Nic Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 On 1/14/2012 at 9:01 PM, Powerball said: You created a forecast and don't even know the details of the temperature profiles? Lol that is kind of dumb of me, I would consider myself a novice. I am only 18 and have not had a college education in any atmospheric science yet. I was just eyeballing the NAM for the forecast. I hope I will be able to make a more accurate forcase in 5-10 years from now after I have finished college. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Canadian model holds onto a decent storm for the Western Lakes. ...The exact opposite of the GFS & NAM. Which one will win out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On 1/14/2012 at 11:19 PM, Nic said: Lol that is kind of dumb of me, I would consider myself a novice. I am only 18 and have not had a college education in any atmospheric science yet. I was just eyeballing the NAM for the forecast. I hope I will be able to make a more accurate forcase in 5-10 years from now after I have finished college. don't worry about it, I used to email joe bastardi when I was like 16 when his stuff was free on accuweather and ask him about the ecmwf and where I could view it and tell him his forecast was wrong. You have to start somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On 1/15/2012 at 6:09 AM, cmichweather said: don't worry about it, I used to email joe bastardi when I was like 16 when his stuff was free on accuweather and ask him about the ecmwf and where I could view it and tell him his forecast was wrong. You have to start somewhere Nice lol did he ever reply when you did this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On 1/15/2012 at 6:56 AM, Stebo48858 said: Nice lol did he ever reply when you did this? haha no, Henry M. used to reply to me though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Even when they went to a pay format, you could still get the videos. I remember watching Joe B and laughing. All his sayings were so stupid. The air that was coming was always "Siberian" and the snow was always going to be measured in feet. I think he had to many dumbbells fall on his head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 I give the GFS credit for consistency but it's handling this storm too cold. You can see from WV loops how vigorous that piece of energy off the westcoast is. I don't see why it should be dampened out as much as the GFS depicts. Warmer and north will be correct, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 15, 2012 Author Share Posted January 15, 2012 GFS 12Z Shows something very Special For Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On 1/15/2012 at 4:06 PM, dmc76 said: GFS 12Z Shows something very Special For Toronto. very special and very wrong. Honestly, I've put all my eggs in the clipper basket for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Looks like a 2-4" event here across central MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On 1/15/2012 at 4:06 PM, dmc76 said: GFS 12Z Shows something very Special For Toronto. Yeah that track looks good for your area. Maybe half a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On 1/15/2012 at 5:39 PM, Geos said: Yeah that track looks good for your area. Maybe half a foot! dmc's in SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 12z Euro coming in stronger/slower through 54hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 euro looks pretty nice for the northern half of lower mi. maybe a couple 3" back in wi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On 1/15/2012 at 6:15 PM, BowMeHunter said: euro looks pretty nice for the northern half of lower mi. maybe a couple 3" back in wi. also looks nice for the next small event on Friday for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 On 1/15/2012 at 6:23 PM, Thundersnow12 said: also looks nice for the next small event on Friday for both of us. Yeah if things worked out right could maybe almost double the snowfall for the season so far. Depressing and typical that we could finally have a decent snow pack to maybe snowmobile on but its already torching it away saturday while tropical is riding his moterized mountain bike around like a goof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Looks like 3 snow"storm" possibilities this week before a period of hell begins next weekend. Hopefully most of us can cash in on at least one if not two of the three. Tentatively looks like the most potent one will be right before the torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Environment Canada usually rides the GGEM hard and the GGEM appears to be the warmest model for the upcoming system. Yet, they are now forecasting "rain or snow" for Tuesday with a high temp only a couple of degrees above freezing (vs. rain and a high temp in the upper 40s at 5.00am). Maybe they see something redeeming in the GFS? I don't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 Update on second system/cold shot>> http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/01/and-battle-is-on-round-one.