Nic Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Best case scenario no rain, then cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Models have been trending this event little south each run. I believe DTX issuing a pure rain event SEMI is a little bullish. With the GFS trends have been south and also the NAM. I would expect a Rain to Snow event with a couple inches possible. Agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Sorry everyone, didnt really specify. i cant show the actual euro map but i made one quick, light blue is .3"-.5" dark is .5"+ sout of pink is mix/rain to snow in places like milwaukee and chicago. all according to the 00z EURO... If this verifies, Toronto may do better than I originally thought. Here's hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 2 clippers to follow this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 GFS continues to trend flatter with the H5 wave, which in turn is making for a weaker sfc wave tracking further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 GFS continues to trend flatter with the H5 wave, which in turn is making for a weaker sfc wave tracking further south. It shows about 1-3" with that weak wave, cooler. But after this last storm.....i rather just wait till now-casting. 1-2 days before I was shown to get 3-6" and in the end I barely got a inch. this is a crap shot winter.....2012-13 ftw. I think the chances are really high now for a new record low snowfall. I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 GFS keeps trending further south. Looks like a Ice to rain to snow event for central Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 It shows about 1-3" with that weak wave, cooler. But after this last storm.....i rather just wait till now-casting. 1-2 days before I was shown to get 3-6" and in the end I barely got a inch. this is a crap shot winter.....2012-13 ftw. I think the chances are really high now for a new record low snowfall. I give up. In fairness though, there were only a couple of models for a couple of runs showing that 3-6" for us. The consensus overall was that we weren't going to see a lot. You seem to be implying yesterday was a bust, which I cannot agree with. That being said, I do sympathize. I think the northern edge of the snow shield yesterday got to about the 407 and died. But the models, especially the RUC, did a pretty good job of showing that harsh NW-SE cline in snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 In fairness though, there were only a couple of models for a couple of runs showing that 3-6" for us. The consensus overall was that we weren't going to see a lot. You seem to be implying yesterday was a bust, which I cannot agree with. That being said, I do sympathize. I think the northern edge of the snow shield yesterday got to about the 407 and died. But the models, especially the RUC, did a pretty good job of showing that harsh NW-SE cline in snowfall amounts. Yeah, I think it was the NAM that was showing the higher amounts. Huffman's weather model site doesn't seem to be updating today - it still has Fridays 6z and 12z GFS - so i'm not sure what models are now showing for tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 In fairness though, there were only a couple of models for a couple of runs showing that 3-6" for us. The consensus overall was that we weren't going to see a lot. You seem to be implying yesterday was a bust, which I cannot agree with. That being said, I do sympathize. I think the northern edge of the snow shield yesterday got to about the 407 and died. But the models, especially the RUC, did a pretty good job of showing that harsh NW-SE cline in snowfall amounts. It was a bust for me. I barely got a inch and places just 10 minutes south got double that. HRRR and NAM over estimated things. I'm sticking with now-casting. For this storm it all depends when the front cuts thru and how the southern stream reacts. I'll be back one day....when we see a decent storm of over 5+cm. Till then enjoy the cold weekend man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 It was a bust for me. I barely got a inch and places just 10 minutes south got double that. HRRR and NAM over estimated things. I'm sticking with now-casting. For this storm it all depends when the front cuts thru and how the southern stream reacts. I'll be back one day....when we see a decent storm of over 5+cm. Till then enjoy the cold weekend man! Yeah, there was big difference in snowfall amounts from downtown Toronto to areas north of Steeles Ave. As of 7-8 am yesterday, the downtown weather station at the U of T already recorded an inch (2.5 cm). The snow didn't end until lunch time. At least 2" (5 cm) in total fell in the downtown core. As for this potential event, a southward shift of 100-200 miles (from last night's 00z Euro) will make a big difference for the Toronto area (rain vs. snow). It will be interesting to see if future model runs trend southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Yeah, there was big difference in snowfall amounts from downtown Toronto to areas north of Steeles Ave. As of 7-8 am yesterday, the downtown weather station at the U of T already recorded an inch (2.5 cm). The snow didn't end until lunch time. At least 2" (5 cm) in total fell in the downtown core. As for this potential event, a southward shift of 100-200 miles (from last night's 00z Euro) will make a big difference for the Toronto area (rain vs. snow). It will be interesting to see if future model runs trend southward. 12z GGEM still likes tracking the sfc low through the thumb of MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Euro way 2 warm..and the furthers n/w with the low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Where do the Euro track the low?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Where do the Euro track the low?? South Michigan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Where do the Euro track the low?? Roughly central IL to the southern end of Lake Huron to near/just north of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Where do the Euro track the low?? From a glance at the Penn State e-wall depiction of the 12z Euro run, which has poor temporal resolution, it looks like it tracks the sfc low through central Missouri and Illinois , up through South Bend, Indiana, then through mid-lower Michigan to about Saginaw. The sfc low is over South Bend at around 12z Tuesday (72 hours out). At 12z Tuesday, the 540-dam line is centered over Chicago, Grand Rapids, and just north of St. Louis; the 850-hPa 0C line is generally just south of the 540-dam line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 All rain?? Roughly central IL to the southern end of Lake Huron to near/just north of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 And what Hoosier said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 weak POS on the euro until it gets to around toronto.. maybe mi and up into canada can pull of a quick 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 weak POS on the euro until it gets to around toronto.. maybe mi and up into canada can pull of a quick 2-4" Yeah looks like it really doesn't pick up too much steam until it's leaving the MW. Moving too quick for my liking. Not expecting much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Euro looks like an inch, maybe two here but nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I would consider this storm major if it stays below 50. lol My forecast.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 850 hell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Will there be any dry air around for evap cooling to take place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Will there be any dry air around for evap cooling to take place? You created a forecast and don't even know the details of the temperature profiles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I would consider this storm major if it stays below 50. lol My forecast.... pretty far south. Not even the GFS would support that. What's your rationale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 weak POS on the euro until it gets to around toronto.. maybe mi and up into canada can pull of a quick 2-4" That's too bad because it would be the perfect track if it was strengthening as it approached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Not looking great but a couple inches still seems quite possible. 2-3 inches for SE Wisconsin is the early call by MKX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 You created a forecast and don't even know the details of the temperature profiles? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.