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Jan 2012 Banter Thread


LongBeachSurfFreak

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if we dont get any big volcanic eruptions this year, next winter will be like this.

Very unlikely, we'll likely be totally neutral ENSO next winter and its doubtful we'd see a massive stratospheric cooling again that totally screwed us during the fall, the result of that event likely caused the deepening snow pack over AK and Sibera and is now resulting in the relative high height anomalies wanting to setup there the rest of the winter.

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The NWS Zone forecast does mention the word snow a few times for the upcoming week. This is a good thing.

NYZ072-151000-

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-

401 PM EST SAT JAN 14 2012

.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO

15 MPH.

.SUNDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO

15 MPH.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO

10 MPH.

.MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH...BECOMING SOUTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS

UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.

.MONDAY NIGHT...CLOUDY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE

EVENING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. NOT AS COOL WITH

LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF

PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...CLOUDY WITH A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHS IN THE

UPPER 40S.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING.

LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.

.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY AND BREEZY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY

CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

.FRIDAY...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS

IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OF SNOW 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE

MORNING...THEN A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE LOWER

50S. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 30 PERCENT.

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Upton

Monday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow before midnight, then a chance of rain. Cloudy, with a low around 37. Southwest wind between 13 and 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Brooklyn&state=NY&site=OKX&lat=40.6498&lon=-73.9488

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Very unlikely, we'll likely be totally neutral ENSO next winter and its doubtful we'd see a massive stratospheric cooling again that totally screwed us during the fall, the result of that event likely caused the deepening snow pack over AK and Sibera and is now resulting in the relative high height anomalies wanting to setup there the rest of the winter.

Do you still think that we will get an El Nino winter by 2013-2014?

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Very unlikely, we'll likely be totally neutral ENSO next winter and its doubtful we'd see a massive stratospheric cooling again that totally screwed us during the fall, the result of that event likely caused the deepening snow pack over AK and Sibera and is now resulting in the relative high height anomalies wanting to setup there the rest of the winter.

if anything, 3rd year nino is more likely than neutral

if we get nino forget it, we could really torch if the polar jet is stuck in canada, ala 95

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if anything, 3rd year nino is more likely than neutral

if we get nino forget it, we could really torch if the polar jet is stuck in canada, ala 95

That was largely due to the NAO, we're likely into a different decadal NAO phase now and also PDO. Ninos will behave differently the next 20-25 years and have been behaving differently in general the last decade.

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