earthlight Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 actually there is no agreement at all, hence the 5+ spread over the entire northern 1/3 of the us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Come to think of it, you are right. The Euro is a better model as a result of American technological decline. Uhh...Bull****. Because one weather model may or may not be more accurate america is in tech decline? Not the place for it, but ill say i hate when people argue this. What technological advances have the japanese come up w lately? The chinese? the Europeans? Anybody? Americans - all the best military tech (drones, jamming of iranian nuclear sites), commercial tech (Iphone, Ipad, Google, Facebook, Twitter), Social/Media - (movies, music, etc), Biotech - nearly all top med schools, research centers, pharmas, etc are in the US. Done. We are still the best at the moment with regards to military technology, I will give you that. My main argument is the continued budget cuts from congress in meteorlogical research and studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The Euro is a very good model when you don't have a -PNA, any sort of -PNA type deal and it can fall into its usual mode of over digging things out west for too long. I think in a +PNA the Euro is the best model by leaps and bounds, -PNA and it can really struggle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 actually there is no agreement at all, hence the 5+ spread over the entire northern 1/3 of the us. What is it that you are looking at? The mean freezing line is well south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Just one day this winter, I want a storm with enough snow to completely cover grass and enough to shovel. Is that too much to freakin' ask for? That's what you get for living on Long Island. Long Island does well with coastals that have great setups in place out ahead of them, ala Boxing Day. Out here in NJ I got my satisfying 8" in October. I could care less if it snowed another flake the rest of the winter if we can get historical warmth instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Speak for yourself. I got 5" of snow in October and all it did was knock out my power and damage my trees. I'll take my snow in January and February That's what you get for living on Long Island. Long Island does well with coastals that have great setups in place out ahead of them, ala Boxing Day. Out here in NJ I got my satisfying 8" in October. I could care less if it snowed another flake the rest of the winter if we can get historical warmth instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's amusing to read how some folks here believe that they are owed something. If anything, we are the ones that need to payback for the incredible last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Speak for yourself. I got 5" of snow in October and all it did was knock out my power and damage my trees. I'll take my snow in January and February I am speaking for myself, had no power for two days and no cable for a week, and I was one of the lucky ones. The point is, Long Island is not a traditionally great location for snow. They are almost always rain in marginal setups when the interior is snowing and big noreasters don't usually come around too often, the last two years have been quite the exception to the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The Euro is a very good model when you don't have a -PNA, any sort of -PNA type deal and it can fall into its usual mode of over digging things out west for too long. I think in a +PNA the Euro is the best model by leaps and bounds, -PNA and it can really struggle. Which is also why, at least IMO, the Euro seems to perform better than the GFS in El Nino years, and the GFS better than the Euro in La Nina years. This is WRT the 5-6+ day period. I can clearly remember the Euro locking onto sern stream waves which ended up as snowstorms a good 5-6 days in advance. Northern stream is much more difficult for modelling to handle in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I am speaking for myself, had no power for two days and no cable for a week, and I was one of the lucky ones. The point is, Long Island is not a traditionally great location for snow. They are almost always rain in marginal setups when the interior is snowing and big noreasters don't usually come around too often, the last two years have been quite the exception to the norm. LI buried everyone west of Queens in 2008-2009. All of LI got 30"-40" of snow and Eastern LI got 45"+ of snow. No coastals really that year. The north shore of LI extends further and further north as you head east and the area of Oyster Bay to Port Jefferson averages 30" to 32" of snow a year. Parts of the North Shore of LI were close to 100" in the winter of 95-96 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Heavy flurries on the gold coast of CT right now, I may try to catch one and freeze it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 just saw my first steady snow since october. I can hope NYC records a trace of snow for today. So far, I've only seen snow flurries in Queens, New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I am speaking for myself, had no power for two days and no cable for a week, and I was one of the lucky ones. The point is, Long Island is not a traditionally great location for snow. They are almost always rain in marginal setups when the interior is snowing and big noreasters don't usually come around too often, the last two years have been quite the exception to the norm. Eh....depends what you mean by marginal...i think william or somebody posted their snow totals since 2000...pretty sure upton was killing it...or is 12 years not enough of a sample size either? Long island jackpots sometimes and gets screwed sometimes. Id say maybe 15-20% of snowfalls in nw burbs screw the island, but the vast majority nail the island as well.. Arent there any floods to track?