Predict DTWs Snowfall.

[DAFF]

We have been so close the past two systems for substacial snows.... Its fair game till April 17th anyhow.

[SpartyOn]

I laugh everytime someone calls this perpetual Fall. To me perpertual late Fall would be constant, cloudy every day, highs in the mid-40s and lows near 30. Thats not been the case as this has been a very roller coaster winter with obviously a huge lean towards mild but with a few 1-2 day cold blasts where temps actually did fall 10-15 degrees below normal (not enough to keep this from being a top-10 warmest winter). Hell its those changeable temps with a strong lean towards mild that have helped fuel an abundance of sickness/flu everywhere.

To clarify, Im talking measurable snow. There will be no sustained period of winter, hell there hasnt been SUSTAINED winter since last March. It is that reason that this is the worst possible winter for someone like me, even though the final snowfall number is nowhere near futility. But I must say good luck to YOU holding out that we will see no more measurable snow. GFS torch means nothing, weve had many Marches that torched away only to have snowstorms after the 20th. Im holding out for something (meas snow after Mar 1) that has happened 129 times since 1881 and you are holding out for something thats happened 2 times since 1881. Again, good luck

It was in reference to climo of 8 inches for Mar/April. NOT in reference to measurable snow. Maybe I should have clarified.

[Trent]

However, only 20 days have had 1"+ snowcover, which tied with 1941-42 for the 9th "barest" winter since 1908. (In all fairness, I can name at least 3 winters from 1880-1907 that were probably even more bare, but dont have snowcover data).

Top 5 barest winters since 1908 (1"+ snowcover days)

1) 10 days - 1936-37

2) 11 days - 1931-32

3) 12 days - 1918-19

4) 15 days - 1982-83

5) 16 days - 1952-53

That's the real kicker this winter. And as you posted the other week, a lot of days this winter just "barely" met the criteria for 1" snow cover days, e.g. snow that was rounded up, half melted, or was already gone by afternoon. We've had 23 days with an inch and even that's been a stretch. We had a few days where it started snowing at 8 am and then the inch of snow melted by early afternoon, so because it wasn't there for 7 am it doesn't count. So the term "days" with snow cover is kind of irrelevant, more like, was there snow on the ground at least for a few minutes around 7 am?

[michsnowfreak]

It was in reference to climo of 8 inches for Mar/April. NOT in reference to measurable snow. Maybe I should have clarified.

Oh ok, gotcha. Thats definitely up in the air.

[dmc76]

I doubt that it has played a huge role in the past, because they dont always get more snow. DTW airport actually had snow obs for more than 20 years before they became the official. Storm track plays a big role, sometimes DET will do better, sometimes DTW. A storm pounds the east side, DTW will do better. A 94 band develops, DTW will do better, etc. Funny story the very FIRST winter the obs were moved to DTW (1966-67), one of the biggest storm gradients happened. The Jan 1967 storm dropped approx 11" around City Airport but only 4" plus a sh*tload of ice at DTW. Though DET really didnt keep accurate snow obs once the official site was moved in 1966. Since no records have been kept at DET in 45+ years, theres really no accurate comparison of seasonal snowfall between DET and DTW, unlike MDW and ORD, as MDW still does snow obs even though the official obs site moved to ORD some time ago.

................DET.....DTW...................DTW differential

1943-44.....22.8"....21.3"..................-1.5"

1944-45.....25.8"....30.2"..................+4.4"

1945-46.....22.0"....20.4"..................-1.6"

1946-47.....30.0"....20.6"..................-9.4"

1947-48.....26.6"....26.0"..................-0.6"

1948-49.....13.7"....11.3"..................-2.4"

1949-50.....42.8"....39.0"..................-3.8"

1950-51.....42.2"....40.1"..................-2.1"

1951-52.....58.6"....58.2"..................-0.4"

1952-53.....16.6"....18.6"..................+2.0"

1953-54.....40.0"....41.8"..................+1.8"

1954-55.....27.3"....26.9"..................-0.4"

1955-56.....45.2"....44.5"..................-0.7"

1956-57.....45.6"....39.5"..................-6.1"

1957-58.....18.0"....17.3"..................-0.7"

1958-59.....37.2"....32.4"..................-4.8"

1959-60.....47.7"....45.4"..................-2.3"

1960-61.....18.0"....22.1"..................+4.1"

1961-62.....28.1"....30.1"..................+2.0"

