cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 2:12 AM, hawkeye_wx said: NAM has certainly organized the cold side of the storm today. The 12z run had a little light snow in Iowa, 18z added some light accumulation, and the 00z organizes a nice band of 2-3 inches right across my area. Good luck. Looks pretty good for your area up through southern Wisconsin. BTW you need to update your snow total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 12:51 AM, UW-weather said: true....but the RUC is the only model with that solution. it might not be picking up on the dry air aloft. i guess we will see what the 00z models have your efforts are appreciated and love the graphics. Keep it modest and real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 NAM really winding this storm up back in SE WI/ far northern IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 ~3 hours till this event starts in Madison if the 01z HRRR is right, and then it lasts through early afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 00Z RGEM really beefed up QPF up here for tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Some serious storms with a bunch of lighning popping off in eastern KS/western MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:39 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Some serious storms with a bunch of lighning popping off in eastern KS/western MO HRRR showed some nice banding of the snow in southern Iowa on some of the previous runs. Wonder if there could be some isolated pockets of convective/overachieving snowfall in southern Iowa later on. Will be interesting to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:39 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Some serious storms with a bunch of lighning popping off in eastern KS/western MO Convective freezing rain http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md0019.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Pretty cool precip type radar loop from Beau's site... http://www.weatherobservatory.com/radar_grearth2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 00z GFS snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Set the line for ORD at 1.2" and Caplan took the over. Im 0-1 this year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:48 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Set the line for ORD at 1.2" and Caplan took the over. Im 0-1 this year so far. Wow, seems like he never takes the over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:48 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Set the line for ORD at 1.2" and Caplan took the over. Im 0-1 this year so far. if ya lose tomorrow...for sure take the under for friday, please.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:52 AM, Gilbertfly said: if ya lose tomorrow...for sure take the under for friday, please.... This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 HIRESW NMM going nuts, shows intense snowfall rates aross Central MI/Saginaw Bay/Thumb region tomorrow afternoon. 0.25 QPF in 3 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:48 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Set the line for ORD at 1.2" and Caplan took the over. Im 0-1 this year so far. under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 4:52 AM, Gilbertfly said: if ya lose tomorrow...for sure take the under for friday, please.... lol will it will be his turn to pick the line so we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 000 FXUS63 KDTX 170444 AFDDTX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 1144 PM EST MON JAN 16 2012 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ILLINOIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z ON TUESDAY. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A WIDE SWATH OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN LIGHT RAIN ACROSS SE MI THROUGH THE ENTIRE MORNING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL FALL BELOW 200 FT AND 1/2SM THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT APPROACHES. PRECIP WILL TRANSITION OVER TO SNOW AT MBS BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z AND FNT AND PTK DURING THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SNOWFALL RATES MAY BECOME QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY AROUND MBS. THE SNOW WILL ALSO BE WET AND HEAVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 3:39 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Some serious storms with a bunch of lighning popping off in eastern KS/western MO even a tor warning in MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 5:09 AM, Thundersnow12 said: lol will it will be his turn to pick the line so we'll see! lol nice... DVN throwing some pockets of 4 inch around... Quote AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 1004 PM CST MON JAN 16 2012 .UPDATE... SNOW COULD MAKE FOR MESSY COMMUTE TUE AM OVER NORTHEAST IA INTO NW IL. PCPN BLOSSOMING OVER KS/MO AS SHORTWAVE LIFTS E/NE ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. HEAVIEST PCPN TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH BUT SOME LIGHT PCPN TO SPREAD E/NE ALONG ELEVATED 925-850 FRONTAL ZONE OVER THE SOUTHEAST CWA. