TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That's not a cuttoff low that I'm looking at At 252 it diggs all the way to the gulf coast, at 264 the trough popps and we go negative, low closses off over GA and then moves up the coast, and then off the Delmarva passing just to our east. I don't know how to read the temperature profiles too well because of the small scale but it would be one hell of a noreaster, rain or snow. In any case, its fantasy land but cool to look at. (member row two second one from the left) sorry dude, still not there. Your trough is negative way too quickly and there is no confluence/blocking to the north to hold any cold air in. Rule of thumb, you see that green line? if its north of the area, not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Snow flurries in Flushing, New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z euro says no to anything in the day 5-9 timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 euro at 192 and on looks like the cmc, unmitigated disaster, nothing like the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Heck of a way to get a snow storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The CMC and the GFS have both had there fair share of fantasy snowstorms this winter that haven't verified. The EC has maintained its ugliness and has verified. The GFS has more support right now from the other global models than the EC, but I think its unfair to say one particular solution should carry more weight at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The CMC and the GFS have both had there fair share of fantasy snowstorms this winter that haven't verified. The ECMWF for the most part has maintained its ugliness and has verified. The GFS has more support right now from the other global models than the EC, but I think its unfair to say one particular solution should carry more weight at this time. Disagree. The euro has had at least 3-4 snowstorms in the day 6-9 range. And also a 1"-2" event INSIDE of 60 hours, that verified in the DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Disagree. The euro has had at least 3-4 snowstorms in the day 6-9 range. And also a 1"-2" event INSIDE of 60 hours, that verified in the DC area. I don't concern myself with clippers or real small events. I'm looking for a big overrunning event and or coastal. The small stuff irritates me. I'd rather have a torch and bust out the shorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 confirm snow flurries here in central nassau. Freakin cold out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Here it is...KJFK 13 12:51 W 38 G 48 10.00 Light Snow and Windy BKN043 33 16 49 33 49% 29.50 998.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The GFS storm is on the Euro, its just very delayed. High pressure is in good position at hr 216. Our system is still way west at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 just saw my first steady snow since october. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If the Euro is right, some places in the Plains will break their all time record highs...................for FEBRUARY!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Everyone is bowing down to the Euro lol. Who knows, the gfs might be right with the storm. Still a week to go. Trials, that's a nice setup on the gfs with the first and second storm . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If the Euro is right, some places in the Plains will break their all time record highs...................for FEBRUARY!!!! I was just about to say, this would be historic warmth, except for maybe the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Just had passing flurries. I hope the Euro burns in hell. No need for warm weather in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Everyone is bowing down to the Euro lol. Who knows, the gfs might be right with the storm. Still a week to go. Trials, that's a nice setup on the gfs with the first and second storm . Euro is not a god model so what is says for a few runs is no guarantee at all and the euro has had its share of major screw-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If the GFS depiction of events were to verify, I can almost guarantee the surface low tracks would be further south and sfc temperatures also colder, given 1030mb highs propagating W-E near the US/Canadian border. We're in mid January now - 1030 highs are very efficient at locking CAD in and preventing rain changeovers assuming the high doesn't move east out to sea. Note I didn't say sleet or freezing rain, as this pattern does seem to promote that opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Euro is not a god model so what is says for a few runs is no guarantee at all and the euro has had its share of major screw-ups. Ummmm... the Euro still has the highest verification scores. Every model performs differently in different scenarios. Right now I would take a blend of the Euro, GFS and GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If the GFS depiction of events were to verify, I can almost guarantee the surface low tracks would be further south and sfc temperatures also colder, given 1030mb highs propagating W-E near the US/Canadian border. We're in mid January now - 1030 highs are very efficient at locking CAD in and preventing rain changeovers assuming the high doesn't move east out to sea. Note I didn't say sleet or freezing rain, as this pattern does seem to promote that opportunity. That being said, if the Euro depiction of events were to verify, well, obviously we wouldn't be talking snow vs freezing rain, we'd be talking 50 versus 60 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 If the GFS