BowMeHunter Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 clipper holds steady pretty much.. maybe can milk 5" from both and not worry about least snowiest winter anymore lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Models are coming in at a better agreement, Here is my forecast: more at: http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 6:44 AM, UW-weather said: Models are coming in at a better agreement, Here is my forecast: more at: http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/ Looks good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Damn low pressure storms have a crush on detroit. Stay away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 This storm looks blah here. Not nearly the torching with it the euro showed at one time, but prolonged period of mid-upper 30s should wipe out my 2" snowcover and LES looks minimal to none on the backside as the cold air moves in. Cutting losses, onto Wed night clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 2:13 PM, michsnowfreak said: This storm looks blah here. Not nearly the torching with it the euro showed at one time, but prolonged period of mid-upper 30s should wipe out my 2" snowcover and LES looks minimal to none on the backside as the cold air moves in. Cutting losses, onto Wed night clipper. You need a 12 step program to help with your white powder addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Per GRR morning AFD: SHORT TERM...(400 AM EST MON JAN 16 2012) (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON) LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTN AS SOUTH TO SW WINDS ADVECT MILDER AIR INTO OUR FCST AREA. MAX TEMPS THIS AFTN ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE 35 TO 40 DEGREE MARK IN THE WAA PATTERN AND IN SPITE OF THE SNOW COVER. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL FOR A LITTLE FREEZING DRIZZLE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA TODAY DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY SFC TEMPS MODERATE IN THE WAA PATTERN. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT RAIN AND MELTING SNOW AND WARMER AIR OVERRUNNING SOME MELTING SNOW COVER SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR SOME AREAS OF LIGHT FOG TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND PARTICULARLY THIS EVE WHEN IT COULD BECOME RATHER DENSE. A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PCPN IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY SYNOPTIC SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE STRENGTHENING SFC LOW TUESDAY... RANGING FROM AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AND PERHAPS LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ESPECIALLY UP NORTH. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER BREEZY TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. WE DID BUMP UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL FOR SNOW TUESDAY AND TWEAKED FCST SNOW ACCUMS UP A BIT TO NEAR 4 INCHES ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FCST AREA. THIS BASED LARGELY ON 00Z GFS GUIDANCE. AFTER LOOKING AT 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO CONTINUE THE TREND OF BUMPING UP FCST SNOW AMOUNTS A LITTLE MORE FOR TUESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 LOT discussion: Quote ...WINTRY MIX AND SNOWFALL POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY... WITH RISING TEMPERATURES AND AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW...LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...AND FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA TODAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR...PROVIDING A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW ON TUESDAY. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS LIGHT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LA SALLE TO CHICAGO. ALTHOUGH...THIS SHOULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW WITH NO ICE ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH MID MORNING TUESDAY FOR ALL AREAS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA. BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. Sounds like enough snowfall to cause morning rush hour headaches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 6:19 PM, Gilbertfly said: impressive... If setups like this continue into the spring we could have a dangerous severe weather season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 12z ECMWF Reveal hidden contents LSE: TUE 12Z 17-JAN -3.8 -10.6 1012 78 95 0.04 537 528 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -5.2 -14.5 1018 66 99 0.12 531 517 WED 00Z 18-JAN -12.1 -13.3 1023 64 32 0.01 528 511 MSN: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.1 0.2 1008 91 55 0.02 548 541 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -2.0 -5.0 1007 90 84 0.06 542 537 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -3.7 -12.1 1013 75 99 0.17 534 523 WED 00Z 18-JAN -7.1 -14.5 1020 71 72 0.02 529 513 MKE: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 1.8 1.9 1008 92 44 0.02 549 543 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.7 -0.7 1004 94 67 0.04 544 541 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -2.9 -8.6 1009 80 98 0.14 535 528 WED 00Z 18-JAN -5.8 -13.8 1018 73 97 0.02 529 515 SBM: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.6 -1.7 1009 88 71 0.01 547 539 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.7 -5.4 1006 87 78 0.04 542 537 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.2 -10.0 1009 82 99 0.17 533 525 WED 00Z 18-JAN -6.4 -14.7 1018 70 97 0.05 527 513 CID: TUE 00Z 17-JAN 2.6 2.4 1007 92 29 0.01 552 546 TUE 06Z 17-JAN 1.2 -0.3 1008 93 35 0.01 549 543 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -1.7 -6.0 1009 89 97 0.11 542 535 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -5.1 -11.2 1019 73 97 0.04 536 521 DVN: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 2.7 2.1 1006 98 46 0.01 551 546 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.6 -2.0 1006 98 100 0.13 544 540 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -1.9 -10.5 1016 76 61 0.05 538 525 PIA: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 4.0 1.9 1005 97 84 0.11 549 545 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.3 -8.3 1014 76 31 0.02 543 532 WED 00Z 18-JAN -4.7 -11.3 1023 61 53 0.01 540 522 RFD: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 2.1 2.9 1006 98 42 0.03 551 545 TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.6 -0.5 1004 97 99 0.13 545 542 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -2.3 -9.6 1012 79 72 0.12 537 527 WED 00Z 18-JAN -5.0 -13.8 1020 73 94 0.01 532 516 ORD: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 2.2 1.7 1003 98 99 0.07 548 545 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -0.3 -6.7 1009 85 77 0.12 539 532 WED 00Z 18-JAN -4.2 -13.3 1019 71 96 0.01 533 518 MDW: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 3.5 2.7 1002 98 98 0.09 548 547 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.6 -6.2 1008 87 73 0.10 540 533 WED 00Z 18-JAN -3.3 -12.8 1018 70 97 0.01 534 519 VPZ: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 6.7 5.6 1001 100 100 0.14 551 550 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.7 -4.5 1007 95 69 0.10 543 537 WED 00Z 18-JAN -2.6 -12.4 1017 68 98 0.03 536 522 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.9 -13.6 1024 62 10 0.01 534 516 LAF: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 12.1 7.6 1002 98 85 0.42 554 553 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 5.1 -1.0 1008 77 30 0.17 549 542 WED 00Z 18-JAN -0.4 -11.2 1018 65 21 0.01 543 529 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.5 -11.8 1024 65 9 0.01 539 520 MKG: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 1.7 1.8 1003 95 58 0.04 546 543 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.8 -5.1 1002 90 98 0.21 537 535 WED 00Z 18-JAN -2.7 -13.1 1014 76 100 0.07 528 517 WED 06Z 18-JAN -6.2 -16.0 1021 70 19 0.03 528 512 GRR: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 1.9 3.6 1002 99 68 0.04 547 545 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.4 -1.0 1000 96 89 0.22 539 538 WED 00Z 18-JAN -2.7 -11.8 1012 80 99 0.04 530 520 WED 06Z 18-JAN -8.6 -15.7 1021 79 18 0.01 529 513 BTL: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 4.6 0.0 1000 96 59 0.20 542 542 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.9 -10.7 1012 82 91 0.02 533 524 WED 06Z 18-JAN -6.4 -15.1 1021 75 36 0.02 531 515 DTW: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 10.7 5.5 996 95 74 0.28 546 549 WED 00Z 18-JAN 1.6 -7.9 1007 80 25 0.02 536 531 WED 06Z 18-JAN -3.7 -13.8 1017 61 73 0.01 531 517 PHN: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 8.0 6.1 995 98 83 0.19 544 548 WED 00Z 18-JAN 0.7 -8.3 1005 84 40 0.04 534 530 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.1 -14.3 1015 67 78 0.02 527 516 YKF: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 5.2 4.4 998 98 100 0.16 546 547 WED 00Z 18-JAN 2.0 -3.3 997 92 41 0.16 534 537 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.0 -13.2 1009 68 73 0.02 526 519 WED 12Z 18-JAN -7.1 -15.7 1018 65 42 0.02 525 511 YYZ: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 4.4 3.9 999 96 100 0.25 546 546 WED 00Z 18-JAN 5.8 -0.2 994 86 42 0.17 535 540 WED 06Z 18-JAN -3.0 -13.4 1008 66 78 0.01 525 519 WED 12Z 18-JAN -6.6 -15.9 1017 66 68 0.01 524 511 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 6:21 PM, SpartyOn said: If setups like this continue into the spring we could have a dangerous severe weather season. yeah pretty amazing temp gradient...DP's piling up as well... 16Z RUC showing some convection in MO and IL which isn't unheard of in january...but still interesting/fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 6:23 PM, Chicago Storm said: 12z ECMWF LAF: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 12.1 7.6 1002 98 85 0.42 554 553 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 5.1 -1.0 1008 77 30 0.17 549 542 WED 00Z 18-JAN -0.4 -11.2 1018 65 21 0.01 543 529 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.5 -11.8 1024 65 9 0.01 539 520 A dusting. Pretty sure that's an improvement for LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 17Z RUC pops areas north of the QC for 3 or 4 inches. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18z NAM finally caving and coming in with more precip in the cold sector through 18hrs as well as slower/stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Looks like a couple areas in the cold sector could score a coup with this one depending on where the best growth zones line up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 7:59 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 18z NAM finally caving and coming in with more precip in the cold sector through 18hrs as well as slower/stronger. Well it's about time! lol. Nice of it to join the party! Looks good for a couple inches here. Simulating radar starting at 018hours. link to > Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 I know its not in the GL, but nearly a 50 degree drop in less than 24hrs for Ainsworth NE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 18z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Models picking up on lake effect/enhanced snow in miami valley area with NW flow wend/thur. I think it will be simmilar to last time T-3" with temps in high teens/low 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 loving the 18z GFS!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Damn that is looking good. Strong for a clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 1000 hPa low somewhere near the middle of MO, pretty good deepening since this morning. Only enough lift so far to generate a swath of low clouds, but HRRR shows precip starting within a couple hours over MO. Then a sloppy mass of precip starts making its way towards WI after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 10:12 PM, turtlehurricane said: Damn that is looking good. Strong for a clipper. Hope baroclinic_instability isn't reading this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 10:12 PM, turtlehurricane said: Damn that is looking good. Strong for a clipper. Not a clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 10:35 PM, Stebo48858 said: Not a clipper... I'm not gonna call this a storm, too weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 10:36 PM, turtlehurricane said: I'm not gonna call this a storm, too weak. Yeah it is weak but clippers have certain definitions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 10:35 PM, Stebo48858 said: Not a clipper... Yeah, that what I was trying to convey indirectly through the post above yours. Nobody got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 10:36 PM, turtlehurricane said: I'm not gonna call this a storm, too weak. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 10:12 PM, turtlehurricane said: Damn that is looking good. Strong for a clipper. It's called a clipper for a reason, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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