Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 was that the winter of that decent tornado from McHenry Co into Wisc? that was '08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 that was '08. I should leave the historical reminiscing to the pros Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Still like my coating - 2" based on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Congratz Cyclone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 1.0 to 2.5" for SEMI on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Hearing on Accuweather Forums that the 00Z NAM isn't looking as great. Oh well... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not too bad for central IN,OH dry area. Same as 18z pretty much everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Congratz Cyclone! Damn! Verbatim that'd be 8" here, and 9" for Hawk. Probably overdone, but makes me feel better about maybe exceeding 5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 1.0 to 2.5" for SEMI on this run Boy I would like to take a drive to South Haven tomorrow & stay the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 the run was wetter overall...a nice stop to the slow bleeding that was 12-18z indeed. 0.50" at ord this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yes another map but this one is a hgher def, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 indeed. 0.49" at ord this run. What about Marion or OKK??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 0z Nam .48 for KORD and MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Its a dragon. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 ILSNOW= What does 0z NAM show for LSE? 18z was pretty good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 What about Marion or OKK??? This is a good place to get extracted data if you don't have BUFKIT http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Looks like .43 for OKK through 48 hours but some of that is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 .47 ILSNOW= What does 0z NAM show for LSE? 18z was pretty good here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Thanks...shows .47 for LSE> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is a good place to get extracted data if you don't have BUFKIT http://wxcaster.com/models_text.htm Looks like .43 for OKK through 48 hours but some of that is rain. Typed in OKK, but did not work...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Typed in OKK, but did not work...lol KOKK Ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Typed in OKK, but did not work...lol You need to type KOKK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 845 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012 .DISCUSSION... 840 PM CST AN INITIAL ANALYSIS HAS BEEN MADE OF 00Z UPPER AIR DATA AS WELL AS THE 12.00 NAM AND 11.21 SREF. HAVE MADE MODIFICATIONS TO THE START TIME OF THE SNOWFALL WHERE CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED...BUT THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY START TIMES STILL LOOK VALID. RIGHT NOW THE AREA IS NICELY LOCATED UNDER A WEDGE OF SUPPRESSION AND DRY AIR BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND THE INCOMING DIGGING TROUGH AND ARCTIC FRONT. THIS SHOULD HOLD FOR A WHILE AND LATEST GUIDANCE HAS CAUGHT ONTO THIS WITH SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE POST-FRONTAL FORCING AND SNOW ACROSS IA AND INTO WESTERN MO. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST...TURNING WINDS NORTHWEST AND BRINGING THE TEMPERATURES DOWN. ALREADY THE CLEARING HAS ALLOWED FOR COOLING...AND THERE IS ALMOST NO DOUBT THAT PRECIPITATION TYPE ONSET WILL BE SNOW GIVEN THE COOLING COLUMN. THE NAM/RUC FORCING AND HRRR REFLECTIVITY HAVE FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION STILL WEST OF INTERSTATE 39 BY 12Z...AND STILL WEST OF CHICAGOLAND BY 15Z. THE SREF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALSO HAVE A TIGHTER PACKING THROUGH 15Z FOR INCREASED CONFIDENCE...AND THIS PACKING IS ON A SLOWER SOLUTION. HAVE ADDED HIGHER TEMPORAL RESOLUTION POPS TO BETTER DEFINE THE ONSET TIME. A NICE -37C 500MB COLD POCKET ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND THE PHASING OF THE SYSTEMS WILL RAPIDLY BEGIN. LARGE SCALE OMEGA INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA WITH SATURATION WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS CHICAGOLAND AND NORTHWEST IN. SO ONSET IN CHICAGOLAND STILL LOOKS TO BE PRIOR TO NOON...AND LIKELY BETWEEN 9 AM AND NOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA CONTINUES TO BE THE PERIOD MOST FAVORED FOR HEAVIER SNOW. THIS IS BECAUSE OF 1. