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January 12-14 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier

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I think you may break your 8.5" call. With the meso low coming into play, I could see 10" being a possibility.

Possibly but ratios are probably 8-10:1 right now with warm surface temps...I think i'll pretty much nail it.

EDIT: although if the persistent banding does set up over the area and the meso low moves west, you're right, it might get crazy.

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LOT

1110 AM CST

HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN. RADAR

TRENDS SHOW THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING MORE

WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT LIFT

NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS TO PIVOT COUNTER-CLOCKWISE.

FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BECOME BETTER FOCUSED AS MID LEVEL TROUGH

SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE EAST

AND COLD ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...FOCUSING MAY BE

FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF WARM AIR

ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING BY ITSELF SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL

RATES WILL BE HIGHER FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING

RESULTING IN 4-8 INCH TOTALS IN A SHORTER AMOUNT OF TIME. IN

ADDITION LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOME FORM STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE

THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN. SURFACE

OBS AROUND THE SOUTHERN SHORE STILL SHOW SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION

WITH RADAR SHOWING A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIP

WHICH MAY BE REFLECTIVE MORE OF A ELONGATED CONVERGENCE AREA.

SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC/HRRR SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION

SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE IL SHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OTHER

GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SORT OF SHORELINE CONVERGENCE

DEVELOPING. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR THIS TO CONTINUE IN THE

MIDST OF INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN

SLOWER TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SHOULD THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT/BANDING

OCCUR...AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THEN SOME AREAS COULD EASILY

SEE 8-10 INCHES OR POSSIBLY MORE BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE VERY

LOCALIZED. EVEN WITHOUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT SNOWFALL RATES ARE

EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH

HOUR...WITH IMPACTS MAGNIFIED UNDER ANY LAKE BANDS. GUSTY WINDS

WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH

CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO THE CHICAGO METRO LATE THIS

AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO NW INDIANA.

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LOT

1110 AM CST

HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO A WINTER

STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF NORTHEAST IL AND NORTHWEST IN. RADAR

TRENDS SHOW THE MAIN BAND OF SNOW INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING MORE

WIDESPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AS IT LIFT

NORTHEASTWARD AND BEGINS TO PIVOT COUNTER-CLOCKWISE.

FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BECOME BETTER FOCUSED AS MID LEVEL TROUGH

SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING IN WARM ADVECTION FROM THE EAST

AND COLD ADVECTION FROM THE WEST. IN ADDITION...FOCUSING MAY BE

FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE PRESENCE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF WARM AIR

ALOFT. THIS SYNOPTIC FORCING BY ITSELF SUGGESTS THAT SNOWFALL

RATES WILL BE HIGHER FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING

RESULTING IN 4-8 INCH TOTALS IN A SHORTER AMOUNT OF TIME. IN

ADDITION LAKE ENHANCEMENT IN SOME FORM STILL LOOKS POSSIBLE LATE

THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BE VERY CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN. SURFACE

OBS AROUND THE SOUTHERN SHORE STILL SHOW SIGNS OF A CIRCULATION

WITH RADAR SHOWING A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAND OF PRECIP

WHICH MAY BE REFLECTIVE MORE OF A ELONGATED CONVERGENCE AREA.

SEVERAL RECENT RUNS OF THE RUC/HRRR SHOW A CLOSED CIRCULATION

SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE IL SHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH OTHER

GUIDANCE SHOWING AT LEAST SOME SORT OF SHORELINE CONVERGENCE

DEVELOPING. THE CHALLENGE WILL BE FOR THIS TO CONTINUE IN THE

MIDST OF INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH HAS BEEN

SLOWER TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. SHOULD THIS LAKE ENHANCEMENT/BANDING

OCCUR...AND THIS IS STILL UNCERTAIN...THEN SOME AREAS COULD EASILY

SEE 8-10 INCHES OR POSSIBLY MORE BUT THIS WOULD LIKELY BE VERY

LOCALIZED. EVEN WITHOUT LAKE ENHANCEMENT SNOWFALL RATES ARE

EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING RUSH

HOUR...WITH IMPACTS MAGNIFIED UNDER ANY LAKE BANDS. GUSTY WINDS

WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH

CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INTO THE CHICAGO METRO LATE THIS

AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN INTO NW INDIANA.

beat me to it, you change you call? Still riding my 5-8" for MBY.

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12z ECMWF

Note: I did not include 12-18z totals given we're obviously past that time.

LSE: 0.10"

MSN: 0.28"

MKE: 0.42"

SBM: 0.33"

CID: 0.17"

DVN: 0.20"

PIA: 0.18"

RFD: 0.34"

ORD: 0.59"

MDW: 0.59"

STL: 0.03"

DEC: 0.09"

PAH: 0.02"

IND: 0.09"

LAF: 0.25"

VPZ: 0.69"

OKK: 0.25"

FWA: 0.28"

HAO: 0.08"

DAY: 0.13"

CMH: 0.22"

TDZ: 0.27"

CLE: 0.33"

MKG: 0.77"

GRR: 0.73"

BTL: 0.69"

ADG: 0.32"

DTW: 0.22"

PHN: 0.20"

YKF: 0.20"

YYZ: 0.26"

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Snow is still coming down pretty good here I would say just over 2" and with what ILX said it sounds like it should pick up again later this afternoon

Good friend of mine a firefighter in Decatur saying they are running like crazy right now with people forgetting how to drive. Figure that will be the same about everywhere. Rush hour in the Chicago metro area will be interesting.

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