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 15, 2012 Share Posted January 15, 2012 sad stuff here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 0z GFS capitulates. There's a surprise. Looks nice for MKE-ORD. Josh's mom better hide the toaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 3:54 AM, snowstormcanuck said: 0z GFS capitulates. There's a surprise. Looks nice for MKE-ORD. Josh's mom better hide the toaster. OMG, watch the Ill crowd lagg this forum in 10 minutes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 0z GFS def an improvement here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 RGEM looks good from Milwaukee through northern lower-Michigan. Still don't expect much here, maybe a quick inch Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 GFS is bombing the low out as it heads northeast starting 12z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Anyone has the qpf numbers for MKE, Madison, Rockford, and ORD? Looks maybe up above 0.30" possibly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 0z ECMWF Reveal hidden contents LSE: TUE 12Z 17-JAN -3.8 -9.0 1012 77 94 0.02 538 529 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.7 -14.2 1016 68 100 0.09 532 519 WED 00Z 18-JAN -9.9 -13.2 1022 64 22 0.02 528 511 MSN: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.7 -0.2 1008 93 44 0.02 548 541 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -1.3 -3.9 1007 92 63 0.03 543 537 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.1 -10.5 1011 82 99 0.14 534 526 WED 00Z 18-JAN -6.3 -14.5 1018 73 99 0.03 529 514 MKE: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.8 -0.9 1006 93 47 0.04 545 541 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -1.7 -7.7 1007 84 99 0.14 537 531 WED 00Z 18-JAN -5.1 -12.6 1016 75 100 0.04 529 517 WED 06Z 18-JAN -12.6 -12.4 1022 78 26 0.01 529 512 SBM: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.5 -1.3 1009 90 59 0.02 547 540 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.9 -4.4 1007 87 62 0.02 543 537 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -3.5 -9.3 1008 84 99 0.12 535 528 WED 00Z 18-JAN -5.8 -13.8 1015 74 99 0.06 527 516 WED 06Z 18-JAN -12.2 -12.8 1022 76 35 0.01 527 510 CID: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 1.0 -1.0 1008 92 36 0.01 550 543 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -1.6 -4.6 1009 89 100 0.07 544 537 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.9 -10.5 1017 76 87 0.05 536 523 DVN: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.8 -2.1 1006 98 100 0.09 546 541 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -1.8 -8.8 1013 82 71 0.09 538 528 WED 00Z 18-JAN -7.4 -11.8 1021 72 91 0.01 534 517 PIA: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 4.5 3.7 1004 99 86 0.06 551 547 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.8 -5.9 1011 83 66 0.09 543 534 WED 00Z 18-JAN -4.2 -11.2 1021 64 61 0.01 540 523 RFD: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 1.0 -0.9 1005 98 89 0.05 546 542 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -2.3 -7.8 1010 87 98 0.19 537 530 WED 00Z 18-JAN -4.3 -13.3 1018 76 99 0.03 532 518 ORD: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 2.4 1.6 1004 98 62 0.03 548 545 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.0 -4.6 1006 91 98 0.19 540 535 WED 00Z 18-JAN -3.7 -11.8 1016 75 99 0.03 533 521 MDW: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 4.1 2.7 1004 98 70 0.03 549 546 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.7 -3.6 1006 92 93 0.18 541 536 WED 00Z 18-JAN -3.0 -11.4 1016 74 99 0.03 535 522 WED 06Z 18-JAN -6.3 -11.9 1022 68 23 0.01 532 515 VPZ: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 3.2 -1.3 1004 94 69 0.24 544 540 WED 00Z 18-JAN -2.2 -10.4 1015 78 88 0.05 537 525 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.8 -13.9 1021 67 63 0.02 533 516 MKG: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.8 -2.6 1002 93 98 0.20 539 537 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.8 -11.4 1011 78 99 0.09 530 521 WED 06Z 18-JAN -5.1 -15.4 