weatherpsycho Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 GRR seems a little gun shy this time around after getting burned on the last event. They have the City of GR under an Advisory instead of a warning, for instance. I think that has to do with the fact they are not exactly sure how the LES is going to play out (like you say they got burned in some locations last time). Right now they are thinking the NNW wind LES areas will do best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 good briefing this mornin' izzi. . .informative and exciting - none-the-less....mostly due to 'ol man winter oversleeping this year... Always a fan of Izzi's write ups. Informative and enertaining! Keep em up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Also, I'm pumped to fly over this mid-latitude cyclone if we do end up going. Many photos to be taken. If not, I'll use this forum as a log while I try to survive Detroit. As long as no one has a hit for you in Detroit (or you're dealing drugs), I'm pretty sure youll survive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Not that it matters too much (but if we're going to post 18z NAM images 84 hrs out, we might as well mention the 12z on the day of), but the 12z NAM has come in slightly wetter for the immediate area around southern Lake Michigan. Everything seems to be playing out without major surprises, ratios sound like they'll be lower than initially thought though, so we'll probably need some of the banding advertised on the high-res models to materialize in order to realize higher end calls like mine. EDIT: looks like the latest RUC keeps extreme NE Illinois in the pivot zone, we'll have to monitor radar trends to see if that is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I will say that even under the weakest of returns in Southeast Minnesota its still snowing pretty good. NAM and GFS both showing light snow the rest of the day. Probably 2-2.5 inches down now. Hard to tell with the wind. Maybe another couple throughout the day. Goodluck to those to my south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I will say that even under the weakest of returns in Southeast Minnesota its still snowing pretty good. NAM and GFS both showing light snow the rest of the day. Probably 2-2.5 inches down now. Hard to tell with the wind. Maybe another couple throughout the day. Goodluck to those to my south and east. ratios have to be pretty good back there firmly entrenched in the cold, something for us further east to look forward to on the tail end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 My final call. Tried to add a little more detail to the snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 yes small flake size but very fluffy snow. Currently 10 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 I will say that even under the weakest of returns in Southeast Minnesota its still snowing pretty good. NAM and GFS both showing light snow the rest of the day. Probably 2-2.5 inches down now. Hard to tell with the wind. Maybe another couple throughout the day. Goodluck to those to my south and east. yup....chilly chilliness up your way...congrats! and a nice heavy snow report in central IL... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Small flake size indeed but it is very fluffy indeed! blowing around REALLY good too,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 yup....chilly chilliness up your way...congrats! and a nice heavy snow report in central IL... Nice indeed, given some of the early report and RUC I'm becoming increasingly confident in a period of moderate to low end heavy snow for a period this evening over Northeast Illinois. My call is still sitting on the high side but any concern of an underperformer is fading. Latest RUC through 12 hrs...still snowing over NE Illinois at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Nice indeed, given some of the early report and RUC I'm becoming increasingly confident in a period of moderate to low end heavy snow for a period this evening over Northeast Illinois. My call is still sitting on the high side but any concern of an underperformer is fading. Latest RUC through 12 hrs...still snowing over NE Illinois at this time i would be willing to bet that someone will end up with 8.5 in the area up here...maybe your back yard...maybe not....but it's a good lollipop number...hopefully becoming a consensus....never know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 rooftops white in the neighberhood. . .bolingbrook/naperville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 rooftops white in the neighberhood. . .bolingbrook/naperville Sounds like things might be an hour or two earlier than initially expected? