BeastFromTheEast Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 whatever they have now + 8.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 26 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 Gee!!! I'll guess 25" Simple.. I'm going for a sub 30 inch winter. If I had to pick a number it would be 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 While I plan on lowering my call of 55" from the Fall, I really would like to wait until Feb 1st to see where we are and where we are likely headed. As said, if we get exactly climo the rest of the way (28"), that would put DTW at 34.7". There are several scenarios going through my head...the season sits at 6.7" thru Jan 11th. Option #1) It is very very, VERY common, esp in a Nina winter to have at least one month be abnormally snowy. Its not a guarentee, but its extremely likely. Now if you double your April average, thats less than 4" of snow. If you double your Feb average thats 21". We have had quite the phenomena streak going in Februaries since 2007, esp 2008, 2010, 2011. So it would only be fitting if Feb is the month that produces. I will go climo the rest of Jan (which will still put us below for the month as a whole), double climo Feb, and climo Mar and Apr. This will be about 39" more snowfall thanks to a 21" Feb, and that will put us at 45-46" on the season. Option #2) We basically ride climo the rest of the way, not above, not below, and end up at 34-35". Option #3) This option I consider BY FAR the LEAST likely, Im only doing it to humor those who think a bad start to winter, plus being due for a bad winter = a bad winter. We go half climo the rest of the way (14") which leaves us at 20-21" total. This is least likely for a number of reasons. La Ninas have an extremely high probability of seeing above normal precip, so even if its not sticking around long, snow will be falling over the next 3 months. Also, I give us a 95% chance at going into a pattern change of a persistent period of abnormal cold at SOMETIME during the remaining 3 months of the cold season. Now, late March and April cold with "stat-padding" snowfall is not what anyone wants, though it has happened before. Lets hope for all that this cold/snowy period occurs in Feb (though I wouldnt mind March). Option #4) This option is also imo very unlikely (though not as unlikely as #3). Over 50" of snow fell in Feb/Mar 2008. Nearly 60" fell in Feb/Mar 1900. Its possible that we still do see some crazy backend loaded winter to still push us near 60". Again, very unlikely, but if you are going to take two extremely unlikely scenarios (#3 and #4), the determining factor for me would be what kind of "snow cycle" have you been in recently....and clearly thats a snowy one here. Right now, i would give the percentages... #1) 50% #2) 40% #3) 4% #4) 6% Will make a call feb 1st. Where's your call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Roughly 35" of snow, mostly 1-3" events (mix of powdery clipper and slop storms) one WWA event between February 20th-March 20th, no winter storm (or storm greater than 6"). No way this is a sub-20" winter. The snowcover lovers (other than michsnowfreak, he'll find SOMETHING positive about this bad, but by far the the worst, winter) will be about ready to commit suicide when it's all said and done, and so will the snowstorm lovers. The winter haters will WISH all winters were like this and the Global Warming hysteria will kick into full gear again. 98% chance of my prediction verifying. Oh, and for good measures, I'm sticking with my prediction that YYZ will continue to remain Winter Storm-free, 0.2% chance of THIS prediction being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Where's your call? I will say approximately 36", which would mean 20-21" more of snowfall. Climo from here on out is 16 more inches. Originally I was thinking maybe Feb would be our lover again, but lately Ive been really feeling a snowy March. We had a blockbuster March in 2008, but other than that Marches have been pretty tame lately, and many forget just how wintry or how big of a snowstorm March can give us. Then again, the pattern looks to get more active...so maybe Feb WILL produce. Who knows. I have revised my call from 55" (Fall) to 36" (now), and again, no way in hell DTW stays under 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Roughly 35" of snow, mostly 1-3" events (mix of powdery clipper and slop storms) one WWA event between February 20th-March 20th, no winter storm (or storm greater than 6"). No way this is a sub-20" winter. The snowcover lovers (other than michsnowfreak, he'll find SOMETHING positive about this bad, but by far the the worst, winter) will be about ready to commit suicide when it's all said and done, and so will the snowstorm lovers. The winter haters will WISH all winters were like this and the Global Warming hysteria will kick into full gear again. 