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL LIQUID AND SFC TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOSTLY RAIN. ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM SHORTWAVE SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL PLAINS SHOULD BRING SNOW ACROSS THE CWA LATER TNGT AND TUE AM. MODELS SHOWING SOME PRETTY STRONG OMEGAS IN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND SUFFICIENT FORCING ALBEIT FOR SHORT DURATION BUT SUFFICIENT FOR POTENTIAL SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES WITH FAVORED AXIS ROUGHLY NORTH OF KSQI-KMLI-KIOW LINE PER WARM ADVECTION WING AND TRACK OF H85 LOW. CANT RULE OUT EVEN SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS NEAR 4 INCHES IF MODELS VERIFY. SNOW COULD HAVE AN IMPACT ON MORNING COMMUTE AS LOOKS TO BE PRIME-TIME FOR FORCING. HAVE NUDGED UP SNOW AMOUNTS NORTH OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED AXIS. WITH WEAK SFC LOW NOT MOVING MUCH FROM CENTRAL IL TEMPS AND ONSET OF STRONG COLD ADVECTION DELAYED AND SO HAVE REDUCED SNOW AND FREEZING PCPN MENTION SOUTHEAST... AND TWEAKED UP MINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Few showers formed and moved off to the east in NE IL. Shower passed overhead and knocked the temperatures down to the dewpoint. 36°/36° Fog forming out there now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Anyone know where to get the HRRR snow maps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 5:32 AM, UW-weather said: Anyone know where to get the HRRR snow maps?? http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr&domain=t7&run_time=17+Jan+2012+-+03Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 0z ECMWF Reveal hidden contents LSE: TUE 12Z 17-JAN -4.3 -10.9 1013 73 89 0.01 537 526 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -5.9 -14.5 1019 64 98 0.09 531 516 WED 00Z 18-JAN -11.8 -13.5 1024 59 39 0.01 528 510 MSN: TUE 06Z 17-JAN -0.8 -0.9 1009 88 80 0.01 547 539 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -2.6 -6.7 1008 86 94 0.05 541 535 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.0 -12.7 1014 74 100 0.20 533 522 WED 00Z 18-JAN -7.9 -14.2 1021 68 57 0.02 529 512 MKE: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 1.1 1.7 1008 92 74 0.02 548 542 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.3 -2.1 1006 88 68 0.04 544 539 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -3.8 -9.8 1011 80 99 0.20 534 526 WED 00Z 18-JAN -6.1 -14.2 1019 70 100 0.03 529 514 SBM: TUE 12Z 17-JAN -1.2 -6.9 1008 83 85 0.02 541 535 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.7 -11.0 1011 79 100 0.18 532 524 WED 00Z 18-JAN -6.9 -15.3 1019 66 89 0.04 527 512 CID: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.7 0.2 1008 92 40 0.02 549 542 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -2.5 -7.0 1010 87 99 0.11 541 533 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -6.3 -10.8 1021 76 100 0.09 535 519 DVN: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 2.8 2.7 1006 97 52 0.01 550 545 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.2 -2.4 1007 94 97 0.11 544 538 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -3.2 -11.0 1018 79 98 0.10 537 523 WED 00Z 18-JAN -9.1 -11.7 1024 69 68 0.01 535 516 PIA: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 8.1 6.4 1005 95 73 0.01 554 550 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 3.2 1.5 1005 98 87 0.15 549 545 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -0.2 -9.0 1015 76 25 0.03 543 531 WED 00Z 18-JAN -5.5 -11.2 1024 62 51 0.01 539 521 RFD: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 1.8 3.5 1007 94 49 0.04 550 544 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.0 -0.7 1005 94 98 0.08 545 540 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -3.3 -10.5 1014 79 98 0.18 536 525 WED 00Z 18-JAN -6.1 -13.9 1021 73 98 0.02 532 515 ORD: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 3.7 5.2 1006 97 58 0.06 552 547 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 1.2 2.2 1004 96 99 0.07 547 544 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -1.5 -7.7 1010 83 97 0.18 537 530 WED 00Z 18-JAN -4.6 -13.8 1020 72 92 0.01 533 517 MDW: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 5.6 5.8 1005 96 61 0.06 552 548 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 1.9 2.9 1004 96 97 0.06 548 545 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -0.5 -7.4 1010 84 93 0.16 539 531 WED 00Z 18-JAN -3.7 -13.4 1019 71 91 0.02 534 518 VPZ: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 8.3 7.3 1005 96 54 0.09 554 550 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 3.8 5.4 1002 99 93 0.08 550 548 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.0 -6.5 1008 92 83 0.09 541 535 WED 00Z 18-JAN -2.8 -12.8 1018 67 91 0.03 536 521 WED 06Z 18-JAN -5.1 -14.0 1024 61 13 0.01 534 515 LAF: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 11.5 8.5 1006 94 80 0.08 557 552 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 12.0 7.4 1002 99 74 0.44 554 552 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 4.4 -3.0 1008 80 36 0.12 548 541 