAO in the 10-15 range all winter-VERIFICATION: ++++++++ Postive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Hopefully, we both get some from that clipper. I have had a trace of snow since October. There's still a strong high for that day 10 storm, so we'll follow that. Feb. looks like it could start decently according to the GFS. Not on the recent run. The low goes to the west of the City so it doesn't cool down as much as it did on previous runs. Still have to watch where this storm tracks and the high pressure up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 This Map has showd a Neg NAO in the 10-15 range all winter-VERIFICATION: ++++++++ Postive Sadly it's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Not on the recent run. The low goes to the west of the City so it doesn't cool down as much as it did on previous runs. Still have to watch where this storm tracks and the high pressure up north. I meant Feb. could start decently - the day 10 storm is rain, but it's still worth watching. This time the high might have been too east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Not on the recent run. The low goes to the west of the City so it doesn't cool down as much as it did on previous runs. Still have to watch where this storm tracks and the high pressure up north. True. But as people are saying, the longer this goes, there's a better chance of a flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I meant Feb. could start decently - the day 10 storm is rain, but it's still worth watching. This time the high might have been too east? Yes it is on that run. Normall you want the high to stay put near Quebec or just slightly east of that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I think upper single digits are possible tonight for much of suburbia NJ, with low/mid single digits in the coldest valleys of NW NJ. Ideal radiational cooling set-up most of the night with fairly stable/slowly rising 850s. Urban zones won't make it colder than last night, NYC probably mid-upper 10s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 via the text message suggestion of ray/40-70 benchmark...it is time to start building up some good karma. so, less downer "winter sucks" posts in this banter thread. pick it up people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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