SpartyOn Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Simple.. I'm going for a sub 30 inch winter. If I had to pick a number it would be 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 6.7" now another 18.8" 25.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 6.7" now another 18.8" 25.5" Good call. It will be this thread that separates the weenies from the realistas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Good call. It will be this thread that separates the weenies from the realistas. I do think DTW does get a 5-7" event at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I do think DTW does get a 5-7" event at some point I can see FEB being a busy month. Issue I have is the overall pattern. Now debatable is the pattern change and it's effects( if it ever comes) we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I can see FEB being a busy month. Issue I have is the overall pattern. Now debatable is the pattern change and it's effects( if it ever comes) we shall see. Well the next 2 weeks look shot. So are hope would be late Jan into Feb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yup. Not too mention the chatter of an early warm spring would take a **** on march.. We shall see though as the track record with long range seasonal forecast has been garbage. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 I would not rule out the possibilty of a sub 20inch either. Especially if it's the end of jan and we are staring at a zonal regime into Feb while at the same time DTW stands below 10inched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I would not rule out the possibilty of a sub 20inch either. Especially if it's the end of jan and we are staring at a zonal regime into Feb while at the same time DTW stands below 10inched. 1995-96 and 97-98 were bad winters.. we always made out in March. Keep that in mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Another troll thread made by an admitted troll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Another troll thread made by an admitted troll. Will be great to bump in mid-April though fwiw for anyone who does want to make a serious guess, climo from Jan 11th onward is 28". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A serious guess, I will say 35", I just think time is running out to end up normal. If we do that would be great, if we have another February miracle that would be great too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Will be great to bump in mid-April though fwiw for anyone who does want to make a serious guess, climo from Jan 11th onward is 28". Lol its the almost the same here as well.. Skilling posted a graphic saying we still have 73% to go in terms of average snowfall.. Edit: Yep its 27.1" climo for here from now on.. Nice graphic below showing how we have still only gone through a FRACTION of the season so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Will be great to bump in mid-April though fwiw for anyone who does want to make a serious guess, climo from Jan 11th onward is 28". I made my guess on the next two weeks seeing that a maybe uneventful snowfall wise. I do think another 18.8" might be a little conservative considering Feb/March have been quite eventful here in past bad winters. So its a risk for me to say 25.5" but I will run with it. Hopefully we bump this thread in April so I can face palm my prediction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 84.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Why not? 6.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 44.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 84.4" back loaded winter for the ages Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 back loaded winter for the ages We'll get a legendary 20+ incher in early april, but the sun will melt it all the next day so the snow cover weenies still lose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 69.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Another troll thread made by an admitted troll. Go back to the tower Quasimodo. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Go back to the tower Quasimodo. Lol Good post please post more like these... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 While I plan on lowering my call of 55" from the Fall, I really would like to wait until Feb 1st to see where we are and where we are likely headed. As said, if we get exactly climo the rest of the way (28"), that would put DTW at 34.7". There are several scenarios going through my head...the season sits at 6.7" thru Jan 11th. Option #1) It is very very, VERY common, esp in a Nina winter to have at least one month be abnormally snowy. Its not a guarentee, but its extremely likely. Now if you double your April average, thats less than 4" of snow. If you double your Feb average thats 21". We have had quite the phenomena streak going in Februaries since 2007, esp 2008, 2010, 2011. So it would only be fitting if Feb is the month that produces. I will go climo the rest of Jan (which will still put us below for the month as a whole), double climo Feb, and climo Mar and Apr. This will be about 39" more snowfall thanks to a 21" Feb, and that will put us at 45-46" on the season. Option #2) We basically ride climo the rest of the way, not above, not below, and end up at 34-35". Option #3) This option I consider BY FAR the LEAST likely, Im only doing it to humor those who think a bad start to winter, plus being due for a bad winter = a bad winter. We go half climo the rest of the way (14") which leaves us at 20-21" total. This is least likely for a number of reasons. La Ninas have an extremely high probability of seeing above normal precip, so even if its not sticking around long, snow will be falling over the next 3 months. Also, I give us a 95% chance at going into a pattern change of a persistent period of abnormal cold at SOMETIME during the remaining 3 months of the cold season. Now, late March and April cold with "stat-padding" snowfall is not what anyone wants, though it has happened before. Lets hope for all that this cold/snowy period occurs in Feb (though I wouldnt mind March). Option #4) This option is also imo very unlikely (though not as unlikely as #3). Over 50" of snow fell in Feb/Mar 2008. Nearly 60" fell in Feb/Mar 1900. Its possible that we still do see some crazy backend loaded winter to still push us near 60". Again, very unlikely, but if you are going to take two extremely unlikely scenarios (#3 and #4), the determining factor for me would be what kind of "snow cycle" have you been in recently....and clearly thats a snowy one here. Right now, i would give the percentages... #1) 50% #2) 40% #3) 4% #4) 6% Will make a call feb 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 45. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 somewhere between option #2) and 3 is where my gut money would be. option #1 has all my possesions on craigslist to take down the champ.. I love me some underdogs and this one is too much easy pointing money.. I'm up for another 20 bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 13, 2012 Author Share Posted January 13, 2012 27 inches! FTW. Not banking on the clipper or the rinse wash repeat next week. Maybe around Valentines day we can sneak a 5-7 inch winter weather advisory in. Watch we get a Early Spring Blizzard just in time when everyone is getting sick of winter. March 1st most/some of the non weenies check out on winter and embrace severe. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 19.5 inches. First sub 20 inch winter since 1969. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 38.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 13, 2012 Share Posted January 13, 2012 whatever they have now + 8.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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