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 The 12z RUC, 12z NAM and 11z HRRR are all fairly consistent on getting 0.25" of liquid into NE IL and NW IN by 0z. Ratios aren't great yet, though, so we're looking at 3" for most of LOT's CWA at 0z on the HRRR, but with more to come obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Looks like the leading edge of the precip will arrive around 1030-1100 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Light mist in the loop, critical thickness map shows we still have some work to do before better returns push in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Sounds like things might be an hour or two earlier than initially expected? possibly...but i'm a bit west of the city... -SN driveway/street covering quick with very little melting... mostly fine flakes....a couple larger dendrites mixed in here and there. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 possibly...but i'm a bit west of the city... -SN driveway/street covering quick with very little melting... mostly fine flakes....a couple larger dendrites mixed in here and there. . . sounds like you're off to a great start, sorta surprised that some dendrites are mixing in already...good sign. I see Gino lurking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 -SN driveway/street covering quick with very little melting... mostly fine flakes....a couple larger dendrites mixed in here and there. . . could use the the exact same report for here right now. Told people a start time in Batavia around 9am, not bad. Temp at 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 could use the the exact same report for here right now. Told people a start time in Batavia around 9am, not bad. Temp at 30. good luck buddy, doubt you'll get the thundersnow monkey off your back, but long duration daytime events are good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 could use the the exact same report for here right now. Told people a start time in Batavia around 9am, not bad. Temp at 30. nice...enjoy the day off! sounds like you're off to a great start, sorta surprised that some dendrites are mixing in already...good sign. I see Gino lurking... yeah, i was expecting it to take until 10 or so for pavement to whiten up...but hey, i'll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 sounds like you're off to a great start, sorta surprised that some dendrites are mixing in already...good sign. I see Gino lurking... Go to sleep Gino! lol We all thank you for a good AFD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Already looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Within the last hour we switched to slightly larger flakes, but we've gone back to the tiny stuff. I'll have to guess we have a couple inches. I like watching storms with dry snow and strong wind, but I hate how I can't measure it. I usually just end up averaging the other spotter totals from around Cedar Rapids and record that as my total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Go to sleep Gino! lol We all thank you for a good AFD! Wonder who is on day, would be nice to get a midday meso update. BTW HRRR is loving the northside of the city with inch an hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Wonder who is on day, would be nice to get a midday meso update. BTW HRRR is loving the northside of the city with inch an hour rates. 13z RUC has a .50" qpf bullseye over your house and still snowing through 1z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Within the last hour we switched to slightly larger flakes, but we've gone back to the tiny stuff. I'll have to guess we have a couple inches. I like watching storms with dry snow and strong wind, but I hate how I can't measure it. I usually just end up averaging the other spotter totals from around Cedar Rapids and record that as my total. a couple 1/2 mile vis spattered in there. . . IAZ007>011-017>019-026>030-037>042-050>054-066-121500- NORTHEAST IOWA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS CEDAR RAPIDS LGT SNOW 11 7 84 NW24G31 29.68S VSB 3/4 WCI -9 CHARLES CITY * LGT SNOW 10 7 85 NW20G26 29.72F WCI -8 CLINTON * CLOUDY 18 12 79 NW18 29.63R WCI 2 DECORAH * LGT SNOW 10 7 85 NW18G24 29.68S VSB 1 WCI -8 DUBUQUE SNOW 14 11 87 NW15 29.59S VSB 1/2 WCI -1 MONTICELLO * SNOW 14 9 79 NW15G23 29.65S VSB 1/2 WCI -1 WATERLOO LGT SNOW 11 7 84 NW23G31 29.73S VSB 1 WCI -9 $$ IAZ064-065-067-068-078-121500- EAST CENTRAL IOWA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DAVENPORT LGT SNOW 16 10 77 NW17G26 29.63S VSB 3/4 WCI 0 IOWA CITY SNOW 12 9 85 NW16G29 29.71F VSB 1/2 WCI -4 MT. PLEASANT * LGT SNOW 14 10 85 NW17G24 29.71F VSB 1 WCI -3 MUSCATINE * LGT SNOW 16 9 73 NW23G33 29.68F WCI -2 QUAD CITIES LGT SNOW 16 12 84 W17G31 29.63F VSB 3/4 WCI 0 $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 a few higher returns in 20-28dbz range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 Latest RPM snowfall forecast http://ow.ly/i/pCaq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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