MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 GFS says what blowtorch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 GFS says what blowtorch? It is better in the long range for the first time in a few days. Still warm mid-range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 It is better in the long range for the first time in a few days. Still warm mid-range. Yes but not for a prolonged period of time. The GFS is colder than previous runs in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Yes but not for a prolonged period of time. The GFS is colder than previous runs in the long range. I hope that storm around 240 hrs. trends better. You'd think it would with a high that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I hope that storm around 240 hrs. trends better. You'd think it would with a high that strong. The low placement is in a good spot. The high has to be a little more east though. I like the strength of the high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 And there goes the torch on the gfs. Complete flip in the fantasy range of day 9-15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I hope that storm around 240 hrs. trends better. You'd think it would with a high that strong. Iif it trends anyway, would probably be towards an ice storm. That high is a little too west but anymore east and it would be ice, like the 18z gfs had. At least right after that storm, the mega torch is now gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 And there goes the torch on the gfs. Complete flip in the fantasy range of day 9-15. That was an interesting run to watch in the later period -- 850mb temps only slightly below 0c, yet surface temps near freezing due to the 1030-40mb highs running around. As I said in a post before, if the intensity of those sfc highs in sern Canada come close to verifying, low level cold will be much more pronounced as we near the time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 That was an interesting run to watch in the later period -- 850mb temps only slightly below 0c, yet surface temps near freezing due to the 1030-40mb highs running around. As I said in a post before, if the intensity of those sfc highs in sern Canada come close to verifying, low level cold will be much more pronounced as we near the time frame. To get a string of several days in the 50's and 60's in this area in mid January would be quite a feat from a climatological perspective... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Iif it trends anyway, would probably be towards an ice storm. That high is a little too west but anymore east and it would be ice, like the 18z gfs had. At least right after that storm, the mega torch is now gone. NYC doesn't even hit 50, though keep in mind that the 06Z and 18Z runs in the long range include images at 18Z, when surface temps are near their peak, causing those runs to seem a bit warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 NYC doesn't even hit 50. JFK highest temp on the GFS is 49. Torch fail. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=Kjfk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 how much snow does the 00z gfs give nyc from hrs 0-384? the pattern is and will remain horrible for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 how much snow does the 00z gfs give nyc from hrs 0-384? the pattern is and will remain horrible for snow A trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 A trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 As long as you do not look at the GFS ensemble means you are perfectly fine (LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Central Park record highs for January 23rd and 24th, 63 and 68 degrees respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 You cold always take a drive up to Saranac Lake which had a balmy high of 4 today and is sitting at 9 below. Its amazing how cold the Adirondacks are. I was actually looking forward to the record torch (like others have said if its going to be mild it might as well be record breaking so you can get out and enjoy it.). Looks like we are in for really boring weather... Mild but not too mild and quite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 on the 00z ECM temperatures are as follows at 162 hrs..40-55 from the poconos to SE NY along the coast of SNE and South into MD and south..186 hrs they are in the 30s from NNY north and the 40s south at 210 the only area that is in the 30s is NW Maine ..the rest of the area is 40-60 from a NE to SW basis with the 60 readings into SW PA..at 234 temperatures in a small portion of Maine are 35-40 and then outside that area from the NE to SW are temperatures of 40-65 with the 65 reading in SW PA.. It appears that what is keeping these temperatures from out right baking the region at the surface is cloud cover and the storms that are going thru the region...so that could be the one saving grace from really torching at the surface but the moral of the story still remains the same as we are going to after the next transient shot of colder air go into a sustained period of above normal temperatures.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Nice signal on the Euro for a potential severe weather event in the South-Central US around the 24th of the month. Significant shortwave trough and relatively impressive moisture return. The 12z Euro had 60 F dew points as far north as Central OK/Central AR latitude with a sub 996mb surface low over the Central Plains ejecting eastward. Details are yet to be determined, but to see such a signal with 564dm thicknesses modeled well north of the Gulf Coast is certainly something that catches my eye in mid January. Winter season severe weather events can be incredibly complicated, and this is incredibly far away. But a decent signal nevertheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 That was an interesting run to watch in the later period -- 850mb temps only slightly below 0c, yet surface temps near freezing due to the 1030-40mb highs running around. As I said in a post before, if the intensity of those sfc highs in sern Canada come close to verifying, low level cold will be much more pronounced as we near the time frame. Those highs won't likely verify over SE Canada, with the PV in NW Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 A little chilly out this morning, don't you agree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 where is my clipper AG3 and metfan promised me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 where is my clipper AG3 and metfan promised me? This is it. Did they also promised that it would over achieve and surprise us with a solid 1-3"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 There has yet to be a good clipper anywhere this season, why start now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Beautiful morning it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Beautiful morning it is. Whats your temp? I can't make it out on this cluttered map! Thanks & Happy New Year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Whats your temp? I can't make it out on this cluttered map! 15 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 The Euro monthlies are out and it shows no pattern change at all for February and March. It shows warmers than average temps for a lot of the U.S with transient shots of cold air ( just like the pattern that we are in now ). This sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 NAO has been positive for 3-4 months already. Are you kidding me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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