1962-63.....29.7"....37.6"..................+7.9"

1963-64.....32.5"....34.2"..................+1.7"

1964-65.....49.2"....59.1"..................+9.9"

Somethings wrong with 1946/47. No way it can be that far apart

[michsnowfreak]

That's the real kicker this winter. And as you posted the other week, a lot of days this winter just "barely" met the criteria for 1" snow cover days, e.g. snow that was rounded up, half melted, or was already gone by afternoon. We've had 23 days with an inch and even that's been a stretch. We had a few days where it started snowing at 8 am and then the inch of snow melted by early afternoon, so because it wasn't there for 7 am it doesn't count. So the term "days" with snow cover is kind of irrelevant, more like, was there snow on the ground at least for a few minutes around 7 am?

True. Just like last winter.....80 days had 1"+, but then you have for instance, Dec 12th when the snow depth was 1"+ by 8am (a T at 7am) and then once the main snowpack was whittled to a T last March, for several days after the piles and old patches still gave the appearance of the harsh winter that just had passed. The comparison between this winter and last is insane.

DTWs snow depth in 2010-11: (97 days with T+, 80 days with 1"+)

T- 17 days

1"- 3 days

2"- 8 days

3"- 2 days

4"- 10 days

5"- 23 days

6"- 9 days

7"- 5 days

8"- 2 days

9"- 6 days

10"- 0

11"- 1 day

12"- 5 days

13"- 3 days

14"- 1 day

15"- 1 day

16"- 1 day

DTWs snow depth in 2011-12 (46 days with T+, 20 days with 1"+)

T- 26 days

1"- 9 days

2"- 2 days

3"- 6 days

4"- 2 days

5"- 1 day

One thing I will say though...looking at those top few snowcover-futility winters, this winter is no contest for their bareness. Pre-1948 they actually listed snow depth in inches and tenths, tho for consistency purposes I rounded them to the inch, but the same thing applied then (snowfalls of 0.5-0.9 rounded up to 1" depth, and quite a few of the days in those bare winters were also technically less than an inch, melted by afternoon, etc).

1936-37: 10 days: Dec 19 (1"), Jan 22-29 (3", 2", 2", 1", 1", 1", 1", 1"), Feb 4 (1").

1931-32: 11 days: Feb 1 (1"), Feb 4-9 (7", 5", 4", 3", 2", 1"), Mar 21-24 (4", 3", 3", 1").

1918-19: 12 days: Dec 29 (1"), Jan 2 (1"), Jan 6 (1"), Feb 17-19 (2", 1", 1"), Mar 5-7 (1", 1", 1"), Mar 9-11 (5", 2", 1").

1982-83: 15 days: Nov 27 (1"), Dec 9 (1"), Feb 4-5 (1", 1"), Feb 7-8 (2", 1"), Feb 19 (1"), Mar 21-26 (6", 6", 5", 4", 3", 1"), Apr 17 (2")

1952-53: 16 days: Dec 2-4 (2", 2", 1"), Dec 12 (1"), Jan 3-8 (1", 1", 1", 1", 1", 1"), Jan 11-13 (1", 1", 1"), Jan 29-31 (1", 2", 1")

[michsnowfreak]

Somethings wrong with 1946/47. No way it can be that far apart

Yeah looks funky, as does 1964-65 (this time DTW having more...though basing surrounding stations I totally believe DTW). You never know though, especially since they werent "official", esp back in 1946-47...makes you wonder if the measuring was accurate. Who knows, but measuring snow is always highly subject to human error.

[Trent]

1952-53: 16 days: Dec 2-4 (2", 1", 1"), Dec 12 (1"), Jan 3-8 (1", 1", 1", 1", 1", 1"), Jan 11-13 (1", 1", 1"), Jan 29-31 (1", 2", 1")

That looks like the worst of the lot. Yikes, just 2 days with 2" or more. Ouch. Those 1 inch days probably didn't even feel wintry.

Probably could have gotten by the entire winter without a plow or shovel.

[michsnowfreak]

That looks like the worst of the lot. Yikes, just 2 days with 2" or more. Ouch. Those 1 inch days probably didn't even feel wintry.

Probably could have gotten by the entire winter without a plow or shovel.