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.3 -11.3 1019 63 57 0.01 543 527 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.6 -12.6 1025 68 17 0.01 538 519 OKK: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 11.4 8.4 1007 93 80 0.02 557 552 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 11.7 7.5 1002 98 84 0.43 554 552 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 6.8 -1.0 1006 80 31 0.18 548 543 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.6 -10.9 1018 71 52 0.03 543 529 FWA: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 10.1 8.4 1007 94 55 0.01 557 551 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 11.2 6.9 1002 98 91 0.33 553 551 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 9.5 1.1 1002 85 41 0.25 547 545 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.2 -10.5 1016 70 64 0.02 541 529 WED 06Z 18-JAN -3.7 -14.3 1022 66 54 0.01 536 519 MKG: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 1.8 2.0 1008 95 67 0.01 549 543 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.8 0.9 1004 92 58 0.04 545 542 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -0.3 -7.2 1005 88 100 0.27 536 532 WED 00Z 18-JAN -3.5 -13.9 1015 73 98 0.11 529 517 WED 06Z 18-JAN -6.4 -16.3 1022 69 25 0.02 528 511 GRR: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 2.0 3.1 1007 100 84 0.04 550 544 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 1.5 3.0 1004 97 64 0.05 547 544 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.5 -3.8 1002 93 95 0.20 537 536 WED 00Z 18-JAN -4.0 -12.7 1014 79 98 0.08 530 519 WED 06Z 18-JAN -9.9 -16.2 1022 80 15 0.01 528 512 BTL: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 4.7 4.9 1007 99 79 0.08 552 547 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 4.2 4.7 1002 99 76 0.08 549 547 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.8 -0.4 1001 96 81 0.16 540 539 WED 00Z 18-JAN -2.9 -11.7 1014 79 94 0.04 533 522 WED 06Z 18-JAN -7.1 -15.6 1021 75 25 0.01 530 514 DTW: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 5.5 4.6 1008 97 91 0.07 553 546 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 6.4 5.6 1003 99 85 0.19 551 548 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 10.9 5.2 996 95 54 0.27 545 548 WED 00Z 18-JAN 0.6 -8.8 1008 81 69 0.03 535 529 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.6 -14.5 1018 60 84 0.01 530 516 PHN: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 4.3 2.7 1009 97 58 0.06 551 544 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 4.0 3.9 1004 99 86 0.10 549 546 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 8.5 6.8 995 97 79 0.20 543 548 WED 00Z 18-JAN -0.3 -9.4 1006 82 85 0.07 532 527 WED 06Z 18-JAN -5.8 -15.2 1016 69 86 0.02 527 515 YKF: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 2.9 0.5 1010 97 91 0.19 550 542 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 2.7 1.7 1007 99 91 0.08 549 543 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 4.9 4.3 998 99 97 0.21 545 546 WED 00Z 18-JAN 0.9 -4.4 997 91 68 0.12 533 535 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.3 -13.6 1010 66 80 0.02 526 518 WED 12Z 18-JAN -7.2 -16.1 1018 64 19 0.02 524 510 YYZ: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 3.1 0.0 1010 95 97 0.16 550 541 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 2.8 1.0 1007 98 97 0.05 548 542 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 3.9 3.2 1000 97 100 0.19 545 545 WED 00Z 18-JAN 4.6 -1.0 993 85 62 0.19 533 539 WED 06Z 18-JAN -3.5 -13.9 1009 65 85 0.01 525 518 WED 12Z 18-JAN -6.6 -16.1 1017 65 32 0.01 524 510 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 6:03 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z ECMWF Thanks, looks like 2-3 inches, which is what I will go with and jives with what mets here think about this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 6:11 AM, wisconsinwx said: Thanks, looks like 2-3 inches, which is what I will go with and jives with what mets here think about this system. I think someone in southern WI will get 4" as the highest total. Will prove to be an interesting rush hour here on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 On 1/17/2012 at 6:18 AM, Geos said: I think someone in southern WI will get 4" as the highest total. Will prove to be an interesting rush hour here on north. I agree, I think one of the NW suburbs who stays all snow will be the lucky 4" recipient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 If the HRRR is to be believed, a snow band should blossom over southern WI within the hour and kick this thing off. Just woke up from a nap so who knows, maybe I'll see this whole thing. Sitting a tad below 30 °F on top of the met building, so temps are good with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 Been watching the dewpoints and temperatures slowly slide in the region. Had a couple showers, now light fog at 36°/35° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The 1 am band of snow the HRRR was insistent on has not materialized. Rather, clouds have cleared out a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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