hawkeye_wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Have to feel pretty good about getting minimum 4 inches here now that the Euro has boosted CR to 0.4" precip. The 00z comeback has been a nice surprise. Our no 1" snowfall streak finally ends after 11 months, 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Have to feel pretty good about getting minimum 4 inches here now that the Euro has boosted CR to 0.4" precip. The 00z comeback has been a nice surprise. Looks pretty good for you man. New RUC has you near 10" on this map lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Here is my official snow forecast! For more go to: http://midwestweathertalk.blogspot.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 3/4 mile visibility in Iowa City now. The band over eastern Iowa continues to enhance and look more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Here is my official snow forecast! For more go to: http://midwestweathe...k.blogspot.com/ Not to be picky, but looks like you're low-balling LaCrosse down to Cedar Rapids on the western edge lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks pretty good for you man. New RUC has you near 10" on this map lol. Yeah, it would be something if we got a surprise dumping like that. I'll stick with an expectation of about 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like the storm is determined on making my late afternoon flight from DTX to MSN risky, though I'm not sure since I'm not an expert on snow clearing techniques at MSN. HRRR says the storm will max out from 5 am to 4 pm. My flight is supposed to land at 4 pm, so right after the most accumulation. Any opinions stebo? Also, I'm pumped to fly over this mid-latitude cyclone if we do end up going. Many photos to be taken. If not, I'll use this forum as a log while I try to survive Detroit. Survive Detroit... lol plus its DTW not DTX. Also what airlines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 More pretty pictures! Same time period, different WRF model run precip totals: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not to be picky, but looks like you're low-balling LaCrosse down to Cedar Rapids on the western edge lol. Yah i am probably going to be off by 10-20 miles, the snow developed more rapidly then models thought early today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Survive Detroit... lol plus its DTW not DTX. Also what airlines? Sorry lol, it's been a long day. Delta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 More pretty pictures! Same time period, different WRF model run precip totals: lol yeah il take .70" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Sorry lol, it's been a long day. Delta. You should be fine, unless its a small plane. Worst case scenario you get delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 CMC showing .25"-.5" for much of wisconsin and northern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thundersnow12, congrats to you definitely for getting to intern with Skilling. He's a great guy and certainly will give you quite a few pointers when it comes to meteorology. I conversed with him often when I was in school at NIU. It will certainly be an experience to remember and cherish. I do like that DVN is finally highlighting was I was talking about earlier today with the possibility of a narrow band of heavier snow from the Quad Cities up through Dubuque...~30mi either side of this line. Going to be some surprise totals approaching 7-8" likely...with widespread 4-6" totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 00z Euro is following the CMC and GFS (NAM slightly higher) they show a solid .3"-.5" from wisconsin to northern IL, with snow ratios around 15:1-17:1 4-8" looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thundersnow12, congrats to you definitely for getting to intern with Skilling. He's a great guy and certainly will give you quite a few pointers when it comes to meteorology. I conversed with him often when I was in school at NIU. It will certainly be an experience to remember and cherish. . Thank you sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Can definitely tell the ceiling's dropping here already. The sky has a brighter look to it. Down to 28 as the colder air continues to pour in. Looks like it will start snowing in about 2hrs. Time for bed, good luck everyone, I'm outta here till tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 lol yeah il take .70" here. Yeah I'll take that too, especially given this winter. Best thing is that I dont' have to go anywhere tomorrow today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thank you sir! Yeah congrats on the internship sounds like it will be a lot of fun, certainly a great Met to learn from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Had fun again in IDV. A nice little patch of Frontogenesis around Chicago area at 925mb on the 05z RUC. This looks to be aiding in some enhanced lift in the area. We'll have to watch it and see how it plays out. The FGEN is at a pretty low level in that area, and when viewed in a cross section, there is not so much tilt to it implying more of a statically stable atmosphere which indeed is the case when looking at BUFKIT time/height profiles of theta-e. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Pretty crazy how slow the thing is moving later in the afternoon. RUC moving the H7 low from MLI-GBG in 3 hours. Also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thundersnow are those graphics depicting lift? Actually its heights I'm guessing... Slower moving...next forecast disussion might be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thundersnow are those graphics depicting lift? Actually its heights I'm guessing... Slower moving...next forecast disussion might be interesting. Both Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UW-weather Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 06z NAM shows about the same snows, but has 9-12" in east IA...im not buying this at all. 3-6" maybe 7" seems more realistic there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 6z nam looks much better for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 portion of the LOT afd... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1 INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF THE HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MESOSCALE BANDING OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. SHOULD THAT OCCUR IT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL HARD TO ENVISION A BAND OF SNOWFALL TOTALS IN 8-12 INCH RANGE...PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO PIVOT POINT WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL SIT THE LONGEST AS THE ORIENTATION GOES FROM WNW-ESE TO MORE NE-SW TONIGHT. REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THOSE TYPE OF MESO-BETA SCALE TYPE PHENOMENA THIS FAR IN ADVANCE SO RATHER THAN BLANKETING 23 COUNTIES WITH A WARNING WHEN ITD PROBABLY ONLY BE A FRACTION OF THOSE REACH CRITERIA HAVE OPTED TO LET THE ADVISORY RIDE WITH 4-8 INCH AMOUNTS AND JUST MENTION LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE WSW. AS MESOSCALE DETAILS START TO UNFOLD LATER TODAY ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 portion of the LOT afd... INTERESTINGLY...SOME OF THE HI-RES MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MESOSCALE BANDING OF HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPING BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF OUR CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC CIRCULATION. SHOULD THAT OCCUR IT WOULD NOT BE AT ALL HARD TO ENVISION A BAND OF SNOWFALL TOTALS IN 8-12 INCH RANGE...PARTICULARLY CLOSE TO PIVOT POINT WHERE HEAVIER SNOW BAND WILL SIT THE LONGEST AS THE ORIENTATION GOES FROM WNW-ESE TO MORE NE-SW TONIGHT. REALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO PINPOINT THOSE TYPE OF MESO-BETA SCALE TYPE PHENOMENA THIS FAR IN ADVANCE SO RATHER THAN BLANKETING 23 COUNTIES WITH A WARNING WHEN ITD PROBABLY ONLY BE A FRACTION OF THOSE REACH CRITERIA HAVE OPTED TO LET THE ADVISORY RIDE WITH 4-8 INCH AMOUNTS AND JUST MENTION LOCALLY HEAVIER TOTALS IN THE WSW. AS MESOSCALE DETAILS START TO UNFOLD LATER TODAY ITS POSSIBLE THAT THE DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY TO A WARNING. agree with this, RUC has been consistenly hammering ne IL east of DKB and along north of 80. Banding just sits over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 6z GFS wetter, pops a small .25" contour at both 21z/0z east of DKB and then over Alek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Getting blasted here. Vis around 1/4 mile atm. Approaching 1" pretty quick with small, but very numerous flakes. Looks like shattered dendrites and a few intact plates. The automated sensors are giving readings that are quite a bit too optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Riding my 8.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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