1019 71 37 0.03 527 513 GRR: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.3 0.1 1000 96 93 0.18 541 541 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.3 -9.6 1009 86 92 0.05 532 525 WED 06Z 18-JAN -6.3 -14.8 1018 79 80 0.01 528 514 BTL: WED 00Z 18-JAN -0.9 -8.9 1009 87 66 0.02 535 528 WED 06Z 18-JAN -5.3 -14.0 1018 77 81 0.02 530 516 DTW: WED 00Z 18-JAN 2.1 -4.9 1004 85 34 0.10 538 535 WED 06Z 18-JAN -2.5 -11.6 1014 68 93 0.02 531 520 PHN: WED 00Z 18-JAN 1.8 -5.1 1002 92 72 0.15 536 535 WED 06Z 18-JAN -2.3 -12.3 1012 77 98 0.03 528 519 WED 12Z 18-JAN -6.0 -15.3 1019 68 17 0.01 526 511 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 6:16 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z ECMWF Reveal hidden contents LSE: TUE 12Z 17-JAN -3.8 -9.0 1012 77 94 0.02 538 529 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.7 -14.2 1016 68 100 0.09 532 519 WED 00Z 18-JAN -9.9 -13.2 1022 64 22 0.02 528 511 MSN: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.7 -0.2 1008 93 44 0.02 548 541 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -1.3 -3.9 1007 92 63 0.03 543 537 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.1 -10.5 1011 82 99 0.14 534 526 WED 00Z 18-JAN -6.3 -14.5 1018 73 99 0.03 529 514 MKE: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.8 -0.9 1006 93 47 0.04 545 541 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -1.7 -7.7 1007 84 99 0.14 537 531 WED 00Z 18-JAN -5.1 -12.6 1016 75 100 0.04 529 517 WED 06Z 18-JAN -12.6 -12.4 1022 78 26 0.01 529 512 SBM: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 0.5 -1.3 1009 90 59 0.02 547 540 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -0.9 -4.4 1007 87 62 0.02 543 537 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -3.5 -9.3 1008 84 99 0.12 535 528 WED 00Z 18-JAN -5.8 -13.8 1015 74 99 0.06 527 516 WED 06Z 18-JAN -12.2 -12.8 1022 76 35 0.01 527 510 CID: TUE 06Z 17-JAN 1.0 -1.0 1008 92 36 0.01 550 543 TUE 12Z 17-JAN -1.6 -4.6 1009 89 100 0.07 544 537 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -4.9 -10.5 1017 76 87 0.05 536 523 DVN: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 0.8 -2.1 1006 98 100 0.09 546 541 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -1.8 -8.8 1013 82 71 0.09 538 528 WED 00Z 18-JAN -7.4 -11.8 1021 72 91 0.01 534 517 PIA: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 4.5 3.7 1004 99 86 0.06 551 547 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.8 -5.9 1011 83 66 0.09 543 534 WED 00Z 18-JAN -4.2 -11.2 1021 64 61 0.01 540 523 RFD: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 1.0 -0.9 1005 98 89 0.05 546 542 TUE 18Z 17-JAN -2.3 -7.8 1010 87 98 0.19 537 530 WED 00Z 18-JAN -4.3 -13.3 1018 76 99 0.03 532 518 ORD: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 2.4 1.6 1004 98 62 0.03 548 545 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.0 -4.6 1006 91 98 0.19 540 535 WED 00Z 18-JAN -3.7 -11.8 1016 75 99 0.03 533 521 MDW: TUE 12Z 17-JAN 4.1 2.7 1004 98 70 0.03 549 546 TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.7 -3.6 1006 92 93 0.18 541 536 WED 00Z 18-JAN -3.0 -11.4 1016 74 99 0.03 535 522 WED 06Z 18-JAN -6.3 -11.9 1022 68 23 0.01 532 515 VPZ: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 3.2 -1.3 1004 94 69 0.24 544 540 WED 00Z 18-JAN -2.2 -10.4 1015 78 88 0.05 537 525 WED 06Z 18-JAN -4.8 -13.9 1021 67 63 0.02 533 516 MKG: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 0.8 -2.6 1002 93 98 0.20 539 537 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.8 -11.4 1011 78 99 0.09 530 521 WED 06Z 18-JAN -5.1 -15.4 1019 71 37 0.03 527 513 GRR: TUE 18Z 17-JAN 1.3 0.1 1000 96 93 0.18 541 541 WED 00Z 18-JAN -1.3 -9.6 1009 86 92 0.05 532 525 WED 06Z 18-JAN -6.3 -14.8 1018 79 80 0.01 528 514 BTL: WED 00Z 18-JAN -0.9 -8.9 1009 87 66 0.02 535 528 WED 06Z 18-JAN -5.3 -14.0 1018 77 81 0.02 530 516 DTW: WED 00Z 18-JAN 2.1 -4.9 1004 85 34 0.10 538 535 WED 06Z 18-JAN -2.5 -11.6 1014 68 93 0.02 531 520 PHN: WED 00Z 18-JAN 1.8 -5.1 1002 92 72 0.15 536 535 WED 06Z 18-JAN -2.3 -12.3 1012 77 98 0.03 528 519 WED 12Z 18-JAN -6.0 -15.3 1019 68 17 0.01 526 511 Looks like 0.23 for MKE.. Niiice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Thanks Chicago Storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 On 1/16/2012 at 6:21 AM, BeastFromtheEast said: Looks like 0.23 for MKE.. Niiice! When I looked at Wunderground maps, looked like about 2" of snow, and the text output pretty much confirms. Comes mainly during the morning hours, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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