Yup. BTW brief error, Dec 3rd was 2" so it was 3 days. I remember years ago when it was a data-collection frenzy to get all of Detroits climate data typed, organized etc, it was all about GETTING everything and not actually looking too much into any one thing. But since Ive had it for a while Ive looked in depth at some of the more interesting things (good and bad), and 1952-53 is definitely up there in the wtf category. It is the ONLY winter since 1880 when there was never a 3" snow depth at observation time. Heres a detailed look at '52-53's snowcover (or lackthereof I should say). We think this winter was bad...that winter, as bad as 16.6" total snowfall IS, it probably seemed like MUCH less at the time due to the snowcover situation.

A 2.6" wet snow fell from 12am-11am Dec 2nd, staying on the ground for 3 days. I imagine Dec 2nd was quite scenic, but as temps hit the upper 30s with drizzle on the 3rd, the snowmelt commenced in earnest, with the 1" depth on Dec 4th (high 40, low 34) probably very short-lived. On Dec 12th, morning 0.7" fell but as temps hit 36F in the afternoon, Im sure it wasnt but a half-day of white. After a few dustings after Christmas, fastforward to the Jan 3-8 period of 1" depth. Off and on light snow fell, but looking at the hourly obs, it was never really organized, just drawn out throughout the day (Jan 2-8 daily snowfall: 0.2, 0.6, T, 0.6, 0.3, 0.1, 0.6+ice), probably just enough to keep the ground at a constant depth of about an inch, with plowing certainly unnecessary. Jan 11th saw the winters best snowfall (3.2"), but the obs time depth was 1" on the 11th as the snow didnt start til 4am, and also 1" on the 12/13th as melting went on as the snow stopped midday the 11th with temps hitting the mid-30s. Then on the 29th, a fluffy 20-1 ratio 0.6" fell from 3-7am, just in time for a 1" depth, and then on the 30th a 2.6" snowfall (4-9am) fell, but began melting once again quite quickly as temps hit 40, then mid-40s and rain washed away the remaining snow probably by midday the 31st. Scattered dustings in Feb-Apr occurred, depth never better than a T.

Did you see my link the other day...official climate data GALORE!!

http://www7.ncdc.noa...715A6B0FFC0FA8D

[Powerball]

My prediction looks to be right on target.

In fact, my projected snowfall total may even be too high yet.

[Stebo]

I say what it is right now is what it will be.

[hm8]

I say what it is right now is what it will be.

But Josh promised another storm

[Stebo]

But Josh promised another storm

Sorry

[weatherpsycho]

It is only the beginning of March. I would not say we are done just yet. April 2005 was very much acting like winter was all done and then boom a 16" snowstorm late April. Heck even spring 2003 was acting done before the ice & snow storm combo.

[michsnowfreak]

DTW at 25.9" thru March 6th. We have been very due for a below-avg season, and its a near lock that this will be one. Didnt make the top20 of least snowy winters even, so it definitely could have been worse. But that said...

Very ballsy call to say that will be the final. Not impossible of course, but not likely. Weatherpsycho pointed out a great example, but the weather books are full of examples just like them. Tons of March torches ahead of spring snowstorms. The next few weeks look to be torch city, so I doubt any measurable snow will occur in that span. But we have realistically til mid-late April to see measurable snow, and technically we can see it in May (though that of course is very rare).

[michsnowfreak]

But Josh promised another storm

Dont give up yet Sustained cold, sustained snowcover, forget it. But a spring snowstorm is still very, very possible.

[dmc76]

Dont give up yet Sustained cold, sustained snowcover, forget it. But a spring snowstorm is still very, very possible.

First day of spring storm 1996. Temps were in the 50's all week then boom! Unexpected snowstorm 5 to 11" for SEMI. 1998 another storm on the first day of spring. 2003 mega 4 day Ice event followed by a 6" snow event. 2005 up to 16" of snow. Last year 3-4" around the area on April 23rd. So yes I agree winters are NEVER over until May 1st in Michigan although this year it might be unlikely but its not over. You never know.

[DAFF]

All my equipment is now at the shop. Only one truck with a salter still in it. Anything is possible in the spring, 60's followed by 5". The key is to be prepared for anything. I think there will be many new feathered friends arriving from the south this week from the southern jet or wind. Looking at the isobars it is a direct flight for them with minimal effoort.

[SpartyOn]

As much as I don't want to see another flake I agree it's highly possible for a sneak attack. Last year was classic. April- 84 degrees one weekend and a week or so latter we got 2 inches of cement that melted in 3 hours.

