Analog96 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Except I.don't see any events when that setup is in place. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR HR 204 on the GFS. Sfc temp has risen to 24, 850 temp is -3 and thickness is 538. 0.25" has fallen. Next? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 KNYC 131551Z AUTO 26011G24KT 230V310 10SM BKN030 OVC039 02/M03 A2944 RMK AO2 PK WND 27028/1541 UPB14E16SNB16E25 SLP962 P0000 T00171033 It snowed for 9 minutes, is that our TRACE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR HR 204 on the GFS. Sfc temp has risen to 24, 850 temp is -3 and thickness is 538. 0.25" has fallen. Next? Lol yeah gfs at 192. Nuff said. That's got rainer written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Finally some flurries here. First flakes since October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Lol yeah gfs at 192. Nuff said. That's got rainer written all over it. Ok, so basically when we're supposed to be interpreting what the model says, you invented a different solution to suit your needs. When I showed you the exact printout that is showing several inches of snow, you look the other way, pretend it doesn't exist, and then realize it does exist, and just change the solution because you don't agree with it. That's real sound meteorological reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This has to be watched, 1030 high in good position and good ridiging over the western Atlantic High is racing east and when the brunt of that would come, it would likely be rain or some sloppy mix. Nothing locking in that high or any cold-it would be quickly scoured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I have been on the torch bandwaggon lately but that event around 192 needs attention until its gone by this time tommorrow. Temps are quite cold before the system comes in. If nothing else, could be an icey situation. 850 temps are -10 at hr 186 for just about everyone. Temps only begin to moderate above freezing around 210-216 after most of the precip has fallen. Not a great setup, but too good to totally dismiss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I have been on the torch bandwaggon lately but that event around 192 needs attention until its gone by this time tommorrow. Temps are quite cold before the system comes in. If nothing else, could be an icey situation. 850 temps are -10 at hr 186 for just about everyone. Temps only begin to moderate above freezing around 210-216 after most of the precip has fallen. Not a great setup, but too good to totally dismiss. It's a 3-6" snow event, followed by some light icing if you take this run verbatim. Then we torch and it all melts in a few hours. But at least it can get wintry for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 KNYC 131551Z AUTO 26011G24KT 230V310 10SM BKN030 OVC039 02/M03 A2944 RMK AO2 PK WND 27028/1541 UPB14E16SNB16E25 SLP962 P0000 T00171033 It snowed for 9 minutes, is that our TRACE? If there is one flake, it is a trace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I have been on the torch bandwaggon lately but that event around 192 needs attention until its gone by this time tommorrow. Temps are quite cold before the system comes in. If nothing else, could be an icey situation. 850 temps are -10 at hr 186 for just about everyone. Temps only begin to moderate above freezing around 210-216 after most of the precip has fallen. Not a great setup, but too good to totally dismiss. I think you're looking too far ahead. There is another threat on day 5-6, with a clipper type storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 High is racing east and when the brunt of that would come, it would likely be rain or some sloppy mix. Nothing locking in that high or any cold-it would be quickly scoured out. what are you looking at, that high barely moves from hrs 171-200. Even at 204 as the heart of the storm approaches its getting pushed east but its still in fairly good position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12 Z GGEM @ 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Today is the 1st day it feels like winter. Have another snow shower passing through right now and with the wind, feels very cold. So nice to feel this... January 3-4 didn't feel like winter to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 January 3-4 didn't feel like winter to you? No. Not without snow in the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The system at 192 hours is your classic 3-6 inch snow to rain event, perhaps slightly less snow but those are usually pretty nasty front end hits because of the strong arctic high in place. I mentioned 2/18/00 a few days ago, that looks a bit like it. Obviously details at this point are fuzzy but you sort of want to see the system approach more from the south than the GFS shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I know hour 180 is fantasy range on models and thats why its in the banter thread, but its pretty interesting how every model has something in that timeframe. Even the Nogaps has it now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 the wind today might be the most exciting thing that has happened so far this winter... and the occasional flakes flying is nice to see too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The system at 192 hours is your classic 3-6 inch snow to rain event, perhaps slightly less snow but those are usually pretty nasty front end hits because of the strong arctic high in place. I mentioned 2/18/00 a few days ago, that looks a bit like it. Obviously details at this point are fuzzy but you sort of want to see the system approach more from the south than the GFS shows. Exactly my thinking, and the system is far enough out in advance that the SW energy could