TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like a pretty classic setup for a dumping in the upslope areas of northern new england. BTV is on board with advisory totals but some others seem to be suggesting up to or above a foot for certain areas. It at least seems to be an interesting event either way with potential to bury powderfreak and friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 From Lead Forecaster John Goff regarding the event in an email exchange : Our best estimate is an additional 3-6 inches for Bolton Valley (they got ~ 2-3" today), with best upslope kicking in later tomorrow afternoon and especially tomorrow evening. Prior to that temperatures aloft just a tad too warm to get much going before 3 pm or so. If you could get up there first thing Saturday morning that would be the best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 adk, any thoughts on possible sw flow upslope event tomorrow at whiteface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 adk, any thoughts on possible sw flow upslope event tomorrow at whiteface? Is ADK Lionel Hutz? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 It's not the classic SW flow - lake connection - dump at whiteface set up. To get this you need a more west and less south. Regardless I still think that WF picks up another 3-6 bringing them into the 8-12 range. (Reliable reports I had put them at 5-6 at 3300 or so). Nor in truth do i think it's the classic upslope pattern for the Greens. Needs a more stable and stacked low. Not saying that it will not be good. Because looking at the parameters there sure is plentup of UVV between 900mb and 850 with good snow growth temps. I think Jim is right that the it's too warm before about 3pm but I think there is more to that story. Not just temps but winds don't align until the afternoon. Remember for good upslope you needs the winds to like - i dunno blow up the slope. Winds from the south tend not to do that very well in the greens since they are aligned N/S on the spine. Winds swing around to the west later in the day and evening. By around 0z saturday is when I think the true "upslope" gets going. By then we have good saturation, omega values in the 8-12 range (negative of course) and temps falling to about -10 c. What spits out between 0z and 12z will be your upslope snow and frankly I don't the NWS captures that well. If you read their WWA that's up they are speaking about the snow tomorrow only. 3-6 seems reasonable. However I think to understand the system you need to add those 12 hours on. And lets see what PF has to say. He's as upslope obsessed as I and knows exactly what works for the Spine. Yes...ADK = LionelHutz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 It's not the classic SW flow - lake connection - dump at whiteface set up. To get this you need a more west and less south. Regardless I still think that WF picks up another 3-6 bringing them into the 8-12 range. (Reliable reports I had put them at 5-6 at 3300 or so). Nor in truth do i think it's the classic upslope pattern for the Greens. Needs a more stable and stacked low. Not saying that it will not be good. Because looking at the parameters there sure is plentup of UVV between 900mb and 850 with good snow growth temps. I think Jim is right that the it's too warm before about 3pm but I think there is more to that story. Not just temps but winds don't align until the afternoon. Remember for good upslope you needs the winds to like - i dunno blow up the slope. Winds from the south tend not to do that very well in the greens since they are aligned N/S on the spine. Winds swing around to the west later in the day and evening. By around 0z saturday is when I think the true "upslope" gets going. By then we have good saturation, omega values in the 8-12 range (negative of course) and temps falling to about -10 c. What spits out between 0z and 12z will be your upslope snow and frankly I don't the NWS captures that well. If you read their WWA that's up they are speaking about the snow tomorrow only. 3-6 seems reasonable. However I think to understand the system you need to add those 12 hours on. Yes...ADK = LionelHutz. Cool, thanks. The site you have is fantastic. Didn't stumble across it until recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adk Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Cool, thanks. The site you have is fantastic. Didn't stumble across it until recently Thanks. I'm just the weather guy and idiot skier that falls a lot. The other guys make it sing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Personally I'm thinking another 4-6" tomorrow afternoon and night. But that's just a middle of the road guess. I could see this sort of crap out at 3" or I could see it go gang-busters with 8-10". I really like the track of the upper level trough and vort max... wind is not the most favorable direction but the atmosphere will be very unstable so I think that will compensate. In my experience, having a strong vort max passing overhead can really help enhance the snowfall rates to almost convective levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Personally I'm thinking another 4-6" tomorrow afternoon and night. But that's just a middle of the road guess. I could see this sort of crap out at 3" or I could see it go gang-busters with 8-10". I really like the track of the upper level trough and vort max... wind is not the most favorable direction but the atmosphere will be very unstable so I think that will compensate. In my experience, having a strong vort max passing overhead can really help enhance the snowfall rates to almost convective levels. Smoked 8-12 but watch those 75 Mph winds blow your fluff into the glades for two foot stashes, sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 5-9 according to btv now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 killington upslope machine turning on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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