snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm in that hole in Ontario with the less than 10% probability. That's about as literal as a donut hole you can get. It's true. We suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Impressive RUC simulation radar. Looks like convective snow and lake enhancement - maybe some thunder snow with that!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Impressive RUC simulation radar. Looks like convective snow and lake enhancement - maybe some thunder snow with that!? Yep just as Justin alluded to in his post above^.. Going to be some surprises for sure with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 FWIW I hope that band in east KY,TN moves right up through central OH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 My guess back around Xmas time or just before was the pattern would start changing between the 10-15th of January and that seems to be working out well with the upcoming snow/cold. This will definitely not be the last system for many, many folks on this board. Even the big monster snow storms only tend to plaster an area maybe 150mi wide. So someone always wins and loses when talking about the max snow band. We have plenty of Winter left...and if anything I think we'll see two or three pretty big snowstorms in the next month- month and a half, lots of clippers, and a few meh snows where folks won't get in the heaviest band but still get something decent. Now that the pattern is trying to undergo changes we'll see a lot of back and forth on models, probably see brief shots of seasonal warmth between cold shots, and storms on the front edge of those cold shots, probably have an ice storm sprinkeled in too as something comes in as the cold tries to briefly pull out. I think things will be fun the rest of the way, progressive pattern seems to be the rule but when things marry up in the atmosphere boy look out. It funny you mention Ice storm. I was talking with some people at work today about it. Seems like one of those years that there will be a pretty good one. Maybe not IMBY but I would not be surprised if we do see a significant Ice Storm yet this winter/spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 DTX going with 2-3", locally 4" throughout SE MI. Seems like it will be a longduration light snow event based on what Im seeing. Should easily be our 2nd best if not best snowfall of the season (Dec 5th saw 2.4" imby and 3.4" at DTW, mostly all on grass). It does look to stay fairly "mild" tomorrow night, but Im sure we will FINALLY be able to shovel! Whats funny is both my parents and aunt bought really neat snowblowers this past Fall (my parents first ever), after so many years of heavy snow they figured its time. Now if only they could get to use them lol!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 DTX going with 2-3", locally 4" throughout SE MI. Seems like it will be a longduration light snow event based on what Im seeing. Should easily be our 2nd best if not best snowfall of the season (Dec 5th saw 2.4" imby and 3.4", mostly all on grass). It does look to stay fairly "mild" tomorrow night, but Im sure we will FINALLY be able to shovel! Whats funny is both my parents and aunt bought really neat snowblowers this past Fall (my parents first ever), after so many years of heavy snow they figured its time. Now if only they could get to use them lol!!! Somehow IWX is only calling for 1-3" for NWOH... I almost feel like I'm missing something given the NAM/GFS/ECM all show a general 3-5/iso 6" amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yep just as Justin alluded to in his post above^.. Going to be some surprises for sure with this one I keep laughing at your sig picture, is that guy JB? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Somehow IWX is only calling for 1-3" for NWOH... I almost feel like I'm missing something given the NAM/GFS/ECM all show a general 3-5/iso 6" amounts They will up it probaly if it is the same on the models on the 6z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Somehow IWX is only calling for 1-3" for NWOH... I almost feel like I'm missing something given the NAM/GFS/ECM all show a general 3-5/iso 6" amounts Whats funny is both DTX and I think either MKE or LOT mentioned the long duration aspect of the snow, citing that snowfall totals may look a little less at the end from settling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 DTX going with 2-3", locally 4" throughout SE MI. Seems like it will be a longduration light snow event based on what Im seeing. Should easily be our 2nd best if not best snowfall of the season (Dec 5th saw 2.4" imby and 3.4" at DTW, mostly all on grass). It does look to stay fairly "mild" tomorrow night, but Im sure we will FINALLY be able to shovel! Whats funny is both my parents and aunt bought really neat snowblowers this past Fall (my parents first ever), after so many years of heavy snow they figured its time. Now if only they could get to use them lol!!! That is funny as I know 2 people that bought snowblowers and 1 guy who bought a John Deer with a plow on front. They all think they are the reason this winter has sucked so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Whats funny is both DTX and I think either MKE or LOT mentioned the long duration aspect of the snow, citing that snowfall totals may look a little less at the end from settling. I hope we get a surprise with this one... you never know.