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 2. THE TIGHTEST MID- LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT SUPPORTING TEMPORARY BURSTS OF MODERATE/HEAVY ACTIVITY WITHIN BANDS 3. SNOW-TO-WATER EFFICIENCIES INCREASING WITH A COOLING COLUMN AND DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 PM...AND 4. LAKE ENHANCED SUPPORT INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA /WHICH ACTUALLY CONTINUES INTO THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS IS THE AREA THAT WILL BE PARTICULARLY WATCHED FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING IN TIME. THE ONLY CHANGE WITH THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON PORTION OF THE FORECAST WAS TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. AMOUNTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA COULD BE PRETTY HOMOGENEOUS...WITH TEMPORARY BURSTS/BANDS SUPPORTING LOCALIZED HIGHER AREAS. THE SLOWER ONSET TIME MAY MEAN LESS SNOWFALL IN THE MORNING ACROSS THE SOUTH THOUGH...SO OVERALL FORECAST AMOUNTS CAME OUT FAIRLY CLOSE...WITH NO CHANGES FOR CHICAGOLAND ON TOTALS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The NAM is so close to an insane DGZ here for the 2nd half of the event. 800mb temps stay right around -10 C. A bit colder and we are talking a 350mb DGZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Its a dragon. lol Someone is a fan of skyrim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Man, smells like snow outside. Love it. 2/3/1983 looks like a nice match on the CIPS analog site. '83 SLP was a bit west - nice snow totals with that storm... http://www.eas.slu.e...2&dt=1983020306 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 In case anyone missed my snow tracking thread in the main forum - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Man, smells like snow outside. Love it. 2/3/1983 looks like a nice match on the CIPS analog site. '83 SLP was a bit west - nice snow totals with that storm... http://www.eas.slu.e...2&dt=1983020306 Yikes! That totally is a miss for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 DVN just issued another update. Decided to hold off upgrading to a warning for now and wait and see if/where the best mesoscale forcing sets up. ONCE AGAIN...A ROUGHLY 60 MILE WIDE SWATH OF OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING/DRIFTING...STRETCHING FROM MERCER AND HENRY COUNTY JUST SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES...TO DELAWARE DUBUQUE COUNTIES IN THE NORTH. THIS REMAINS THE MOST LIKELY AREA THAT MAY REACH OR EXCEED WARNING CRITERIA BASED ON THE LATEST DATA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yikes! That totally is a miss for me. Storm cancel. LAF and OKK...0.0". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Update from ILX. Nice discussion. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 845 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 845 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012 QUICK GLANCE AT THE 00Z NAM...AS WELL AS THE HRRR AND RUC MODELS... INDICATES NO BIG CHANGES NEEDED TO HEADLINES OR SNOW SCENARIO FORECAST. COLD FRONT NOW APPROACHING THE IL RIVER WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS. RADARS INDICATE THE SNOW IS LAGGING BACK OVER CENTRAL IA...SO NO POPS THIS EVENING STILL LOOK ON TRACK. THE NAM AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SNOW REACHING THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOWING THE DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS...WITH INCREASING INFLECTION OVER NEB BEING THE BEGINNINGS OF THE LOW CLOSING OFF. THE EXPANDING DARK AREA ON SATELLITE ALONG THE TROF AXIS AND DOWN INTO THE INFLECTION OVER SOUTHERN NEB AND NORTHWESTERN KS SUGGESTS THAT STRATOSPHERIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY IS POKING DOWNWARD ON THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH...WHICH WILL ACT TO ACCELERATE THE DEEPENING PROCESS. MOST OF THE SYNOPTIC MODEL OUTPUT AGREES ON TRACKING THE CENTER OF THE DEEPENING UPPER LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF IL FROM LATE MORNING TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY. DURING THAT TIME...PV AND DIFLUENCE WILL BE ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN QUADRANT AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW...WHICH WILL EXTEND EAST/WEST THROUGH CENTRAL IL. IN ADDITION...ISENTROPIC ANALYSES INDICATE A DECENT UPGLIDE ON THE 300K-290K SURFACES IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA...WITH SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES OF 1.5-2.5 G/KG. SO SNOW AMOUNTS OF 3-5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA STILL LOOK GOOD...WITH POSSIBLE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF SNOW BANDS. WILL FRESHEN UP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY PRODUCT SHORTLY. 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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