depiction of events were to verify, I can almost guarantee the surface low tracks would be further south and sfc temperatures also colder, given 1030mb highs propagating W-E near the US/Canadian border. We're in mid January now - 1030 highs are very efficient at locking CAD in and preventing rain changeovers assuming the high doesn't move east out to sea. Note I didn't say sleet or freezing rain, as this pattern does seem to promote that opportunity. But that is exactly what should happen, the HP should slide east because you have a -pna, +NAO, and vortex over central canada, it screams warmer, not colder, ala the euro. Euro has the same strength HP and the entire northeast is torched because of the SW flow. In fact, at 192 hours, the 0C 850 line is North of Maine on the euro, mid january and all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Ummmm... the Euro still has the highest verification scores. Every model performs differently in different scenarios. Right now I would take a blend of the Euro, GFS and GGEM. But everybody acts like what the Euro says goes. It's long range verification is still not better than other long range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 But everybody acts like what the Euro says goes. It's long range verification is still not better than other long range models. It has the best scores in the medium to long range. As you get closer in time, the higher resolution models tend to score better. Overall I believe the SREF has the highest short range scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It has the best scores in the medium to long range. As you get closer in time, the higher resolution models tend to score better. Overall I believe the SREF has the highest short range scores. All the models past day 6 have similar scores. Euro's best range is hour 0 to 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 It has the best scores in the medium to long range. As you get closer in time, the higher resolution models tend to score better. Overall I believe the SREF has the highest short range scores. Yea not quite sure where you have been the past 2 months. The Euro has consistently shown fantasy storms this winter and I believe (correct me if i am wrong) a huge fantasy torch in late decemberish that busted big time as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yea not quite sure where you have been the past 2 months. The Euro has consistently shown fantasy storms this winter and I believe (correct me if i am wrong) a huge fantasy torch in late decemberish that busted big time as well... The euro has had at least 3-4 big time snow storms in the day 6-8 range this winter. Perhaps more. The late December storm, showed as a snowstorm for 4 runs in a row, all inside of 180 hours. Like all models, the euro is pretty useless, outside of day 5. Ensembles are a little better in the mid to long range, but not much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yea not quite sure where you have been the past 2 months. The Euro has consistently shown fantasy storms this winter and I believe (correct me if i am wrong) a huge fantasy torch in late decemberish that busted big time as well... That's such a small sample in time though. Every single model has its blunders. One has to look at the overall percentages. In come cases the verification scores can be quite low, but still above average in comparison to other global models. The Euro doesn't seem to suffer from the same syndrom that tends to plauge the GFS. The GFS tends to catch onto a big event early, and then loose it as time progresses only to bring it back a few days prior. The Euro has a slight advantage because of the higher resolution, that and America seems to be falling further and further behind in the technological world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z GEFS is in fairly good agreement on a cold setup before any type of event moves in around hr 192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That's such a small sample in time though. Every single model has its blunders. One has to look at the overall percentages. In come cases the verification scores can be quite low, but still above average in comparison to other global models. The Euro doesn't seem to suffer from the same syndrom that tends to plauge the GFS. The GFS tends to catch onto a big event early, and then loose it as time progresses only to bring it back a few days prior. The Euro has a slight advantage because of the higher resolution, that and America seems to be falling further and further behind in the technological world. Come to think of it, you are right. The Euro is a better model as a result of American technological decline. Uhh...Bull****. Because one weather model may or may not be more accurate america is in tech decline? Not the place for it, but ill say i hate when people argue this. What technological advances have the japanese come up w lately? The chinese? the Europeans? Anybody? Americans - all the best military tech (drones, jamming of iranian nuclear sites), commercial tech (Iphone, Ipad, Google, Facebook, Twitter), Social/Media - (movies, music, etc), Biotech - nearly all top med schools, research centers, pharmas, etc are in the US. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I don't concern myself with clippers or real small events. I'm looking for a big overrunning event and or coastal. The small stuff irritates me. I'd rather have a torch and bust out the shorts. Just one day this winter, I want a storm with enough snow to completely cover grass and enough to shovel. Is that too much to freakin' ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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