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Thursday/Friday the 13th Clipper

burgertime

By burgertime,
in Southeastern States

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

They have a 60% chance of snow with up to an inch accumulation forecasted for my part of west Knoxville right now. We'll see if anything decides to stick or not.

Also, the hi-res WRF doesn't always pick up on orographic precip that happens a lot with clippers and NW Flow events in this area. I've seen many times where precip builds enough to give us a quick inch and yet it's light enough that the radar has to be adjusted for lighter echos.

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LithiaWx

LithiaWx

Posted
Posted

So if I was to actually go chase these flakes, where does the consensus believe my best chances are? Mind you I don't want to drive any more than two hours from my location.

I've never been there but I've seen one poster on here post some snowy images of Frosty Mountain in Georgia.

http://maps.google.com/maps?hl=en&q=frosty+mountain+georgia&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_cp.,cf.osb&biw=747&bih=519&um=1&ie=UTF-8&hq=&hnear=0x885f76ff73498997:0x22971dde4fd10bea,Frosty+Mountain&gl=us&ei=RQ0OT_aBJM6ctwezy82nBQ&sa=X&oi=geocode_result&ct=title&resnum=1&ved=0CCsQ8gEwAA

Other than that idk perhaps head to the NE mountains probably you best bet.

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

Posted
Posted

who cares if we have ten threads, if you don't want to post in it or look at it then don't. Sound like a bunch of kids arguing over silly things. Good job burger maybe we will be surprised when it comes. This is not to you ams30721, it was to audio. Seems when no wintry weather all people want to do is complain about something. Start all the threads you want if mods don't like them they will delete them.

Whoaa....no need for any animosity!! I wasn't complaining either, just was commenting on how clipper systems are usually not that big of a deal for those of us in N. Ga. south of the higher elevations. Sorry.....should have explained myself better.

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
Posted

Whoaa....no need for any animosity!! I wasn't complaining either, just was commenting on how clipper systems are usually not that big of a deal for those of us in N. Ga. south of the higher elevations. Sorry.....should have explained myself better.

:lol: i know what you mean there have been alot on here that complain when a thread is started all the time but burger has been on here for a while.= so figured he knows when to start one. I am not looking for much from it either but just in case we are surprised we now have thread on it

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nrgjeff

nrgjeff

Posted
Posted

MRX has a nice handle on it. Like the caution at lower elevations but putting the mountains in an advisory. Sorry ATL and anyone in NC east of the Apps. Agree the westerly component kills. GSP prolly is concerned that precip ends before it can change at lower elevations. In that part of the world it will be all elevation driven so why send the public to wipe the milk, eggs and bread? Over in Tenn figure Knoxville has a shot at flurries, and the Tri-Cities might see a dusting. Drizzle in Chattanooga would not surprise me, lol.

Up in the mountains is why this event certainly justifies a thread. Moisture from today's mild rain should be left over. The key here is the real cold front is also carrying some moisture of its own. 850 temps crash well before upslope flow subsides. Should be several hours of nice snow in the mountains above 3,000 FT, and I really like above 4,000 FT northwest-facing slopes. I'm still a bear here in Chatt but I like some NC mountain snow. Local six inch amounts would not surprise above 4,000 FT. Last time mountains surprised high with "no moisture." Remember 552 thicknesses (00Z panel with still good upward motion) gets it done above 4,000 FT.

We are heading up to Beech/Sugar for the 3-day weekend! :ski:

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DaculaWeather

DaculaWeather

Posted
Posted

Huntsville likes the chances:

SPEAKING OF WHICH...THE STRONG ARCTIC FRONT IS OBVIOUS IN VIS

IMAGERY AND OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL

PLAINS. THE CURRENT POSN IS FROM WATERLOO IA THRU KANSAS CITY MO TO

ABOUT OKLAHOMA CITY OK. THERE IS ONLY A NARROW ZONE OF CLEAR SKY

BETWEEN SYSTEMS...AND THIS WILL LIKELY FILL IN TONIGHT. THE UPPER

TROF WAS DROPPING THRU THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO...AND WILL PROVIDE

STRONG DIFFERENTIAL PVA AND -DIV Q FIELDS ACROSS THE REGION ON THU.

TOTAL DEFORMATION IN UPPER LEVELS (~600 MB) INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY

BETWEEN 21-00Z SUGGESTING THIS MAY BE THE PERIOD OF BEST UVV. ALL

COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO SFC-9H FLOW ALONG THE

CUMBERLAND PLATEAU SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW

EVENT LATE THU AFTN INTO THE EARLY EVENING...MAINLY IN OUR PLATEAU

COUNTIES. THE STRONG THERMAL ZONE ALONG THE FRONT SUGGESTS A RAPID

TRANSITION FROM RA TO SN THU AFTN...MAINLY FROM 17-20Z IN NWRN AL AND

AREAS ABV 1400FT ELEV...TO AREAWIDE BY 21Z. FOR NOW...HAVE INCREASED

SNOW ACCUMS TO 0.2-0.5 INCHES ON THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU FOR THU

AFTN/EVNG. HOWEVER...THIS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER IF THE

COLD AIR CAN ARRIVE JUST A BIT QUICKER ON THU. THE UPSLOPE FLOW MAY

ALSO KEEP A PERSISTENT SET OF SHSN ON THE PLATEAU DURING THE EVENING

HOURS...WITH AREA SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING CAPE VALUES OF 30-50 J/KG AOB

825MB.