98% chance of my prediction verifying. Oh, and for good measures, I'm sticking with my prediction that YYZ will continue to remain Winter Storm-free, 0.2% chance of THIS prediction being wrong. I agree with your total, but I can see a winter storm warning happening. Also, keep in mind Im one of the biggest snowcover lovers there is, so from that aspect there isnt anything positive to say. And I think you were trying to say "about this bad, but from from the worst, winter"? And yes of course I can find SOMETHING positive to say about this winter (our winter spells have come on weekends, this is far from the "worst winter ever", and I saw 2" of LES in 2 hours one day), but it doesnt change the fact that this was a sh*tty winter. Just like I can say something negative about last winter, that being that we didnt get the epic, massive storm, but it doesnt change the fact that last winter was my favorite ever. You can always find a negative and positive in everything, but it wont change the general Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 15" to date add 4 1" snows 2 4" and a biggn of 11"= 38" seasonal total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 15" to date add 4 1" snows 2 4" and a biggn of 11"= 38" seasonal total. Id be happy. Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Watch this be the year that Detroit finally gets its blockbuster 15-incher. I wouldn't know what to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Watch this be the year that Detroit finally gets its blockbuster 15-incher. I wouldn't know what to think. That would be a breath of fresh air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 8, 2012 Share Posted February 8, 2012 Watch this be the year that Detroit finally gets its blockbuster 15-incher. I wouldn't know what to think. Last year when we were buried in snow without the aid of a blockbuster, I called it, saying wed get our blockbuster storm in a lackluster winter. Of course I was thinking more past 2011-12 bc I thought this would be a good winter. Since its not, and there is 2 months left of big snowstorm potential...ya never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Last year when we were buried in snow without the aid of a blockbuster, I called it, saying wed get our blockbuster storm in a lackluster winter. Of course I was thinking more past 2011-12 bc I thought this would be a good winter. Since its not, and there is 2 months left of big snowstorm potential...ya never know To be fair, the only blockbuster storm we had in past seasons (and we're speaking 14"+) which would have otherwise ended on a below normal note is 1885-1886 (1899-1900 too technically, but it was so anomalous that I'm ignoring it). But how about 1899-1900, 14-16" storms for Detroit, within the same week. I would have loved to seen the upper air and surface patterns for that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 To be fair, the only blockbuster storm we had in past seasons (and we're speaking 14"+) which would have otherwise ended on a below normal note is 1885-1886 (1899-1900 too technically, but it was so anomalous that I'm ignoring it). But how about 1899-1900, 14-16" storms for Detroit, within the same week. I would have loved to seen the upper air and surface patterns for that week. I know, 1899-00 would be insane. Only 9.4" on the season through February 3rd, and we ended up with 69.1"!!! (10.0" storm on Feb 4, 14.0" on Feb 28-Mar 1, and 16.1" on Mar 4-5, and 26" snow depth at obs time March 5th which was probably closer to 30" at its peak before sleet/rain pelted it down). The reason I made the call of a blockbuster coming in a lackluster winter was because it was only fitting. We have been in a pattern in recent years where it does anything and everything to snow here. We saw insane snowfall from 2007-11, hell our only "bad" winter of the 4 years was near-to-slightly above average in 2009-10 (a strong Nino, which usually sees below normal snow)...the other 3 were way, way above normal. But yet despite ALL this, we couldnt get THE storm. So I said it would only be fitting if a sucky winter, when the ingredients just dont want to come together often for snowstorms, ends up surprising us with THE storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I know, 1899-00 would be insane. Only 9.4" on the season through February 3rd, and we ended up with 69.1"!!! (10.0" storm on Feb 4, 14.0" on Feb 28-Mar 1, and 16.1" on Mar 4-5, and 26" snow depth at obs time March 5th which was probably closer to 30" at its peak before sleet/rain pelted it down). The reason I made the call of a blockbuster coming in a lackluster winter was because it was only fitting. We have been in a pattern in recent years where it does anything and everything to snow here. We saw insane snowfall from 2007-11, hell our only "bad" winter of the 4 years was near-to-slightly above average in 2009-10 (a strong Nino, which usually sees below normal snow)...the other 3 were way, way above normal. But yet despite ALL this, we couldnt get THE storm. So I said it would only be fitting if a sucky winter, when the ingredients just dont want to come together often for snowstorms, ends up surprising us with THE storm. Wow, so if I understand you correctly, March 4th-5th was a snow to rainstorm (that dumped a front-end thumping of 16"!?)!? Or was there a warmer storm that trailed right behing this March 4th-5th storm on March 5th? But if it was a snow to rain storm, I can't imagine that happening today. The closest I think we came to that happening in recent history was the Groundhog's Day Blizzard and the 1999 Blizzard, and even those seem to hardly compare. Heck, I can't imagine that type of hyper-active weather pattern (that brought several consecutive 10"+ storms) happening again in any month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 But how about 1899-1900, 14-16" storms for Detroit, within the same week. I would have loved to seen the upper air and surface patterns for that week. You can do that here: http://www.esrl.noaa...20thc.day.v2.pl Data goes back to January 1871. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 42.8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Id be happy. Where are you located? Windsor Ontario. Only if we could get those 2-3" rains from the late fall over running a Arctic front.... Personally I would love this winter to be remembered as the winter that almost wasn't, followed by 3 back to back crushing snow storms of 10"+++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 Wow, so if I understand you correctly, March 4th-5th was a snow to rainstorm (that dumped a front-end thumping of 16"!?)!? Or was there a warmer storm that trailed right behing this March 4th-5th storm on March 5th? But if it was a snow to rain storm, I can't imagine that happening today. The closest I think we came to that happening in recent history was the Groundhog's Day Blizzard and the 1999 Blizzard, and even those seem to hardly compare. Heck, I can't imagine that type of hyper-active weather pattern (that brought several consecutive 10"+ storms) happening again in any month. I remember reading that the storm turned to sleet and rain before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 42.8". Windsor Ontario. Only if we could get those 2-3" rains from the late fall over running a Arctic front.... Personally I would love this winter to be remembered as the winter that almost wasn't, followed by 3 back to back crushing snow storms of 10"+++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 9, 2012 Share Posted February 9, 2012 I remember reading that the storm turned to sleet and rain before ending. I just took a look at both storms at the link ChicagoWX provided. It appears the February 28th-March 1st storm was a Appalachians Runner and the March 4th-5th storm was indeed an CAD overunning event (frontogenesis/isentropic lift) until the very end as you say, with the actual trough still sitting back across the west coast. For an event most similar to the March 4th-5th in recent memory, see that even that impacted the Ohio Valley back in January of 2009. I assume the March 2008 Blizzard would be most similar to the other event in recent history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 6.7" now another 18.8" 25.5" Impressive! Crystal ball? Down into the final stretch this ought to be an interesting finish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 26 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 29, 2012 Share Posted February 29, 2012 Impressive! Crystal ball? Down into the final stretch this ought to be an interesting finish. It will be almost impossible for DTW not get more snow through April. We always get that sneaky 2-6" snowfall lMiddle/late March and early April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 29, 2012 Author Share Posted February 29, 2012 It will be almost impossible for DTW not get more snow through April. We always get that sneaky 2-6" snowfall lMiddle/late March and early April Good ..my 27 inch call might have photo finish. Standings. Top 6 1. DMC 25.5 2. Chagers09 26 3. SpartyOn. 27 4. Stebo. 35 5. MiSNFrk. 36 (exactly) 6. Powerball. 36.( roughly-/+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Heres some interesting numbers for you....snowcover FTL 25.8" has fallen at DTW....if not one more flake falls this is only the 21st least snowy winter on record since 1880 (coincidentally its tied with 1944-45, a bitterly cold winter with suppression and constant snowcover). But thats a moot point anyway because who looks beyond top 20 lol (some people dont even look past 10...Im a 20 guy myself). Top 5 least snowy winters since 1880: 1) 12.9" - 1936-37 2) 13.2" - 1881-82 3) 13.7" - 1948-49 4) 15.2" - 1918-19 5) 15.4" - 1965-66 However, only 20 days have had 1"+ snowcover, which tied with 1941-42 for the 9th "barest" winter since 1908. (In all fairness, I can name at least 3 winters from 1880-1907 that were probably even more bare, but dont have snowcover data). Top 5 barest winters since 1908 (1"+ snowcover days) 1) 10 days - 1936-37 2) 11 days - 1931-32 3) 12 days - 1918-19 4) 15 days - 1982-83 5) 16 days - 1952-53 While March/April 1946 and 2010 only saw a trace of snow, saying that it IS possible to see no more measurable snow....it is extremely unlikely, as stebo said. Climo in Mar/Apr is 8.6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Freak You pointed out last night that Data was used in City airport in the past. My guess is that has played a huge role in Detroits snow totals in the past. I would almost suggest tacking on 3-4" on each winters amounts through 1965. You know and I know DTW gets more snowfall then the city itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted March 1, 2012 Author Share Posted March 1, 2012 Heres some interesting numbers for you....snowcover FTL 25.8" has fallen at DTW....if not one more flake falls this is only the 21st least snowy winter on record since 1880 (coincidentally its tied with 1944-45, a bitterly cold winter with