PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 IWX not going with a WWA for there southern counties??? Amazing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 National Weather Service in Grand Rapids just hoisted Winter Storm Watches for their County Warning Area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Yes, interesting between IWX and IND....IND 2-4" or 3-5" depending on where within central IN, but IWX saying 1-3" for their southern and southeast counties.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Starting to wonder if IND and IWX are coordinating finally. No AFD from either one of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Starting to wonder if IND and IWX are coordinating finally. No AFD from either one of them... IND posted one earlier today and updated the long term a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Interesting what will happen if the ull digs down to Memphis(quite close already). If this storm taps into the stj, all hell will break loose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 IND posted one earlier today and updated the long term a few hours ago. Yeah, but they haven't updated the near term/short term which is the time frame for the accumulating snow expected Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wow NWS La Crosse has me in 3-7 inches in the zone forecast right now. Just updated. That is quite bullish based on what current models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 All the models have pulled the snow band eastward a bit faster in today's runs, so they all have CR on the back edge of the 0.25" precip. That should still be good for a few inches. I'm enjoying the warm weather, but it'll be nice to see snow and drifting for the first time in quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Interesting what will happen if the ull digs down to Memphis(quite close already). If this storm taps into the stj, all hell will break loose. Memphis? What are you looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 DTX calling for all rain until Thur 10pm then mixing with snow.. and a low of 30...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 From the NWS in Northern Indiana AFD,at 411 pm today... STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY PER THE AMOUNT OF LAKE MI MODIFICATION TO PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH THERMAL FIELD UNCERTAINTY SUPPORTS RIDING THE WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND. WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH WITH AN SPS...WITH AN ADV LIKELY FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THUR NIGHT...SW AREAS TO NE AS CAA INTENSIFIES WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LL GEOSTROPHIC WIND. EXPECT INCREASING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WITH HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT MANY AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Memphis? What are you looking at? 18z NAM actually does dig it down to Memphis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 From the NWS in Northern Indiana AFD,at 411 pm today... STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY PER THE AMOUNT OF LAKE MI MODIFICATION TO PRECIP. THIS COMBINED WITH THERMAL FIELD UNCERTAINTY SUPPORTS RIDING THE WATCH FOR ANOTHER ROUND. WILL HIGHLIGHT AREAS OUTSIDE THE WATCH WITH AN SPS...WITH AN ADV LIKELY FOR MANY OF THESE AREAS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THUR NIGHT...SW AREAS TO NE AS CAA INTENSIFIES WITH THE ISALLOBARIC WIND NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE LL GEOSTROPHIC WIND. EXPECT INCREASING AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WITH HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS AT MANY AREAS. Quite a bit of disagreement between IND and IWX. IND calling for changeover for Indianapolis by early afternoon. IWX saying changeover will hold off until evening... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM THU 15Z - FRI 18Z. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHWEST/WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND THU 15Z. ESTIMATED TRANSITION TIME FOR THE INDY METRO IS THU 18Z...AND FINALLY SNOW ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL INDIANA BY MID AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT BEST TIME FRAME FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE FRI 00-06Z. BEST QVECTOR CONVERGENCE AND FRONTOGENETIC BANDING WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF FORECAST AREA...WHICH CAN EXPECT ABOUT 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. FURTHER SOUTH...WENT WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 18z NAM actually does dig it down to Memphis Looks more like southeast Missouri to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Theoretically speaking, and the SJT gets involved... would that deepen the storm more and push it NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sumner, per their AFD, IWX says southern counties will likely get an adv for this event, they're just holding off. So you can relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Sumney, per their AFD, IWX says southern counties will likely get an adv for this event, they're just holding off. So you can relax. I know, I know. I just wish they would do it already. Gets me all stressed out! I am way too addicted to snow and weather in general! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks more like southeast Missouri to me. I am going by the vort max location, I assume you are going by the 500mb heights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 Try to refrain from the emoticon only posts or stuff like "the GFS is running." It wastes space without really adding anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NIce Columbus dryslot on 18z GFS. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 NIce Columbus dryslot on 18z GFS. lol trend though....both nam and gfs are much more snowy for OH than they have been, especially in eastern areas. 18z NAM is easy advisory snow for cmh this may be our best chance all winter, I'm getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 New LOT discussion lays everything out nicely at what the expect: 000 FXUS63 KLOT 112053 AFDLOT AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 253 PM CST WED JAN 11 2012 .DISCUSSION... 243 PM CST WINTER STORM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... HAVE ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WHICH WILL COVER THE CWA FOR THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CARVE OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS TONIGHT/THURSDAY...WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRE-EXISTING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT NORTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING UPPER LOW...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL BAROCLINICITY WITH INTRUSION OF LOW LEVEL ARCTIC AIR. UPPER DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET STREAK WILL ALSO AID IN DEVELOPING DEEP SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE THE AREA. 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTION OF EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...SAVE FOR SOME QPF DIFFERENCES...WITH THE WRF-NAM BEING MORE GENEROUS WITH THE PRECIP/SNOW AMOUNTS. GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT THE GREATEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS NORTHEAST IL/NORTHWEST INDIANA WHERE SOME LAKE-ENHANCEMENT POTENTIAL EXISTS...AND WHERE LARGER SCALE DEFORMATION AXIS EVENTUALLY SETS UP AS SYSTEM DEEPENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WHILE FORCING DECREASES QUICKLY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...LIGHTER SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IS/ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD MOST FAVORABLE FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION WILL SLIDE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM MID THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH VERY EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE TRICKY WITH THIS SYSTEM...LARGELY DUE TO DEGREE OF COOLING OF THE COLUMN AS DEPTH OF ARCTIC AIR INCREASES LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS DUE TO AFOREMENTIONED POTENTIAL FOR LAKE-ENHANCEMENT IN COUNTIES BORDERING LAKE MICHIGAN. MODEL SNOW/LIQUID RATIOS RANGE FROM 10:1 AT ONSET...TO 15 OR 20:1 LATER IN THE EVENT. HAVE GENERALLY USED HPC QPF...WITH A LITTLE BLENDING OF WRF OUTPUT...AND RATIOS RANGING FROM 10:1 TO 17:1 THROUGH THE EVENT FOR SNOWFALL FORECAST. THIS YIELDS ROUGHLY 3-5 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CWA...TO 4-6 INCHES FOR NORTHEAST CWA COUNTIES NOT ALONG THE LAKE...TO 4-8 INCHES FOR THE LAKE ADJOINING COUNTIES. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER NEARLY A 24 HOUR PERIOD...THOUGH EXPECT IT WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE 6 INCHES IN 12 HOURS OR 8 INCHES IN 24 HOURS CRITERIA FOR WINTER STORM WARNING. BASED ON THIS...AND COLLABORATION WITH MKX/ILX AND IWX HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND MAY GUST 30-35 MPH THURSDAY NIGHT AS LOW DEEPENS OFF TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW PARTICULARLY IN OPEN/RURAL AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE BLOWING/DRIFTING ISSUES...THESE WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH ARCTIC AIR TO PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE ZERO TO -10 F RANGE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.RATZER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Theoretically speaking, and the SJT gets involved... would that deepen the storm more and push it NW? Deepen is right but as far as track it could pull it in either direction but nothing insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Chad on WLFI calling for around 3" for LAF. I'm liking a 2-4" myself call at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 trend though....both nam and gfs are much more snowy for OH than they have been, especially in eastern areas. 18z NAM is easy advisory snow for cmh this may be our best chance all winter, I'm getting excited. I know hopefully that band in eastern Ohio moves further west. Dry slot is not that dry though still 0.30 precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 All I care about is the lake effect potential... How does that look for Gaylord when all said and done. The synoptic portion of this storm looks weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'll post the 18z nam clown map as it most likely presents a best case scenario for us Ohioans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Latest from my WRF run - multiple amounts by 1.5 or so to get from a 10:1 to 15:1 ratio that seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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