TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 +12 850 temps on the 24th in western PA on the 12z gfs, hopefully those work into our area as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 4:41 PM, Snow88 said: Another chance of snow before it warms up. Surface temps are below freezing in the area. I wonder why every run looks good until around that time? At least it's the warm being delayed now. Hopefully denied, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 4:43 PM, mattinpa said: I wonder why every run looks good until around that time? At least it's the warm being delayed now. Hopefully denied, too. Hopefully but I doubt it. There are strong signals on all the models of the warmth coming back to the east after the arctic shot and possible snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 4:45 PM, Snow88 said: Hopefully but I doubt it. There are strong signals on all the models of the warmth coming back to the east after the arctic shot and possible snow event. Maybe it's time there was phantom warmth. We've certainly had a lot of phantom snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Difference this time is that EVERY model and ensemble has a signal for 2 snow chances in the day 5-9 timeframe. Not just a couple fantasy runs of euro or gfs. Not saying it will happen, but for now we have 2 events to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Guaruntee if that didn't truncate it would have looked much better. Looked beautiful at 192. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Warmth still there but moderates at the end of this run. At this point, I'm just looking at those two chances and that would hold us until the warmth would leave (IF it does). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 4:53 PM, mattinpa said: Warmth still there but moderates at the end of this run. At this point, I'm just looking at those two chances and that would hold us until the warmth would leave (IF it does). It gets colder again at the end of the run. All I care about right now is the 2 possible events next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 This has to be watched, 1030 high in good position and good ridiging over the western Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 ^^^ The first wave after the lakes cutter has to be watched first. Then we can worry about that after =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Snow showers making its way towards NYC http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york/weather-radar?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 4:59 PM, Snow88 said: Snow showers making its way towards NYC http://www.accuweath...radar?play=true Not going to make it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I will believe the pattern change until it really comes. The models have been flip flopping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 5:01 PM, psv88 said: Not going to make it. I think it will. Here is the Intellicast radar. http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=USCT0094&weather=hdRadarSmoothPaletteA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 5:01 PM, psv88 said: Not going to make it. I've had flurries all morning here in Bayside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 5:04 PM, ag3 said: I've has flurries all morning here in Bayside. pics or it didn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Still flurrying in New Brunswick, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Definetely looks like popcorn snow showers will affect the NYC region over the next hour or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 5:13 PM, ag3 said: Definetely looks like popcorn snow showers will affect the NYC region over the next hour or 2. are you saying popcorn will fall with the snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 4:55 PM, Snow88 said: It gets colder again at the end of the run. All I care about right now is the 2 possible events next week. Best approach right now. Look for small victories in the overall lousy pattern. Still not out of the question imo to pull a few smaller events out of this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 snow showers off and on here in clifton for the past two hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 people seeing two events are on something. There is a rainer, and then nothing, then moderation and another rainer followed by mega torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Nada here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 5:28 PM, TheTrials said: people seeing two events are on something. There is a rainer, and then nothing, then moderation and another rainer followed by mega torch. Are you on something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Next weekend its quite cold based on the GFS and there could be something right before we torch again from the 22nd-28th. On 1/13/2012 at 5:28 PM, TheTrials said: people seeing two events are on something. There is a rainer, and then nothing, then moderation and another rainer followed by mega torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 5:28 PM, TheTrials said: people seeing two events are on something. There is a rainer, and then nothing, then moderation and another rainer followed by mega torch. Sorry, but rain doesn't fall with 530s thicknesses, sfc temp of 24 and 850 temp of -4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 5:48 PM, Analog96 said: Sorry, but rain doesn't fall with 530s thicknesses, sfc temp of 24 and 850 temp of -4. Except I.don't see any events when that setup is in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 On 1/13/2012 at 5:33 PM, Snow88 said: Are you on something? How many fantasy storms of the GFS resulted in snow this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Today is the 1st day it feels like winter. Have another snow shower passing through right now and with the wind, feels very cold. So nice to feel this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The flow is very progressive and zonal but that setup around hr 192 on the GFS looks mighty interesting. Luckily its still over a week away. If the SW evergy trends stronger we could get an overrunning event followed by a coastal popping as the initial low runs into the high. Boy would blocking really benefit that setup. The temperatures are well below freezing at all levels. Right now the entire system is supressed, but that could possibly have something to do with truncation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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