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Gastonwxman

Gastonwxman

Posted
Posted

GSP thinking perhaps some flakes mixing in for the overnight period tomorrow...:

Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after midnight, then gradually ending. Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind 10 to 17 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

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audioguy3107

audioguy3107

Posted
Posted

:lol: i know what you mean there have been alot on here that complain when a thread is started all the time but burger has been on here for a while.= so figured he knows when to start one. I am not looking for much from it either but just in case we are surprised we now have thread on it

Yeah, that's true.....I guess after watching interesting systems over the last few years, we've actually gotten a little spoiled! Anyway, back on topic and who knows, someone may get a decent surprise tomorrow night.

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DAWGNKITTEN

DAWGNKITTEN

Posted
Posted

GSP thinking perhaps some flakes mixing in for the overnight period tomorrow...:

Thursday Night: A slight chance of rain showers, mixing with snow after midnight, then gradually ending. Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. South wind 10 to 17 mph becoming west. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

GSP thinking the same for me, but I'm up to 40%....

Thursday Night: A chance of rain showers before 10pm, then a chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. West wind around 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

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Local Yokel Wx

Local Yokel Wx

Posted
Posted

I was reading another blog saying that the temp is expected to drop some 10-20 degrees in a matter of 1-2 hours. Can any mets or someone who has heard anything similar to this chime in.

It's the front that will bring in the cold temps in such a hurry. Flash freezing is not uncommon several times a year in our area with fast moving fronts.

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Local Yokel Wx

Local Yokel Wx

Posted
Posted

I'm heading to Sylva, NC on Friday morning. I wish we were going on Thursday now so I could atleast some of the snow showers. I'm affraid by the time I get there it'll be over.

Right on! I live 6 min from Sylva. What ya heading this way for?

And speaking of snow, you will def see it on the ground while driving on 74, especially over Balsam.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

I think I may have a true winner................Brasstown Bald Mountain > 4000'. :google:

Only problem is that the park entrance road could be closed so that would be quite the haul from your area.

The hwy 136 road I mentioned was the one that takes you by the Georgia highlands and burnt mountain.

But if you can get to the top of brasstown bald then that would be gold. 4,600+ ft elevation.

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franklin NCwx

franklin NCwx

Posted
Posted

Only problem is that the park entrance road could be closed so that would be quite the haul from your area.

The hwy 136 road I mentioned was the one that takes you by the Georgia highlands and burnt mountain.

But if you can get to the top of brasstown bald then that would be gold. 4,600+ ft elevation.

Highland nc is over 4000' he could even get up to around 4600 on some of the ridges around highlands by car. If he wants to walk he can get over 5000'

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rduwx

rduwx

Posted
Posted

Right on! I live 6 min from Sylva. What ya heading this way for?

And speaking of snow, you will def see it on the ground while driving on 74, especially over Balsam.

My wife's parents live there so we're there atleast 3 times a year. I just would like to be there while it falls, that's what I enjoy to most!

I'm.in the next town over.

Oh yeah, we go to Franklin a lot. My wife's uncle lives in Franklin and the in-laws have a rental house over there.

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MotoWeatherman

MotoWeatherman

Posted
Posted

0z NAM still looks decent for flurries and snow showers across N GA and also across eastern TN and WNC. I'm still going for 1-4" across the favored upslope areas of WNC with dusting to 1" pretty much everywhere else in WNC. I think a few spots will eek out 1" in TN and GA.

850mb RH and 850mb Temps look good for snow growth.

post-347-0-20566400-1326335096.gif

post-347-0-75663800-1326335100.gif

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valkhorn

valkhorn

Posted
Posted

Only problem is that the park entrance road could be closed so that would be quite the haul from your area.

The hwy 136 road I mentioned was the one that takes you by the Georgia highlands and burnt mountain.

But if you can get to the top of brasstown bald then that would be gold. 4,600+ ft elevation.

I know they close 441 through the Smoky Mountains at the drop of a hat - but if you're willing to brave a 7 mile hike each way you can get to Newfound Gap through the Sugarland trail.

If you're in East TN and don't want to stay where you are, I'd recommend the higher areas near Wise and Abingdon, VA. I know of several good spots up there that have seen significant snow from upslope events.

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AcworthWx

AcworthWx

Posted
Posted

That would be a decent spot. I was just trying to find a place closer to home. :)

Thanks for all the suggestions. This is my first choice as well. I know plenty of spots in NC that would be fun, but want something closer plus I like to visit new places. You do have a point about the gate possibly being closed, but I call up there tomorrow to find out for sure. Plus, I rather like going for hikes and know that a lot of Astronomers visit the Lookout during the wee hours of the night.

Now as for Emerson's comment, I have a Subaru, so I shouldn't have any issues and I grew up driving in blinding snow in Tahoe (They don't call it Sierra Cement for nothing) and the Sierra's. I've learned over the years exactly what I should/shouldn't do while driving in snow/ice.

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