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 Earlier today Alek mentioned about going from 50's to snow tomorrow and I said it must be pretty uncommon for Chicago to get a lot of snow a day after being in the 50's. I checked the records and since 1942, I can only find 3 storms of 6"+ that began within 24 hours after hitting 50 degrees. They are 3/29/54, 4/15-17/1961 and 3/24-26/1969. Several others were pretty close but either missed the snow or time requirement. In case anyone is wondering, regarding the January 1967 blizzard, snow began approximately 30 hours after the temperature was 50 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Whats funny is both DTX and I think either MKE or LOT mentioned the long duration aspect of the snow, citing that snowfall totals may look a little less at the end from settling. I think that was MKE. Settling and the wind will cause measuring issues. Winds are supposed to be gusts around 35mph, especially near the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Earlier today Alek mentioned about going from 50's to snow tomorrow and I said it must be pretty uncommon for Chicago to get a lot of snow a day after being in the 50's. I checked the records and since 1942, I can only find 3 storms of 6"+ that began within 24 hours after hitting 50 degrees. They are 3/29/54, 4/15-17/1961 and 3/24-26/1969. Several others were pretty close but either missed the snow or time requirement. In case anyone is wondering, regarding the January 1967 blizzard, snow began approximately 30 hours after the temperature was 50 degrees. Damn...that's interesting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like band in eastern ohio is a lock now, how close it gets to my area east of columbus is another question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Earlier today Alek mentioned about going from 50's to snow tomorrow and I said it must be pretty uncommon for Chicago to get a lot of snow a day after being in the 50's. I checked the records and since 1942, I can only find 3 storms of 6"+ that began within 24 hours after hitting 50 degrees. They are 3/29/54, 4/15-17/1961 and 3/24-26/1969. Several others were pretty close but either missed the snow or time requirement. In case anyone is wondering, regarding the January 1967 blizzard, snow began approximately 30 hours after the temperature was 50 degrees. When we bring up situations like that, the 11/30-12/1 storm of 2006 pops in my head. Granted it wasn't a day before, I believe we were quite warm two days before. I think near 60 on 11/29 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Kinda sad how I am addicted to looking at almost all the model runs, hoping that the low will move east! Still find this system odd. Usually a low that takes this track is a miller B and the coastal steals the energy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wow, I'm diggin' this. Update from DVN... .UPDATE... MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR...NAM12...AND RUC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MUCH STRONGER FORCING ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE 10Z TO 20Z PERIOD THURSDAY. OUR BROAD ADVISORY STILL LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK WITH A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT...WITH PLENTY OF WIND/CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING ISSUES EXPECTED. I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE EXPECTED MORE INTENSE BAND IN OUR WSW PRODUCTS ON THE LATEST UPDATE...AS SHOULD THIS VERIFY...A NARROW AXIS OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM GENERALLY THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA TO DUBUQUE. AN UPGRADE TO WARNING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IF UPPER AIR DATA AND NEW 00Z MODEL DATA SHOW THIS SIMILAR SIGNATURE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHAT IS ALREADY BEING DESCRIBED AS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...IN OUR PRODUCTS. ..ERVIN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Hearing on Accuweather Forums that the 00Z NAM isn't looking as great. Oh well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Hearing on Accuweather Forums that the 00Z NAM isn't looking as great. Oh well... Only one run. It WILL change for the better or worse before the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 A friend posted Weatherpimp's (Brandon) call on Facebook: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Hearing on Accuweather Forums that the 00Z NAM isn't looking as great. Oh well... looks great IMBY, good deal wetter overall than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 12, 2012 Author Share Posted January 12, 2012 When we bring up situations like that, the 11/30-12/1 storm of 2006 pops in my head. Granted it wasn't a day before, I believe we were quite warm two days before. I think near 60 on 11/29 here. Yeah I checked that one out. High at ORD was 60 and snow started about 29 hours after being at 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wow, I'm diggin' this. Update from DVN... .UPDATE... MESOSCALE MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR...NAM12...AND RUC ALL CONTINUE TO SHOW A NARROW BAND OF MUCH STRONGER FORCING ALIGNED ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE 10Z TO 20Z PERIOD THURSDAY. OUR BROAD ADVISORY STILL LOOKS VERY MUCH ON TRACK WITH A WIDESPREAD 3 TO 5 INCH SNOWFALL EVENT...WITH PLENTY OF WIND/CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING ISSUES EXPECTED. I HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THE EXPECTED MORE INTENSE BAND IN OUR WSW PRODUCTS ON THE LATEST UPDATE...AS SHOULD THIS VERIFY...A NARROW AXIS OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL OF 5 TO 8 INCHES IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 MILES EITHER SIDE OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM GENERALLY THE QUAD CITIES METRO AREA TO DUBUQUE. AN UPGRADE TO WARNING IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING IF UPPER AIR DATA AND NEW 00Z MODEL DATA SHOW THIS SIMILAR SIGNATURE...INCREASING CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHAT IS ALREADY BEING DESCRIBED AS...LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...IN OUR PRODUCTS. ..ERVIN.. Yep the NAM shows the narrow area of higher Snows nicely near the QC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looking good for la crosse, Chicago, southen MI and areas south.. Trend pretty eh here since 6z and I'll go with 3.2" for final call and LAF gets more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Yeah I checked that one out. High at ORD was 60 and snow started about 29 hours after being at 50. was that the winter of that decent tornado from McHenry Co into Wisc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not sure if LAF gets to 0.25" QPF (of snow) on the NAM. 2-4", locked and loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 0z NAM favoring the west side of the Mississippi, with 0.50"+ QPF in a narrow band. the run was wetter overall...a nice stop to the slow bleeding that was 12-18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.