trend sharper/stronger. We don't want a supressed mess passing to our south. The 12z GFS ensembles are all over the place. Lots of supressed members and even a few lakes cutters. Everything is on the table. I worry about a front end dump changing over to a moderate ice event in our western zones for this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Ok, so basically when we're supposed to be interpreting what the model says, you invented a different solution to suit your needs. When I showed you the exact printout that is showing several inches of snow, you look the other way, pretend it doesn't exist, and then realize it does exist, and just change the solution because you don't agree with it. That's real sound meteorological reasoning. first of all, this started out as legitimate threats and anything at 192-204 hours cannot be considered legitimate. Secondly, if we just interepret what a model says but don't actually look to see if it is supported by the pattern, then we are practicing modeology, not meteorology. With a SW flow, no blocking, a -pna, and a strong pv over central canada, that has only one way to trend, wetter and warmer, hence my comment its a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Exactly my thinking, and the system is far enough out in advance that the SW energy could trend sharper/stronger. We don't want a supressed mess passing to our south. The 12z GFS ensembles are all over the place. Lots of supressed members and even a few lakes cutters. Everything is on the table. I worry about a front end dump changing over to a moderate ice event in our western zones for this type of setup. Some members are blowing up the 1st vort in the day 5-6 frame and others are focusing on the same one the operational has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12 Z GGEM @ 180 that is a more realistic portrayal of what do expect with that synoptic setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 the wind today might be the most exciting thing that has happened so far this winter... and the occasional flakes flying is nice to see too We have had some decent wind events the last couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 first of all, this started out as legitimate threats and anything at 192-204 hours cannot be considered legitimate. Secondly, if we just interepret what a model says but don't actually look to see if it is supported by the pattern, then we are practicing modeology, not meteorology. With a SW flow, no blocking, a -pna, and a strong pv over central canada, that has only one way to trend, wetter and warmer, hence my comment its a rainer. We can consider this one more legit because its more typical of what we would see in a La Nina or in this pattern, coastals and Nor'easter type storms are the ones right now even at 120 hours we have to be doubtful of, but I've seen the setup before the 12Z GFS shows, even as recently as the February 22, 2008 event and those usually have heavy snows initially because of the high in place. There is one way it can become all rain, if the system wraps up into a massive 990mb low, but right now the 500mb setup the GFS shows argues against that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Not to get too carried away, but one GFS member has a MECS at hr 288 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 We can consider this one more legit because its more typical of what we would see in a La Nina or in this pattern, coastals and Nor'easter type storms are the ones right now even at 120 hours we have to be doubtful of, but I've seen the setup before the 12Z GFS shows, even as recently as the February 22, 2008 event and those usually have heavy snows initially because of the high in place. There is one way it can become all rain, if the system wraps up into a massive 990mb low, but right now the 500mb setup the GFS shows argues against that. Seems like your thoughts are exactly in line with mine! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12z spc wrf gets a decent lakes streamer to NYC tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 We can consider this one more legit because its more typical of what we would see in a La Nina or in this pattern, coastals and Nor'easter type storms are the ones right now even at 120 hours we have to be doubtful of, but I've seen the setup before the 12Z GFS shows, even as recently as the February 22, 2008 event and those usually have heavy snows initially because of the high in place. There is one way it can become all rain, if the system wraps up into a massive 990mb low, but right now the 500mb setup the GFS shows argues against that. strong pv in central candada scream more ampliied cutter type solution. But who cares, it won't look that way in a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Not to get too carried away, but one GFS member has a MECS at hr 288 there are no mecs on that map, unless you like rain. That one member with the cutoff 500 low over us is not a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 there are no mecs on that map, unless you like rain. That one member with the cutoff 500 low over us is not a MECS That's not a cuttoff low that I'm looking at At 252 it diggs all the way to the gulf coast, at 264 the trough popps and we go negative, low closses off over GA and then moves up the coast, and then off the Delmarva passing just to our east. I don't know how to read the temperature profiles too well because of the small scale but it would be one hell of a noreaster, rain or snow. In any case, its fantasy land but cool to look at. (member row two second one from the left) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 12 Z ECM @ 192 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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