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It's amusing to read how some folks here believe that they are owed something. If anything, we are the ones that need to payback for the incredible last two years. I still want payback for have 3 of the worst decades for snow since records have been kept in recent memory (70-00.) So the way I see it we have another 20 years where the vast majority of winters should be awesome. That's if you believe the being "overdue" crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I can hope NYC records a trace of snow for today. So far, I've only seen snow flurries in Queens, New York. Considering just about everyone has seen a snowflake, Central Park should have a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 GFS has been better than the Euro this winter. For some reason , the GFS does well in la Nina winters . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 LI buried everyone west of Queens in 2008-2009. All of LI got 30"-40" of snow and Eastern LI got 45"+ of snow. No coastals really that year. It can happen, sometimes you can get a great anomalous pattern that keeps reloading and sometimes you get a crappy pattern that keeps reloading such as now. Everyone likes to pick out the extremes but you really need to look at the overall pattern over a long period of time. For example 30"+ winters are not that unusual for Central Park but I would bet the averages are significantly lower the further east you travel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Also, while i think 15-20% interior snow screws LI, 5-10% snow screws interior and nails long island, so in the end of the day, maybe a 10-15% less snow on the island...definitely not true that long island isnt good for snow...The twin forks is a different story though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Eh....depends what you mean by marginal...i think william or somebody posted their snow totals since 2000...pretty sure upton was killing it...or is 12 years not enough of a sample size either? Long island jackpots sometimes and gets screwed sometimes. Id say maybe 15-20% of snowfalls in nw burbs screw the island, but the vast majority nail the island as well.. Arent there any floods to track?? Since 1995-1996, northshorwx's records in Smithtown, LI show he has a 36" average. Since 2000-2001, the average snowfall is 40". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It can happen, sometimes you can get a great anomalous pattern that keeps reloading and sometimes you get a crappy pattern that keeps reloading such as now. Everyone likes to pick out the extremes but you really need to look at the overall pattern over a long period of time. For example 30"+ winters are not that unusual for Central Park but I would bet the averages are significantly lower the further east you travel. So incorrect bro. The north shore of LI, averages more snow then NYC. By 2"-4". There is slight elevation in some parts along with the island sticking out NE, so it has more lattitude as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Eh....depends what you mean by marginal...i think william or somebody posted their snow totals since 2000...pretty sure upton was killing it...or is 12 years not enough of a sample size either? Long island jackpots sometimes and gets screwed sometimes. Id say maybe 15-20% of snowfalls in nw burbs screw the island, but the vast majority nail the island as well.. Arent there any floods to track?? Think of it this way, if its snowing on Long Island its most definitly snowing in the NW burbs or at least cold enough to snow. There are a few rare occasions where a storm is supressed far enough south that the Island gets into the snow and mostly everyone else misses out, but I don't recall any recent scenarios where the Island had a big event and NJ did very poor. 100 years or so a good sample size. I personally like to look at 1970 to present. Technology has come a long way since then and we are more accurate at measuring snow now. Oh and love the flood comment, Its nice to see I hit a nerve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Considering just about everyone has seen a snowflake, Central Park should have a trace. The NWS mentioned that they could not rule out isolated snow flurries today in their technical discussion but left the forecast dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This map kind of says it all. CPC Day 8-14 temperature outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This map kind of says it all. CPC Day 8-14 temperature outlook. Love it, sorry kids no snow days this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Don't believe everything you read . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Don't believe everything you read . Or see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Looking at the Day 10 ECMWF, with a southwest wind surface and aloft with 850 mb temperatures of 10oC, it is interesting to think how warm Washington, DC could get around January 23rd if it is close to being correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Anxiously awaiting the 18z goofus. Shall we take bets on whether or not the system will be there at 192? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Looking at the Day 10 ECMWF, with a southwest wind surface and aloft with 850 mb temperatures of 10oC, it is interesting to think how warm Washington, DC could get around January 23rd if it is close to being correct. Should look like May around there with all the trees blooming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Anxiously awaiting the 18z goofus. Shall we take bets on whether or not the system will be there at 192? Who cares. It's fantasy range. Interest should be on the clipper in mid-range, day 5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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