cyclone77 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 3-5" for here looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll post the 18z nam clown map as it most likely presents a best case scenario for us Ohioans. Lock it 6-8 inches would great. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Latest from my WRF run - multiple amounts by 1.5 or so to get from a 10:1 to 15:1 ratio that seems reasonable. That gives me 4 or 5 inches. Do you have a link to that model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 18z RGEM takes it down to 985 mb over Lake Huron. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Latest LOT map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 18z RGEM takes it down to 985 mb over Lake Huron. geez still snowing good here by 6z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Latest LOT map... I have the over for 5" at ORD with Caplan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is looking more and more like a run of the mill 3" event. I'll take it, but I also wish it didn't have to peak right when my flight is coming in. I'm sure Madison airport can handle this little thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 12z SPC 4km WRF...simulated reflectivity is worth a loop. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/12/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I have the over for 5" at ORD with Caplan. i would go over for now, but it depends what 0z guidance shows. i rode the low side of my first call of 5-9", so I have room to adjust downward for a smaller range if needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'll go with 3-6" here, probably on the lower end though. NAM/ECM would be towards the higher side, but I'm skeptical of everything right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going with 3-7 for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going with 3-7 for Detroit. Ok aawrong henry margursity. We'll be lucky to see any accumulation. Sun will be out in the eye of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Ok aawrong henry margursity. We'll be lucky to see any accumulation. Sun will be out in the eye of the storm. I'm sorry I forgot to put the "CM".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 From Dan's WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going with 3-7 for Detroit. You feel ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going with 3-7 for Detroit. Ballsy Ok aawrong henry margursity. We'll be lucky to see any accumulation. Sun will be out in the eye of the storm. ...also ballsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going with 3-7 for Detroit. "CM" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 New HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Curious to see if we will be surrounded by advisories. I can see almost the whole midwest under a advisory except for metro detroit counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Curious to see if we will be surrounded by advisories. I can see almost the whole midwest under a advisory except for metro detroit counties. Won't happen, even with a 2-4" snowfall combined with wind potentials we will see an advisory. I am going with 2-5" right now, if trends go either way I'll revise in either direction. Also I don't see the sun coming out mid storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I'm going with 3-7 for Detroit. Is that mm or cm? Ok aawrong henry margursity. We'll be lucky to see any accumulation. Sun will be out in the eye of the storm. I'm totally going to bump this on Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Is that mm or cm? So funny I started choking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 With the strength of the upper air system, moisture that is available, good snow growth, good track of upper air system, Omega/DGZ, etc.. I like a general 3-5" snow widespread over areas East of La Crosse-Cedar Rapids-Mount Pleasant-Galesburg. Even over through Ohio-Southeast Lower Michigan I think many places there will make out okay with at least 2-4". May see a few pockets close to 6" over extreme Northeast Iowa/Northwest Illinois/Extreme Southwest Wisconsin where the models seem to put in a little pocket of some extra lift and hang the snow in a bit. Then probably another pocket of 5-8" over Southeast Wisconsin/Northeast IL again with good lift/Omega's/Deep DGZ zone/moisture hanging on behind system longer. Going to be quite a dynamic system and I also wonder about the threat of a few isolated Thundersnow reports especially over Northern Illinois....that could play havoc with the snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 New HPC I'm in that hole in Ontario with the less than 10% probability. That's about as literal as a donut hole you can get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Stole this from Victor Gensini from our COD forum site and thought I'd share his thoughts here. "Will be interesting to see snow totals out of tomorrows "clipper" type system. Typically it is *very* hard to get over 8" of the good stuff with the moisture starved trajectory of such a system. However, with a nearly 450mb deep dendritic growth zone (I've outlined this area in white), I've seen some crazy things happen. Lift is best in this region right at onset, but still respectable through the remainder of the event. I think that places out to the west and southwest have a much better shot at seeing 8" because of the much faster transition to colder maxT profiles. Just compare the DPA and PIA forecast soundings from the NAM... Additionally, the eWRF soundings (shown below) show great agreement re: dendrite growth zone depth, liq. equivalent, and omega. Still, I can see some people being caught off guard/surprised by this event, especially since it is the first "major" snowfall of the season." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Newest RGEM is a step in the right direction for parts of IN OH and Semi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 With the strength of the upper air system, moisture that is available, good snow growth, good track of upper air system, Omega/DGZ, etc.. I like a general 3-5" snow widespread over areas East of La Crosse-Cedar Rapids-Mount Pleasant-Galesburg. Even over through Ohio-Southeast Lower Michigan I think many places there will make out okay with at least 2-4". May see a few pockets close to 6" over extreme Northeast Iowa/Northwest Illinois/Extreme Southwest Wisconsin where the models seem to put in a little pocket of some extra lift and hang the snow in a bit. Then probably another pocket of 5-8" over Southeast Wisconsin/Northeast IL again with good lift/Omega's/Deep DGZ zone/moisture hanging on behind system longer. Going to be quite a dynamic system and I also wonder about the threat of a few isolated Thundersnow reports especially over Northern Illinois....that could play havoc with the snow amounts. Hopefully T-Snow12 can finally get to see some.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looking forward to my 3rd commute in winter storm conditions this (insert adjective here depending on your location) winter. Might be knarly fri am too (fingers crossed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is our first true snowstorm of the year. How sad. Hopefully it isn't the last. My guess back around Xmas time or just before was the pattern would start changing between the 10-15th of January and that seems to be working out well with the upcoming snow/cold. This will definitely not be the last system for many, many folks on this board. Even the big monster snow storms only tend to plaster an area maybe 150mi wide. So someone always wins and loses when talking about the max snow band. We have plenty of Winter left...and if anything I think we'll see two or three pretty big snowstorms in the next month- month and a half, lots of clippers, and a few meh snows where folks won't get in the heaviest band but still get something decent. Now that the pattern is trying to undergo changes we'll see a lot of back and forth on models, probably see brief shots of seasonal warmth between cold shots, and storms on the front edge of those cold shots, probably have an ice storm sprinkeled in too as something comes in as the cold tries to briefly pull out. I think things will be fun the rest of the way, progressive pattern seems to be the rule but when things marry up in the atmosphere boy look out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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