Snowstorms Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 it's just too improbable to go snowless or near snowless the rest of the way out. Worst case scenario, we approach 2009-10/1952-53 type totals. And think of the upside: we're so far back of that right now that means another 40cm is on the way! At this rate....even 10cm wil be hard to achieve, in final totals. I'm still thinking Feb-April are going to be winning in our region but I've always been a hopeless dreamer 2009-10/2006-07/2001-02/1999-00 and 1952-53 were horrible Winters esp 2009-10 and 1952-53. I promised the guys back on accuwx that If we get a storm of over 10cm this Winter I will ask the girl I like out, and hopefuly she still likes me back, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 it's just too improbable to go snowless or near snowless the rest of the way out. Worst case scenario, we approach 2009-10/1952-53 type totals. And think of the upside: we're so far back of that right now that means another 40cm is on the way! idk it seems as if it's hard to believe we are going to get alot of nsow this winter with the AK vortex seemingly being stubborn to die Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 idk it seems as if it's hard to believe we are going to get alot of nsow this winter with the AK vortex seemingly being stubborn to die We need the La Nina climo to kick in. Typically we see an Aleutian Ridge, -PNA/-EPO pattern in a Nina which is why WCanada is always cooler. La Nina's often offer gradient patterns. Again February-April are going to be last months we have for any improvement. BTW, March 1870 got 160cm down in Toronto, you never know ahey LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Just got home... Its absolutely pathetic outside. It feels like Early April. No Snow. Looks bleak for anything over 1" It's snowing hard in southern OH then SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 We need the La Nina climo to kick in. Typically we see an Aleutian Ridge, -PNA/-EPO pattern in a Nina which is why WCanada is always cooler. La Nina's often offer gradient patterns. Again February-April are going to be last months we have for any improvement. BTW, March 1870 got 160cm down in Toronto, you never know ahey LOL I am really feeling March/April are going to be below normal & possibly fairly snowy (Feb too). We have had some mild springs lately and I think payday is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 2.2" 0.5" in the last 2 hours. Dendrites my azz. Haven't gotten past snow grains all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Priceless... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 At this rate....even 10cm wil be hard to achieve, in final totals. I'm still thinking Feb-April are going to be winning in our region but I've always been a hopeless dreamer 2009-10/2006-07/2001-02/1999-00 and 1952-53 were horrible Winters esp 2009-10 and 1952-53. I promised the guys back on accuwx that If we get a storm of over 10cm this Winter I will ask the girl I like out, and hopefuly she still likes me back, lol. Eh, this winter has been an exemplar as to why LRF should be taken with more than a grain of salt. So I'm not going to get my hopes up. But I do take solace in the fact that it can't get any worse at least. And there were a lot of other crappy winters before 1999-00. 1994-95, 1982-83, etc. It just seem like the recent "bad" winters have been particularly bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 idk it seems as if it's hard to believe we are going to get alot of nsow this winter with the AK vortex seemingly being stubborn to die Oh, it's more than likely that we're not going to get "a lot of snow" the rest of the way out. But we're not going to end the season on 3 or 4" or whatever we're at now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Eh, this winter has been an exemplar as to why LRF should be taken with more than a grain of salt. So I'm not going to get my hopes up. But I do take solace in the fact that it can't get any worse at least. And there were a lot of other crappy winters before 1999-00. 1994-95, 1982-83, etc. It just seem like the recent "bad" winters have been particularly bad. The late 40s/early 50s were also bad, but not as bad as the more recent winters. 2001-2002 was Toronto's warmest since records began in 1839. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Eh, this winter has been an exemplar as to why LRF should be taken with more than a grain of salt. So I'm not going to get my hopes up. But I do take solace in the fact that it can't get any worse at least. And there were a lot of other crappy winters before 1999-00. 1994-95, 1982-83, etc. It just seem like the recent "bad" winters have been particularly bad. I don't know man. When it comes to LRF, I think it's more about the forecaster that you follow (or the science/method that you choose to use that particular winter). Harry, for example, is mopping the floor with everyone else (as far as I can tell) so far this year, and it's not as if he took a wild guess and just got lucky. Unlike synoptic or even mesoscale meteorology, I put virtually zero value in forecaster consensus when it comes to LRF. This winter was going to be mild - 99% chance. But this mild? Ouch...I won't be a fool and say I saw it being this bad. Look on the bright side...even if we all get dry slotted for 75% of this storm, it'll still be one of our best snows of the 2011-2012 winter season!!! :cry: :cry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 What a nice rain storm next week.. Very nice I like...NOT...Whatever happened to the arctic air??...this honestly sucks..... Next week's rainstorm is pulling it south. Right now, the cold air is hardly even in Canada. Pattern change in progress. 144 hour 00z GFS brings the -20C at 850 down to the OH/MI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Next week's rainstorm is pulling it south. Right now, the cold air is hardly even in Canada. Pattern change in progress. 