suppression and constant snowcover). But thats a moot point anyway because who looks beyond top 20 lol (some people dont even look past 10...Im a 20 guy myself). Top 5 least snowy winters since 1880: 1) 12.9" - 1936-37 2) 13.2" - 1881-82 3) 13.7" - 1948-49 4) 15.2" - 1918-19 5) 15.4" - 1965-66 However, only 20 days have had 1"+ snowcover, which tied with 1941-42 for the 9th "barest" winter since 1908. (In all fairness, I can name at least 3 winters from 1880-1907 that were probably even more bare, but dont have snowcover data). Top 5 barest winters since 1908 (1"+ snowcover days) 1) 10 days - 1936-37 2) 11 days - 1931-32 3) 12 days - 1918-19 4) 15 days - 1982-83 5) 16 days - 1952-53 While March/April 1946 and 2010 only saw a trace of snow, saying that it IS possible to see no more measurable snow....it is extremely unlikely, as stebo said. Climo in Mar/Apr is 8.6". Anything is possible. Heck one day the Lions will win the Super Bowl. Climo in this winter proved useless. IMO might as well stick a fork into the rest of this perpetual fall/ winter. Esspecially if this pattern sticks around as depicted by guidance. But like I said anything is possible. So if you want to hold out hope..Gods Speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Freak You pointed out last night that Data was used in City airport in the past. My guess is that has played a huge role in Detroits snow totals in the past. I would almost suggest tacking on 3-4" on each winters amounts through 1965. You know and I know DTW gets more snowfall then the city itself. I doubt that it has played a huge role in the past, because they dont always get more snow. DTW airport actually had snow obs for more than 20 years before they became the official. Storm track plays a big role, sometimes DET will do better, sometimes DTW. A storm pounds the east side, DTW will do better. A 94 band develops, DTW will do better, etc. Funny story the very FIRST winter the obs were moved to DTW (1966-67), one of the biggest storm gradients happened. The Jan 1967 storm dropped approx 11" around City Airport but only 4" plus a sh*tload of ice at DTW. Though DET really didnt keep accurate snow obs once the official site was moved in 1966. Since no records have been kept at DET in 45+ years, theres really no accurate comparison of seasonal snowfall between DET and DTW, unlike MDW and ORD, as MDW still does snow obs even though the official obs site moved to ORD some time ago. ................DET.....DTW...................DTW differential 1943-44.....22.8"....21.3"..................-1.5" 1944-45.....25.8"....30.2"..................+4.4" 1945-46.....22.0"....20.4"..................-1.6" 1946-47.....30.0"....20.6"..................-9.4" 1947-48.....26.6"....26.0"..................-0.6" 1948-49.....13.7"....11.3"..................-2.4" 1949-50.....42.8"....39.0"..................-3.8" 1950-51.....42.2"....40.1"..................-2.1" 1951-52.....58.6"....58.2"..................-0.4" 1952-53.....16.6"....18.6"..................+2.0" 1953-54.....40.0"....41.8"..................+1.8" 1954-55.....27.3"....26.9"..................-0.4" 1955-56.....45.2"....44.5"..................-0.7" 1956-57.....45.6"....39.5"..................-6.1" 1957-58.....18.0"....17.3"..................-0.7" 1958-59.....37.2"....32.4"..................-4.8" 1959-60.....47.7"....45.4"..................-2.3" 1960-61.....18.0"....22.1"..................+4.1" 1961-62.....28.1"....30.1"..................+2.0" 1962-63.....29.7"....37.6"..................+7.9" 1963-64.....32.5"....34.2"..................+1.7" 1964-65.....49.2"....59.1"..................+9.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 1, 2012 Share Posted March 1, 2012 Anything is possible. Heck one day the Lions will win the Super Bowl. Climo in this winter proved useless. IMO might as well stick a fork into the rest of this perpetual fall/ winter. Esspecially if this pattern sticks around as depicted by guidance. But like I said anything is possible. So if you want to hold out hope..Gods Speed. I laugh everytime someone calls this perpetual Fall. To me perpertual late Fall would be constant, cloudy every day, highs in the mid-40s and lows near 30. Thats not been the case as this has been a very roller coaster winter with obviously a huge lean towards mild but with a few 1-2 day cold blasts where temps actually did fall 10-15 degrees below normal (not enough to keep this from being a top-10 warmest winter). Hell its those changeable temps with a strong lean towards mild that have helped fuel an abundance of sickness/flu everywhere. To clarify, Im talking measurable snow. There will be no sustained period of winter, hell there hasnt been SUSTAINED winter since last March. It is that reason that this is the worst possible winter for someone like me, even though the final snowfall number is nowhere near futility. But I must say good luck to YOU holding out that we will see no more measurable snow. GFS torch means nothing, weve had many Marches that torched away only to have snowstorms after the 20th. Im holding out for something (meas snow after Mar 1) that has happened 129 times since 1881 and you are holding out for something thats happened 2 times since 1881. Again, good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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