Seasonal trends laugh at us this year. Threading the needle in March or April is complicated.

[SpartyOn]

DTW at 25.9" thru March 6th. We have been very due for a below-avg season, and its a near lock that this will be one. Didnt make the top20 of least snowy winters even, so it definitely could have been worse. But that said...

Very ballsy call to say that will be the final. Not impossible of course, but not likely. Weatherpsycho pointed out a great example, but the weather books are full of examples just like them. Tons of March torches ahead of spring snowstorms. The next few weeks look to be torch city, so I doubt any measurable snow will occur in that span. But we have realistically til mid-late April to see measurable snow, and technically we can see it in May (though that of course is very rare).

May? Only once in my life may 1st and it was mixed with rain also to top it off it was north of I69. That is the ultimate long shot.

[dmc76]

May? Only once in my life may 1st and it was mixed with rain also to top it off it was north of I69. That is the ultimate long shot.

May 1997 seen Flurries mixed with Rain during the Wings/Colorado series. I remember driving home after game 2. I was in aww at the snowfall. Not sure on the date but it was middle May. Thats the only time ive seen May Flurries. So its extremely rare.

[michsnowfreak]

First day of spring storm 1996. Temps were in the 50's all week then boom! Unexpected snowstorm 5 to 11" for SEMI. 1998 another storm on the first day of spring. 2003 mega 4 day Ice event followed by a 6" snow event. 2005 up to 16" of snow. Last year 3-4" around the area on April 23rd. So yes I agree winters are NEVER over until May 1st in Michigan although this year it might be unlikely but its not over. You never know.

The April 23-25, 2005 had area-wide record highs in the 80s on the 19th.

[michsnowfreak]

May? Only once in my life may 1st and it was mixed with rain also to top it off it was north of I69. That is the ultimate long shot.

It is not unheard of to have a trace of snow in May. I recall it in 1994, 1996, 2002, and the biggest, 2005. Had off and on flakes for 2 days (May 2 and 3), culminating in a heavy snow shower on the 3rd that dropped 0.1" for the first measurable May snow since 1954 (0.2" imby). Surprised no one mentioned that. 2002 was the weirdest because it was on May 20th, couldnt believe my eyes. But yes, it is the ultimate longshot. April however, is not a longshot. In 131 years of record, 97 of the 131 years saw measurable snow in April, and of the 34 that did not, 28 saw a trace and just 6 saw no snow at all.

May on the other hand, 27 years have seen May snowfall, the other 104 years, nothing. Measurable May snows in Detroit are as follows:

6.0" - May 9, 1923

5.0" - May 21/22, 1883

1.5" - May 13, 1912

0.5" - May 10, 1902

0.4" - May 1/2, 1909

0.2" - May 4, 1907

0.1" - May 4, 1954

0.1" - May 3, 2005

[SpartyOn]

Wild guess and really hopefull Feb delivers. So I think DTW will somehow find a way to sneak in a 30" + season.

[A-L-E-K]

whatever they have now + 8.3"

 

 

looking good

[Harry Perry]

Well you know what they say... In like a lamb out like a lion.

I agree with clippers being our main events here in our area for a while. 1-3" and for the lucky ones on the west side (Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Allegan, West Kalamazoo)... NWS GRR already talking of significant accumulations (LES) next week. Good for them. Must be nice to have a snow storm last for days on end!

[WestMichigan]

Well you know what they say... In like a lamb out like a lion.

I agree with clippers being our main events here in our area for a while. 1-3" and for the lucky ones on the west side (Grand Rapids, Muskegon, Allegan, West Kalamazoo)... NWS GRR already talking of significant accumulations (LES) next week. Good for them. Must be nice to have a snow storm last for days on end!

Not going to happen.  There may be periods of snow, but not something lasting for days on end.  We are only looking at a couple of inches right now, although that will vary based on the exact wind direction.

[Harry Perry]

Just blowing steam. I'm particulary talking about previous years. I remember waking up for work, looking at the radar and seeing that big, thick band of snow dragging from Lake Michigan sitting over Muskegon and GR. I'd come home and sure enough that same band is still sitting there just dumping 10 hours later!

But those were also the days when it seemed like every other day my NWR would being going off at 4PM for a WSW...

[Chargers09]

Are we doing this for this year too? If so I'll go out on a limb and say 30 inches or so. 

[Stebo]

32.4"