144 hour 00z GFS brings the -20C at 850 down to the OH/MI border. I never trust a gfs arctic outbreak. posted this evening in the philly region thread: Hey guys. I have a quick second. Literally, I've never seen the weeklies this warm vs. normal. Week 2 is +10 at least across the whole country. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Hardly a surprise this winter on the GFS in the triple digit timeframe. Probably end up a bit more zonal. Good to know, i'll get buried up in MKE and you'll be torching... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 There's good agreement on it being fairly cold in the northern tier after early next week. The question is how long it lasts and obviously the trends aren't looking very good. I'm still going to hope that with all of that cold air in Canada that some of it can bleed south and give a colder look than what it looks like right now but low confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I don't know man. When it comes to LRF, I think it's more about the forecaster that you follow (or the science/method that you choose to use that particular winter). Harry, for example, is mopping the floor with everyone else (as far as I can tell) so far this year, and it's not as if he took a wild guess and just got lucky. Unlike synoptic or even mesoscale meteorology, I put virtually zero value in forecaster consensus when it comes to LRF. This winter was going to be mild - 99% chance. But this mild? Ouch...I won't be a fool and say I saw it being this bad. Look on the bright side...even if we all get dry slotted for 75% of this storm, it'll still be one of our best snows of the 2011-2012 winter season!!! :cry: :cry: Interesting thesis. But how do you determine which forecaster to follow? I know you can automatically throw out the charlatans (JB, Henry M, etc). But by accepting Harry's forecast (who I infer forecasted warm this winter?) you must believe he has some sort of statistical skill advantage over the other forecasters. How did you come to that determination? Intuition? Assessing previous forecasts? Sorry for all the questions. Want to learn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 There's good agreement on it being fairly cold in the northern tier after early next week. The question is how long it lasts and obviously the trends aren't looking very good. I'm still going to hope that with all of that cold air in Canada that some of it can bleed south and give a colder look than what it looks like right now but low confidence. I thought Chicago_Wx and I were jerks for mentioning that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I thought Chicago_Wx and I were jerks for mentioning that? Let's not go there again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 ok this dryslot can fill in any time now, thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 I thought Chicago_Wx and I were jerks for mentioning that? Haters gonna hate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Haters gonna hate. GFS starting to show signs.....by 384 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 GFS starting to show signs.....by 384 hours I'll take that into consideration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Really not much to complain about here. Ended up with just under 3", have a few 6-7" drifts around the house. Looks very winter like, I'm ready for spring now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 God... Put this winter out of its misery. Shoot it with a fireball torch Mario style. I'm ready to start getting weenie wood over CAPE and shear values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 God... Put this winter out of its misery. Shoot it with a fireball torch Mario style. I'm ready to start getting weenie wood over CAPE and shear values. The next one had BETTER be ours. Whats funny is that DTW is still beating ORD in seasonal snowfall. they can have the nickels next, give us a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The next one had BETTER be ours. Whats funny is that DTW is still beating ORD in seasonal snowfall. they can have the nickels next, give us a storm. Didn't realize not only in sports and politics to we rival Chicago... now its Snowfall... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 The next one had BETTER be ours. Whats funny is that DTW is still beating ORD in seasonal snowfall. they can have the nickels next, give us a storm. Yeah, but the gap has definitely been completely closed. It's funny they got much of their seasonal snowfall in one powdery storm while we've been penny and nickeling it with numerous low ratio rain-to-snow events. These things do have a way of evening themselve out one way or another of course... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Yeah, but the gap has definitely been completely closed. It's funny they got much of their seasonal snowfall in one powdery storm while we've been penny and nickeling it with numerous low ratio rain-to-snow events. These things do have a way of evening themselve out one way or another of course... That's why I said Boston winters are better earlier in the season. Detroit is the KING for nickle and dimes snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 IWX busted bigtime. The funny thing is, the writing was on the was from noon on yesterday and they continued to ride their ridiculous amounts even as I went to bed. My forecast was still for 6-9" N of hwy 30 with locally heavier amounts. I just laughed and went to bed and woke up to 3" I'd say. Lake effect looks to be sagging southward some so maybe another 1-2" they say. It's still pretty and white and I'm happy with what fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 That's why I said Boston winters are better earlier in the season. Detroit is the KING for nickle and dimes snow events. Agreed. As long as the snow doesnt melt for a few days ill take boston winters. Lol still at your priceless map of advisories. Its all good. We've had alot of good winters the last 10 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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